NFL Week 4 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 4 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, October, 1, 8a ET.

Under The Stars

Night Unders & Road Warriors

Night-game unders are 9-2 to start the season, and they are 49-24 since the start of last season. Long term, they are 148-97-3 (60.4%) since 2019, good for a +16% ROI.

Road teams are dominating straight-up (SU) — they are 26-22 through three weeks, tied for the second-most road wins through three games since 1980.

• 27 wins == 1983
• 26 wins == 2023
• 26 wins == 2006

South Beach High

Dolphins are Dogs

The Dolphins are the 12th team in the last 20 years to be 3-0 SU and against the spread (ATS) but be listed as an underdog in their fourth game. Those previous 11 teams went 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS as a dog.

Not only that. The Dolphins are averaging 43.3 PPG. They are the 27th team in the Wild Card era (since 1990) to average more than 35 PPG through three games. The only other team that was listed as an underdog in their next game: the 2017 Rams — +5 in Dallas; won 35-30.

Undefeated?

History in Arizona

The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season and are 14-point underdogs against the 49ers.

They will be the first team in the Wild Card era to be a double-digit dog in their fourth game after starting 3-0 ATS. The closest? The 1992 Bucs, who won outright on the road as 9.5-point 'dogs against the Lions to move to 4-0 ATS.

Change of Fortune

Lions Make History

How often are the Lions favored in Green Bay? Prior to 2023, it has happened just seven times since 1980.

But, the previous four times, the Packers were starting their backup quarterback. The Lions were last favored in Lambeau Field against the Packers' starting QB in 1986.

Bounce Back?

Giants in Primetime, Again

… And we're back. Once again, Daniel Jones finds himself in primetime.

Jones is 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS at night in his career, including 0-5 SU at home at night.

Over the last 20 years, 96 QBs have made 5+ primetime starts — Jones’ 1-12 SU (7.7%) mark is the lowest win percentage among them.

Time To Travel

Favorites Excel Overseas

In Week 4, we have our first International Series game with the Jaguars and Falcons in London.

Favorites have excelled in international games — they are 29-9-1 SU and 25-14 ATS.

Lions at Packers | Thursday, Sep 28

8:20pm ET | Amazon

DET -2.5 | 45

Lions

• Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 16-9 ATS in his career against NFC North opponents. Lions coach Dan Campbell is 11-5 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career. Over the last five years, LaFleur and Campbell are 1-2 in most profitable coaches ATS vs. divisional opponents, respectively. Campbell is 10-2 ATS vs. the NFC North since 2021, covering 10 consecutive games in the spot.
• NFL first-half unders are 80-54-2 (60%) in night games since 2021, including 23-12-1 (66%) on TNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are 21-33 ATS since 2020, including 19-29 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day for home teams at night).
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 23-25 SU.
• Lions went 6-0 ATS vs. the NFC North last season. This is their first NFC North game of the 2023 season.
• How often are the Lions favored in Green Bay? 1986 was the last time the Lions were favored over the Packers in Lambeau against their starting QB.

Jared Goff

• Goff is 16-7 ATS in September (his best month) and 11-14 ATS in October (his worst month).
• Goff is the most-profitable QB ATS over the last five years (41-24-1 ATS; +$1,420). Who is the only QB over the last three years to be top-five ATS full game, 1H and 2H? Jared Goff.
• Lions are facing the Packers outdoors in Green Bay. Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor:

Indoor: 27-14 ATS (17-6 ATS over last two seasons)
Outdoor: 32-33-2 ATS

• Goff broke his interception-less streak in Week 2 against the Seahawks and threw one again in Week 3 vs. Falcons. In 2023, he is +1.95 units when betting "yes" on his INT prop. If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Goff is 18-8 ATS at home since 2020, the most-profitable QB in the NFL.
  Goff on the road since 2020: 13-11 ATS
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered five straight games against above .500 SU opponents, going 10-3 ATS in this spot since 2021.

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Packers

• Packers are 3-0 ATS to open the season for the first time since 2020; they were an underdog in all three of those games while covering for the first time since 2007.
• Packers haven’t been underdogs in their first four games since 1980.
• Packers used to be dominant at home at night in Lambeau. Between 2009-21, they were 27-6 SU. Since 2022, they are 3-3 SU at night at Lambeau. With a win in Lambeau in Week 4, the Lions would be 4-3 SU in Green Bay since 2017.
• Since 2017, Packers are just 2-10 ATS vs. Lions. Detroit is LaFleur’s least-profitable opponent ATS as coach of the Packers (2-6).

