NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 13
Week 13 is the second-last week with byes as six teams get their week off: the Ravens, Giants, Vikings, Bears, Bills and Raiders. That leaves 13 matchups, beginning with a matchup of two would-be playoff teams as the Seahawks visit the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
Here are my thoughts on all 13 matchups, including the five NFL picks and predictions I’ve already made for Week 13.
My picks this season are 37-26-2 (58.7%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 13 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Seahawks vs. Cowboys
It’s always fascinating to see just how far the market can run when one team is in rapid decline and the other is quickly improving. At what point do you come back on the underdog and try to catch the falling knife? The Cowboys opened at -6.5 at multiple books, and they’ve gotten steamed straight through -7 and may reach -10 by kickoff on Thursday night.
You only have to flashback to last week for the same thing. San Francisco opened at -5.5 in Seattle and quickly got bet up to -7/-7.5 before closing right around -7. Dallas opened at -9.5 against Washington on Thanksgiving and closed at -13.5. The steam indicated the clear right side as both Dallas and San Francisco cruised to blowout victories on the holiday.
Based on lookaheads, Dallas is currently priced as the second-best team in the NFC, ahead of Philadelphia. They’ve certainly played like that this season as the Cowboys won the yardage and box score by 100 yards in Philly last month. Dallas has seven wins by 20 or more points, which are the most of any team in the NFL.
The Cowboys took a 32-point loss in San Francisco and still have the best Point Differential. Since their bye week, Dak Prescott is the best QB in the NFL in EPA per play and Success Rate. The offense is throwing more, Prescott is carving up every secondary, and once they get a lead, Dallas’ pass rush is wrecking teams.
The Seahawks probably should have beaten the Rams two weeks ago, but the offense created next to nothing against the 49ers at home last week. Geno Smith averages 5.1 yards per attempt with three Big Time Throws and 10 Turnover Worthy Plays when pressured this season. He’s sure to face a lot of pressure in Dallas.
It’s really hard to make the case for Seattle keeping this game competitive on Thursday. If the line gets to +10, I’d be tempted to come back on the Seahawks though.
Verdict: Pass
The Passes
Chargers vs. Patriots
Who is betting the Chargers -6 on the road here?
The defense is one of the most schematically flawed and poor tackling units in the entire NFL. There are constant missed assignments and only Baltimore turnovers kept the Ravens from scoring more on Sunday Night Football.
The Chargers have invested a lot of money and draft capital in the offensive line and it grades out quite poorly. Quentin Johnston was benched on Sunday for a practice squad signee, Keenan Allen is the only functional receiver on the roster and this version of the Chargers is unlikely to live up to its power rating as a favorite given the current roster construction.
Meanwhile, you could convince me that the Patriots are trying to lose games based on how that game played out on Sunday against the Giants. This is the ugliest game on the board from a side and total perspective and unless it gets above seven, I will be passing here.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs. Saints
After two straight weeks successfully fading the Lions, there’s no value in backing New Orleans at home here. For starters, it’s still indoor Jared Goff, where he’s considerably better than in the outdoor conditions. The Saints secondary has a ton of injuries and the wide receiver room is extremely banged up. Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed all are likely out for this game and it’s going to be really hard for Derek Carr and all of the Saints backups to keep up with Detroit’s still effective offense if they have no weapons at all.
The Lions have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the last month, but they could get right here facing a team with zero offensive firepower. Unless the Saints find a ton of rushing success, the offense might be stuck on Sunday.
Verdict: Pass
Falcons vs. Jets
The Falcons are likely to be one of the squarest plays on the board this weekend, but it’s hard to price the Jets offense low enough given how bad it has been. The NFL average for series success rate is 70% on offense, which means that offenses turn a first-and-10 into another first down or touchdown 70% of the time league-wide.
The Patriots rank 30th at 65%, which is really bad and why they rank in the bottom three in yards per drive on offense. The Giants are 31st at 60% and the Jets are all the way down at 58%.
