Between bye weeks and the early game in Germany, we had just 10 games on Sunday afternoon, plus of course Sunday Night Football to cover.
We could narrow our focus a bit with less games on the docket, allowing us to pick out our top game from each window. This week, we have some spots where we'll only be betting if the game ends up in a specific scenario, rather than trying to make a pick no matter what. Let's get to it.
NFL Live Betting for Week 9 Sunday Night Football
Bills at Bengals: Over With a Bengals Lead, Under With a Bills Lead
This one isn't a great live betting spot. Both offenses are better at throwing than running, and both rank top-five in PROE. Both defenses are tougher to throw against than run against — but the Bengals are more extreme, with a better pass defense and worse run defense by DVOA than Buffalo.
In theory at least, that means a scenario with Buffalo running more should lead to more points. We're targeting the opposite scenario, though, for a couple of (related) reasons.
First is the pace splits. Buffalo plays slower with a lead than Cincinnati, but faster when trailing. That means that games the Bills control should play slower than games the Bengals control. For what it's worth, both play at an identical pace when the game is within seven points, just a tick behind the league average (hence no live-betting edge in close games.)
With both teams being decidedly pass heavy, that means we can't really count on the Bills to exploit their rushing edge offensively in scenarios where they lead. At least not enough to counteract the pace splits.
We'd need a lot to go right to pull the trigger in either of these scenarios, including line movement from the pregame total of 50.5 Keep an eye on fluky situations as well, which could lead to some undue movement to the total. Of course, sometimes the best bet is to keep your money in your proverbial pocket, so don't force anything here.
The Live Bets We've Already Made in Week 9
Colts at Panthers: Overs, Unless Carolina Leads — LIVE BET MADE, Under 39.5 (-128, FanDuel)
We were interested in the over with the Colts controlling this game, but it's time to call an audible. Carolina has produced just 45 net yards offensively, and are lucky to have the three points they currently scored. That field goal drive came from great field position following a big kickoff return, not exactly a repeatable process. The best line is under 39.5, -128 on FanDuel.
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
This game has serious shootout potential, in no small part thanks to the Colts' league-leading overall pace. With a not-awful 3-5 record and 30th ranked PROE, this reflects an actual desire to play fast, not just circumstances forcing them to. They play considerably faster than average in all scenarios, so it's up to the Panthers to dictate the pace.
Carolina ranks roughly average in overall pace, but with extremely wide splits. They're a slow-paced team in close games or when leading (to various degrees) but more than three seconds faster than average once they fall behind. This reflects a desire to be a run-first team, but plenty of negative game scripts forcing them out of it.
Carolina also features the league's worst rushing defense. That's a key part of this angle, because the Colts should have no problem moving the ball on the ground. However, if the Panthers go up big, Indianapolis would be forced to throw the ball more, which they've been less effective at this season.
The Panthers passing attack has also started to show some signs of improvement behind rookie quarterback Bryce Young, while their running game ranks 29th in DVOA with no signs of improvement. All told, this game will be faster and more efficient with the Colts running and Panthers throwing.
The pregame total is 45, but we'd be willing to eat some reverse line movement if everything else is pointing the right direction. This one has sneaky shootout potential in the right circumstances, so we won't sweat taking an over in the upper 40s if the signs are pointing that direction.
Cardinals at Browns: Unders With a Browns Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Under 33.5 (-120, FanDuel)
The tipped pass from Deshaun Watson that Amari Cooper hauled in for a touchdown put them up 10-0 over the Cardinals, who've been unable to get anything going with 21 yards of total offense. That's exactly what we're looking for in taking the under, where the best line is at FanDuel, under 33.5 (-120).
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
This one is fairly straightforward and aligns nicely in terms of both pace of play and relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. It's also conveniently the overwhelmingly likely way this one plays out, with Cleveland favored by 12.5 points coming into the game.
Let's start with the pace. Both teams rank bottom-five in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season, leading to relatively slow play. Cleveland is built around the run game, though the loss of Nick Chubb has made those plans harder to execute. Arizona may end up a more pass heavy team at some point — but likely not until next week, when Kyler Murray is set to make his season debut.
The Browns play about a second slower than league average overall but slightly above average in close games or when trailing. That's balanced out by their pace when leading, which is by far the slowest in the NFL. At 34.8 seconds, it's more than six seconds slower than average. The Cardinals play a bit faster than average while trailing, but not nearly enough to overcome how slow Cleveland operates.
From a matchup standpoint, it's hard to see the Cardinals doing much to catch up. They're taking on a Browns pass defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA in the NFL, while starting Clayton Tune at quarterback. While the Browns may have some success against the Cardinals bad run defense, Cleveland has been a below-average rushing offense without Chubb this season.
We'll be fairly flexible with when we place this bet, looking for any situation where the Browns are up multiple scores — or up seven with the ball — and the total is above the pregame 38.
Bucs at Texans: Overs With a Texans Lead, Possibly in a Close Game — NO LIVE BET MADE
This one isn't quite as perfect of a setup. Both teams are better offensively when throwing the ball and better defensively against the run. That means the trailing team is likely to have more success offensively — but that's balanced out by the leading team struggling more.
However, the pace splits paint a clear picture. The Texans are about a second faster than average when playing from in front, while the Bucs are about three seconds faster than average from behind. All told, that averages out to a game that plays about two seconds quicker than the typical NFL game when one team is up multiple scores.
This one is also set to play faster than average while close, but not by nearly as much. The hope there is that both teams lean on the passing attack during a close game, though that's more wishful thinking than firm projection. Houston ranks well below Tampa in PROE, so a slight Bucs lead is probably better than a slight Texans lead. Either way, we'd need a lot to go right before considering this angle.
With the Texans slight favorites, all scenarios are somewhat possible in this one. As always, we want to time it with a better number than the 40 being offered pregame.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
