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Honestly, this just seems like a bad line.
Tucker has averaged 1.95 made field goals per game over the last five years, including 2.1 since the start of 2021. The Bengals allowed 2.0 made field goals per game last season. Kicking luck against was neutral for the Bengals, so they didn't give up more made field goals than expected based off number of attempts.
The Ravens went for it on fourth down right in line with league average, so there are no tendencies that suggest an under.
I project a 49.8% chance of Tucker go over and would bet to +115.
Washington was 14th in passing up field-goal attempts vs. expected and third in two-point attempt rate in 2022.
The Commanders are more likely to go for it on fourth down and pass up extra points as an underdog than as a favorite.
The Broncos are the unluckier team in this game, according to our Luck Rankings (Luck Gap 75.6%), meaning they're more likely to cover.
This implies an even better chance than the spread suggests that Washington is playing from behind, leaning into its tendencies to avoid FGs and PATs even more.
I project Slye to stay under 54.9% of the time and would bet to -105.