The Falcons run defense has held up pretty well this year and the Jets offensive line injuries have rendered the offense completely ineffective. The only chance the Jets have here is Desmond Ridder turnovers.
Laying chalk on the road with a 35-point total is pretty crazy, but Tim Boyle is so bad that I just might do it. At some point, we have to be nearing quitting or exhaustion time for the Jets defense.
Verdict: Pass
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
There’s only two spots I’ve bet Carolina this year — the home opener against New Orleans on Monday Night Football and immediately off the bye against the red-hot Texans. If you were looking for a third, one last all-in spot in an otherwise lost season, this would be it. The team fired Frank Reich and then interim coach Chris Tabor fired both Josh McCown and Duce Staley from the offensive staff. That makes them considerably more unpredictable in this game against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense. The Panthers have a terrible run defense on paper, but Tampa Bay can’t really run on anyone because of its offensive line woes.
One interesting tidbit that came out today was that Reich had little interest in integrating heavy read option and RPO plays to try to find some offense. Maybe the interim will try new things and find some success. There’s nowhere to go but up. We even saw last year when Jeff Saturday came in with no coaching experience at all that the Colts rallied for one game and beat the Raiders before sinking back down to reality.
If you can stomach it, +6 is too many points for Carolina here.
Verdict: Lean Carolina +6
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Bengals vs. Jaguars
The best Wong teaser spot on the board is Jacksonville from eight down to two. This game lost a lot of its potential luster with the injury to Joe Burrow and the Jaguars defense is a really tough matchup for the Bengals offense with Browning. You can’t really run the ball at all on this defensive scheme for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are No. 1 in rush defense DVOA and are likely to employ the same defensive principles they used against past backups.
Jacksonville completely shut down the Colts offense and the Titans offense in two of their last three meetings. Both offenses wanted to run the ball, but the Jaguars rarely left base defense. They kept the box stacked and while they didn’t blitz, it forced Minshew and Levis to be precise passers. It shut down both offenses.
Two weeks ago, Jacksonville laid seven to Tennessee and rolled. Cincinnati is currently more than a point worse than the Titans. Instead of laying eight, I prefer the teaser.
Verdict: Pass, tease Jacksonville to -2
The Leans
Dolphins vs. Commanders
Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t played anywhere near his best football in the last two games against the Raiders and Jets. Now, he travels to Maryland to face the Commanders and there’s potential rain in the forecast. The Commanders’ defense has been so bad against Prescott, Hurts, Smith and Tommy DeVito in the last month that Ron Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. It’s far more likely just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic for the Commanders secondary, but you could see some new wrinkles or a dead cat bounce to try to throw off the Dolphins timing.
Miami lost Jaelen Phillips to injury on the MetLife turf last week, but the Dolphins defense has been slowly trending up in the last month. You pretty much need two elite offenses in the 2023 NFL to warrant a total in the 50s.
As bad as Washington’s defense is, I’d monitor the weather and look to play the under 50.5. If an indoor total in Dallas closed 48 on Thanksgiving, extended rest for Washington shouldn’t have this total multiple points higher. If the rain conditions worsen ahead of kickoff here, I’ll fire on any total above 50. For now, I’ll wait to see if a 51 or 51.5 pops before betting this ugly under.
Verdict: Lean Under 50.5, play 51.5
Broncos vs. Texans
A popular pick release group gave out Houston and the Texans got steamed straight through three on Tuesday and moved from the “bet” part of this column into the “lean” section. Unless it gets back to three, I won’t have any action on this game as the line should be right around four for me.
It’s true that the Broncos defense has made some real improvements since Week 6. In fact, the Broncos rank in the top 10 by overall DVOA since Week 6. They’ve pulled off some impressive wins, including against the Bills, Chiefs, Vikings and Browns. But we can’t ignore all of the bounces that have gone their way in that same timeframe.