Jordan Love

• Love is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in four NFL starts, covering the spread by six PPG.
• Thirteen QBs have made their first four career starts with the Packers — none have started 4-0 ATS.

Matt LaFleur

• LaFleur is 45-29 ATS in his career as Packers coach. Since his first season with GB in 2019, he’s the most-profitable coach ATS in the NFL – second-best? Dan Campbell at 25-12 ATS.
• LaFleur is 17-9 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that’s fourth-best of any head coach.
  He’s only 3-3 ATS at night on short rest. LaFleur is 5-5 ATS in general on short rest in his career.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 4 would be their first game as a favorite this year if they close as such. Between 2019-21, the Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-5 ATS as a 'dog — 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-0 with Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 29-24 ATS.

Entering Week 1 …
= Packers were +6600 to win the Super Bowl, their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006 in the preseason. Their win total of 7.5 was their lowest since 2007 (when they won 13 games).
= Packers were plus-money (+165) to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.

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Falcons vs. Jaguars | Sunday, Oct. 1

9:30am ET | ESPN+

JAC -3 | 43

Falcons

A few facts and trends from the 39 total international games:

• Overs are almost even at 20-19. Where the value has been is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the over is 5-1.
• Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 29-9-1 SU and 25-14 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 17-6-1 SU and 14-10 ATS.
• The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%+ of tickets in international games are just 18-20 ATS.
• Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 23-6-1 SU and 19-11 ATS.
• Teams scoring 20 PPG or fewer, facing a team scoring more than 20 PPG, are just 5-14 ATS when the game is played overseas.

ATL

• Falcons play zero games this season with positive rest differential vs. their opponent. They played on the road last week before the game in London.

Desmond Ridder

• Falcons have struggled in the first half with Desmond Ridder, going 0-7 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover 1H spread by 5.6 PPG.
  1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3
• Ridder has still never lost a home game as a starter in college or the NFL.
  NFL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
  CFB: 26-0 SU, 17-9 ATS
  Total: 30-0 SU, 19-11 ATS
• The road has been a different story so far in the NFL.
  NFL: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
  CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  Total: 15-7 SU, 10-12 ATS

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career

W-L: 4-0, 0-3
ATS: 2-2, 1-2
PPG: 24.8, 11
TD-INT: 4-1, 0-0
Y/A: 7, 5.3

Arthur Smith

• Smith is 9-9 SU and 6-12 ATS at home as a head coach (7-12 SU, 10-8-1 ATS road/neutral). He's the worst Falcons HC ATS at home in the last 20 years. Since being hired in 2021, he is the least-profitable coach ATS at home.
• Smith ATS by month:

Sept-Oct: 10-8
Nov.-onward: 6-12-1

Smith is 6-4 ATS in the first four games of the season – his teams are 10-15-1 ATS from the fifth game forward.

• Falcons are 4-11 SU and 4-10-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith. His 4-10-1 ATS mark is the second worst of any head coach over the last three seasons.

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Jaguars

• This is the Jaguars' 10th game in the International Series (4-5 SU/ATS).
• The under has hit in the last four Jaguars games in London.
• Jacksonville will play back-to-back London games for the first time in history (Falcons this week; Bills next week).

Trevor Lawrence

• Lawrence overseas vs. playing in the states:

1-1 SU/ATS overseas
13-24 SU, 15-22 ATS in states

• Lawrence is 16-23 ATS in his career – 11-11 ATS w/ Doug Pederson, 5-12 ATS w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer
• Lawrence is 16-23 against 1H spread in career – since drafted in 2021, third worst of 88 QBs ahead of just Tom Brady and Justin Fields.
• Lawrence is 23-16 to the under in the last three seasons, the most-profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 88 QBs).
• Lawrence is just 3-6 SU as a favorite in his NFL career. Since 2021, these QBs are at least three games below .500 SU as a favorite: Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton
• Lawrence is 14-7-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the second-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Joe Burrow.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 39 career games.
• Jaguars are 7-16 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 6-7 SU off of a win. Lawrence is 8-15 ATS in his career off a loss.
• For the Jaguars under Lawrence, it's been tough after divisional games (3-8 ATS in his career). He’s never covered consecutive games in this spot.

