We're back, finally, with my NFL Week 1 preview and by best NFL Week 1 bets and NFL predictions, and we've got quite the bet slip for Sunday.
I'm on four underdogs against the spread, one moneyline and an under for what could be an ugly game in Atlanta. That gives us a nice 6-pack of NFL best bets across the board.
Speaking of the board, let's take a quick look at the latest NFL odds before I share my picks for Sunday. It should be an exciting day of football, as the biggest spread currently is Bengals -8 over the Patriots. The spread on 10 games in Week 1 is 4 points or fewer, and there are 3 more games that are within a touchdown.
NFL Week 1 over/unders are a little more spread out, as we've got as low as 39.5 for Raiders vs. Chargers and as high as 52.5 for Sunday Night Football. Funny enough, the single bet getting the highest percentage of bets so far today according to our public betting page is that over in LV vs. LA, which is seeing 89% of bets so far.
That's enough intro. It's best bets time. Let's get this shmoney!
Week 1 NFL Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NFL Week 1 Preview
Underdog NFL Week 1 Bets
The Panthers made massive improvements on offense around last year’s No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, starting with head coach Dave Canales, who coaxed career seasons out of Geno Smith in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023. They also added one of the best separators in the game in wide receiver Diontae Johnson and another explosive playmaker at receiver in first-round pick Xavier Leggette.
Perhaps even more importantly for a short quarterback like Young, they addressed their interior line with the signing of Robert Hunt, who graded out sixth-best of 79 guards at PFF, and Damien Lewis (37th of 79).
Meanwhile, the Saints moved on from offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, which should pay dividends in the long term but could cost them in the short term, as Derek Carr tends to struggle early on in new offensive systems.
Of more concern to Carr is that the Saints enter the year with PFF’s No. 32-ranked offensive line. Carr’s numbers under pressure last season were abysmal: 49.0% completion rate, 6.1 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, three INTs, and a 17.8% sack rate on 183 dropbacks.
Per our Action Labs data, Dennis Allen — the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired — is 8-16-1 (33%) ATS as a favorite, while Carr isn’t much better at 21-37-2 (36%). And Week 1 Divisional ‘dogs that did not make the prior postseason are 60-25-2 (70%) since 2005, covering by 4.0 points per game.
Pick: Panthers +4 |Bet to +3
The Bears are the offseason darlings, but the Titans got a lot better, too. They added Tony Pollard at running back and Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd at wide receiver, plus a sharp offensive-minded head coach in Brian Callahan. And most importantly, they addressed the offensive line with No. 7 overall pick J.C. Latham, who will start at left tackle, and free agent Lloyd Cushenberry III, who graded out as a top-10 center last season.
Defensively, the Titans also improved by adding one of the best corners in the game in L’Jarius Sneed. They also added quality players like linebacker Ernest Jones, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, and safety Quandre Diggs.
Quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall tend to struggle in their first start. Per our Director of Research Evan Abrams, quarterbacks picked No. 1 are 4-22-1 (15%) SU and 7-20 (27%) ATS since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
And per our Action Labs data, Week 1 dogs that won 4-6 games the year prior are 71-35-2 (67%) ATS since 2005, covering by 3.9 points per game.
Pick: Titans +3.5 | Bet to +3
The Dolphins went just 1-6 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record in 2023. Offensively, they lost one of the top interior linemen in the game in Robert Hunt. Defensively, their best pass rusher (Bradley Chubb) is on IR with a knee injury.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars added one of the best interior defensive linemen in the game in Arik Armstead (16th of 130 at PFF) and one of the top safeties in Darnell Savage (15th of 95).
Offensively, the Jags should be improved after adding first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis at wide receiver.
According to our Action Labs data, Week 1 road underdogs that did not make the prior postseason are 50-30-2 (60%) since 2012.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 | Bet to +3
The Buccaneers could take a step back on offense with former offensive coordinator/quarterback whisperer Dave Canales taking the head job in Carolina. Geno Smith suffered an 8.8-point drop in passer rating and the Seahawks scored 2.5 fewer points per game last season after losing Canales to Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield was already lucky last season, being charged with the fourth-most turnover-worthy throws (2) but tossing tied for the 13th-most interceptions (10).
The weakest part of the Bucs offense is the interior offensive line – they’re starting a rookie (Graham Barton) at center, and both guards (Ben Bredeson, Cody Mauch) graded out in the bottom five among 79 guards at PFF – which is bad news against Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.
Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle on the road in their first starts, but most rookie quarterbacks can’t run like Jayden Daniels, who piled up 2,024 yards and 22 TDs on the ground in two seasons at LSU. Daniels should be able to take advantage of a Bucs defense which according to Pro Football Reference was 21st in pressure rate (19.7%) despite blitzing at the third-highest rate (40.1%).
Per our Action Labs data, Todd Bowles is 7-14-2 (33%) ATS as a favorite of 3 or more. And Mayfield is 14-26-1 (35%) ATS as a favorite regardless of the number, failing to cover by 2.9 points per game.
Pick: Commanders +3.5 | Bet to +3
Over/Under Best Bet
The Steelers are shaky on the offensive line with guard Nate Herbig (shoulder) on IR and Isaac Semaulo (pec) ruled out. None of their projected offensive line starters earned a PFF grade above 61.1 last season. The Steelers also have issues at quarterback – what else is new? – with Russell Wilson nursing a calf injury.
A banged-up Wilson will face a Falcons defense that should be improved after adding edge rusher Matthew Judon (32 sacks over his last 36 games) and safety Justin Simmons.
The Steelers match up well with a Falcons offense that could get off to a slow start with Kirk Cousins now 36 years old, coming off a torn Achilles, and not taking any snaps in preseason with his new teammates. On the outside, Pittsburgh has a tall corner in 6’2” Joey Porter Jr. to put on 6’4” Drake London, and the speedy Donte Jackson to stick with Darnell Mooney. They have rangy players in the middle like safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and linebacker Patrick Queen that can hang with Kyle Pitts. And they have horses up front in T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward who can neutralize what is typically a stout Falcons offensive line.
Per our Action Labs data, Steelers road unders under Mike Tomlin are 55-25-1 (69%) since 2014, covering by 3.4 points per game.
Pick: Under 41.5 | Bet to 41
Moneyline Week 1 NFL Prediction
Usually, I stay away from favorites in divisional matchups in Week 1, but the Texans are a horrible matchup for the Colts. The biggest question mark about the Colts is their secondary, with unproven players at both outside cornerback spots (Juju Brents. Jaylen Johnson) and free safety (Nick Cross). That could end in disaster against C.J. Stroud and a wide receiver trio of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell.
The Colts also could have issues at kicker, with Matt Gay (questionable, sports hernia) failing to practice all week, which could be the difference in a close game.
Pick: Texans ML (-155)
