Let's wrap up NFL Week 2 on a solid note with my favorite player prop and Monday Night Football pick for tonight's game between the Eagles and Falcons.
I think this number is an overreaction to a couple of absolutely brutal plays by Kirk Cousins in Week 1 against the Steelers. However, he's had a week to analyze them and heal his heel, and there were some bright spots in the performance, too.
His touchdown pass to Kyle Pitts came after evading pressure, rolling out, and throwing a well-placed and well-paced pass on the run off of his injured foot.
The Eagles' defense that he will face tonight has had its struggles in the secondary, and while Vic Fangio was brought in as the new defensive coordinator, t may still take this unit another game or two to adapt to his complex schemes.
James Bradberry is still on injured reserve, Darius Slay is aging, Avonte Maddox has always been suspect at nickel, and Quinyon Mitchell — who had a strong Week 1 and looks to be a star in the making — is still a rookie playing in only his second NFL game.
Philly defended only four of the 35 pass attempts it faced in Week 1, which is slightly below league average. That's after a year where the Eagles ranked 19th in passes defended. Meanwhile, Cousins did have a terrible Week 1, throwing five defended balls himself, but should regress to his longer-term average — which is also right around league average.
I'm buying because of the overreaction, as +135 is simply too long. I have fair price on this at around +120, so we're just playing the pricing game with this one.
