With last week's blowout in the rear-view mirror, we have what looks to be a compelling Thursday Night game between the Lions and Packers. These teams sit atop the NFC North with identical 2-1 records, and a win in Lambeau would go a long way towards the Lions' odds of winning the division. Green Bay is out for revenge after the Lions ended their season — and Aaron Rodgers' tenure — in Week 18 last year.
The Packers see the 2023 debut of Christian Watson and get Aaron Jones back from injury, while still playing without starting tackle David Bakhtiari. Detroit gets David Montgomery back, with two starting linemen on the optimistic side of questionable.
Here's how we're live betting Thursday Night Football in Week 4.
Thursday Night Football Live Betting Scenario to Watch For
We Go as the Lions Go — LIVE BET MADE, UNDER 52.5 (-120, DraftKings)
The Lions certainly fit our criteria for the under here, with a 27-3 lead shortly before halftime. We're rapidly approaching "pull the starters" territory for Detroit, while Green Bay can't get anything going offensively. We'll take the under 52.5 (-120) at DraftKings.
Here's how we broke down the live betting scenarios for this game before kickoff:
Detroit has only run 10 offensive plays when down multiple scores this season, but we can get a glimpse at how they're likely to play by incorporating 2022 data as well.
Since the start of last season, the Lions have been the eighth fastest team when playing from behind. That's not because Detroit plays quickly overall. They ranked near the middle of the pack (15th) in pace when games are within a touchdown in either direction, and slightly below average when playing from in front (18th).
That paints the picture of a fairly traditional pace from Detroit: speeding things up when playing from behind, and taking their foot off the gas with a lead.
Contrast that with the Packers, who show less variation in their method of attack. They're slow no matter what the scoreboard says, ranking in the bottom five in all situations since the beginning of 2022. While the shift from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love under center likely impacts that a bit, they've still played on the slow side this season.
Therefore, the determining factor in how quickly this game plays is the Lions. That means we'll be looking to bet overs if they trail, and unders if they lead — especially if that aligns with movement on the live total.
This is also a spot where if the Lions move to underdogs on the spread, it's worth considering a live bet. Detroit has been tough against the run this year, which will make it harder for the Packers to hold onto leads — especially given the state of their offensive line.
The ideal scenario here is some early scoring from Detroit that drives up the total and leads us to the under, though. The vast majority of the injuries on both teams are to offensive players, and even if key pieces (Watson, Montgomery, Jones) return, they're likely to be less effective than usual. The pregame line is a middling 45.5, but some quick scores could see it approach 50. We'd be comfortable with the under even if this one remains close, just not with the Packers out in front.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