Denver has run extremely well in terms of turnover differential, and the offense has benefitted from a ton of short fields as a result. Since Week 6, the Broncos defense is still just 29th in success rate. The defense ranks in the top 10 in DVOA and EPA per play, but if you remove highly volatile turnovers from the sample, then the defense is just 22nd in EPA per play.
The Broncos have improved their defense but it’s still a below-average unit for me. Now on the road after four straight wins, you’re at the peak of the market on Denver. Regression looms and the Texans offense should have success moving the ball consistently. Denver’s offense still ranks in the bottom six in the NFL once off the script.
Verdict: Lean Houston -3.5, bet at -3
NFL Week 13 Picks
Cardinals vs. Steelers
The Steelers offense eclipsed 400 yards of offense in last week’s win against Cincinnati, which they hadn’t done in 58 games and never once accomplished under recently fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
There was a major difference in Kenny Pickett’s willingness to target and use the middle of the field against a soft Cincinnati defense last week. His pass chart in Week 11 when compared to Week 12 shows the increased usage.
And here's Week 12:
You can see how the narrative is developing now. The Steelers offense is fixed, Canada was the only problem, and now Pittsburgh should be properly upgraded.
However, the market has certainly taken notice of the Steelers’ offensive explosion against the Bengals. The Steelers were -3/3.5 on the lookahead against the Cardinals last week, and now they’re laying 5.5 points and got as high as -6 on Monday.
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Colts vs. Titans
The Colts have won three consecutive games to vault themselves into the AFC playoff picture despite a medley of defensive injuries and inconsistent play from Gardner Minshew at quarterback.
The Colts received yet another setback Tuesday as Jonathan Taylor was ruled out for up to 2-3 weeks with a thumb injury. Taylor is a loss in creativity and reliability for the Colts offense, but don’t discredit the work Zack Moss has done in his place this year. In fact, Moss has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in this offense, compared to 4.1 for Taylor.
The real story is that the Colts offensive line has made solid improvements year over year. The line had seen real regression in the last 1.5 seasons, but the Colts offensive line is top five in PFF Run Block Grading and top 10 in Pass Block Grading. The Colts have real advantages in the trench on both sides of the ball, and that will enable them to win this game on the road.
The loss of Taylor isn’t as relevant here because it’s so difficult to run the ball on Tennessee anyway. They’ve slid down a bit in some of the run-stop ratings, but the Titans remain second in Rush DVOA allowed.
The Colts defensive line should generate more pressure on Will Levis than the Titans do on Minshew. Indianapolis has a top 10 unit in both Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Pass Rush Grading.
The Titans finally found some offensive life because they faced one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and Derrick Henry rumbled into the end zone a couple times. However, it’s much harder to replicate that on the Colts’ defensive front.
The weakness for the Colts defense is in the secondary, and Levis grades considerably worse than even Minshew in Success Rate and Adjusted EPA per play.
Given their advantage at quarterback and in the trenches, the Colts should be bigger favorites to win this and move to 7-5 in the heart of the AFC playoff race.
Browns vs. Rams
No one is more relieved to see Myles Garrett on the injury report than Rams quarterback Matt Stafford. The Rams decimated the Cardinals secondary last week, and now Stafford may not have to face one of the three best defensive players on Earth.
Garrett said he heard something pop in his shoulder during the game on Sunday, and then the MRI revealed no structural damage.
The plan is for Garrett to play through the pain, as long as he can handle the soreness. But a limited Garrett dramatically changes the outlook for the NFL’s best defense. He’s such a massive disruptor and someone the entire offense has to scheme around that the Browns defense will regress significantly without him.
The market is pricing this Browns defense at a god-tier level right now, and it’s just not sustainable as they start to play better quarterbacks. In the modern NFL, good quarterbacks will move the ball if they’re playing well and have time in the pocket. If Garrett isn’t 100% or can’t play, Rams -3.5 is stealing given the massive gulf in the quality of quarterbacks.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a concussion and is more likely than not to miss this game. That means PJ Walker will start, who is 38th out of 41 quarterbacks in efficiency (one spot ahead of DTR).
The Ravens, Seahawks and even Broncos have moved the ball at times on this defense. If the Rams get to 20, it’s hard to see how they don’t cover this spread.
49ers vs. Eagles
The unquestioned game of the week in the NFL is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday as the best team in the NFL (by market power rating) visits the team with the best record in the NFL.
The Eagles have won four consecutive games despite being outgained in all four, and none were more extreme than the Sunday comeback against the Bills. The Eagles threw for just 33 yards in the first half, trailed 17-7 at the break and allowed 500 yards of offense to Buffalo yet came back to tie the game late in regulation and walk it off in overtime.
The Eagles unquestionably have some high-leverage advantages over other teams because they’re well-run as an organization. High-leverage third and fourth downs give them an edge in red-zone and short-down sequences. Their defensive line depth also keeps their top rushers fresh for key downs late in games to keep pressure on the opposing quarterback.
When the 49ers have been healthy this year, they’ve moved the ball up and down the field on every defense they’ve faced. Dropping 42 points on the Cowboys was especially impressive, and the 49ers have scored at least 27 in every other game that Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have started and finished.
Jalen Hurts is the MVP favorite because the Eagles have the best record, but Brock Purdy has been the most efficient passer in the NFL. Purdy has a 56.6% Dropback Success Rate this season, which is 3.2% better than every other passer in the NFL.
The gap between Purdy and the second-most efficient QB (Dak Prescott) is as big as the gap between Prescott and Hurts in seventh. San Francisco’s offense is elite at using the middle of the field, whereas Philadelphia is weakest defensively.
The idea you’ll hear is that the Eagles defensive line can generate pressure on Purdy and rattle him into mistakes. Even when pressured this year, Purdy is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and has eight Big Time Throws.
The market has been too high on the Eagles defense for most of the season — especially the secondary — and instead of laying points with the 49ers on the road, I’m targeting their team total instead.
The Eagles defense played 90+ plays, and the 49ers have extra rest to get ready for this one. Philadelphia may score enough to keep up, but I’m betting on San Francisco to score early and often in Philadelphia.
Chiefs vs. Packers
This column was ahead of the curve on the Packers, and we’re happy to see that the rest of the league is finally coming around to the improved play of quarterback Jordan Love and that the Packers are undervalued in the market.
This primetime game will be a difficult test for Love, who had success the last three games against the Steelers, Chargers and Lions and will now face a much tougher pass defense this week.
Love ranks inside the top five in EPA per play, top five in Success Rate and top five in EPA + CPOE composite since Week 9. PFF graded him as one of the three best QBs in the NFL in the Week 12 win against Detroit.
The Lions secondary has plenty of holes that Love exploited, but there’s been a steady upward progression for Love in this offense.
The Chiefs closed at -8.5 on Sunday against the Raiders. The market here is suggesting that the Packers are only two points better than the Raiders, and I think the gap is at least another point.
The Packers enter this game with extra rest from their Thanksgiving victory in Detroit, and that means a chance to get some key players back. Rudy Ford, Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell are all key parts of this Packer defense who missed last week and could be back on 10 days of rest.
Aaron Jones is less likely to play as he is week-to-week with an MCL sprain, but the Packers offense is finding weapons on the outside with the recent emergence of Jayden Reed. It’s a young offense, but there’s been one constant: elite offensive line play.
The Packers are a top-five offensive line by every metric, and that’s a key in slowing down an improved Kansas City pass rush.
Patrick Mahomes dropped back 31 times against the Raiders, and there were only four targets to non-Rashee Rice wideouts. The offense is prioritizing backs and tight ends, but that had more to do with the Raiders’ passive scheme than any real breakthrough for Kansas City.
The spread remains inflated in Green Bay, and I’ll be betting the Packers once again while also targeting the second half under.
Chiefs second-half unders are now 11-0 this season after a sweaty victory in Las Vegas on Sunday.