Doug Pederson

• Pederson ATS in his career: 54-54 ATS

Sept-Nov: 30-39 ATS
Dec. on: 24-15 ATS

• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.

Underdog: 30-23 ATS
Favorite: 24-31 ATS

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Dolphins at Bills | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | CBS

BUF -3 | 53.5

Dolphins

• At 54.5, this would be the biggest over/under of the season so far.
• Dolphins are the 12th team in the last 20 years to be 3-0 SU/ATS and be listed as an underdog in their fourth game. Those previous 11 teams went 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS as a 'dog. They were actually the last team in this spot (2022).
• Dolphins are averaging 43.3 PPG through three games. They are the 27th team in the Wild Card era (since 1990) to average more than 35 PPG through three games. Only one other team was listed as an underdog in their next game: the 2017 Rams — +5 in Dallas; won 35-30.
• Through three weeks, Tua Tagovailoa is the favorite to win MVP, Mike McDaniel is the favorite to win Coach of the Year and Tyreek Hill is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year.
• The Dolphins are still the favorites to win the AFC East at -140. Miami hasn’t been a preseason favorite to win the division since 2003. It hasn't been favored to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008. This 14-season drought is the fifth-longest streak in the NFL.
• The Dolphins entered 2023 with a five-game SU road losing streak. They beat the Chargers on the road in Week 1 and the Patriots on the road in Week 2. Now they face the Bills on the road in Week 4.
• Dolphins are 2-0 SU on the road. 2020 is the only year since 2011 Miami has been over .500 SU on the road.
• The Dolphins are the first team to score 14+ points in every quarter of a game since the Lions in the 1957 NFL Championship Game vs. Cleveland.
• 6-point teasers for road dogs are 9-1 in the last 20 years (5-0 since 2018) in division games with a total above 52 in the first quarter of the season.
• Teams after scoring 60+ pts in their previous game are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS since 1970. In the Super Bowl era, since 1966, they are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with two teams scoring 60+ pts in the last game of the season.

Tua Tagovailoa

• Tagovailoa was 18-1 to win MVP entering Week 1, 7-1 entering Week 2 and then became the favorite at +550 entering Week 3 — he is still the favorite at +325.
• Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 13-5 ATS at home and 9-9-1 ATS away.
• Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015.
• Miami is 34-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span.
• Tagovailoa by time zone: 19-7-1 ATS in ET | 3-6 ATS in all other time zones.
• Follow the line with Tagovailoa? The Dolphins opened +3.5 at the Bills and are now down to +2.5. When the line moves toward Tagovailoa (for example, -3 to -5), he’s won 11 of his last 12 starts SU.
• Tagovailoa is 5-0 ATS vs. the Patriots. He’s 3-3-1 ATS vs. the Bills and Jets.
• Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS vs. the AFC East in his career. Over the last 20 years, Tagovailoa is the third-most profitable QB vs. AFC East opponents behind Geno Smith (No. 2) and Tom Brady (No. 1). With a cover on Sunday, he would pass Smith.

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Bills

• Josh Allen has 58 wins in his career — 44 have been by at least seven points.
• Allen has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since Weeks 15-16 in 2020.
• Allen has succeeded on normal rest in his career: 30-16-3 ATS on seven days' rest; 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. With Allen, the Bills are 52-32-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
• Allen and the Bills are in a spot this week familiar to the Dolphins. As a home favorite, Allen and the Bills are 28-7 SU. Since 2018, he’s sixth in the NFL in moneyline profitability. Tagovailoa is 9-1 SU in the same spot; fifth in ML profitability.
• Bills are playing the Jaguars in London next week. Teams the week before playing a neutral-site game are 88-50 SU (64%) and 78-57-3 ATS (58%) since 1990.
• In toss-up games, where the spread is +3 or less, Allen is 16-10 SU and 16-9-1 ATS.
• Bills have won seven straight home games vs. the Dolphins. Their last loss was in 2016. They are 11-1 SU in the last 10 home games vs. Dolphins.

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Vikings at Panthers | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | FOX

MIN -4.5 | 46.5

Vikings

• When two winless teams play, the underdog is 71-37-4 (66%) ATS over the last 20 years.
• Only six NFL teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start (of 251 teams) — 2018 Texans, 1998 Bills, 1995 Lions, 1992 Chargers, 1982 Buccaneers, 1981 Jets.

MIN

• The Vikings are 0-3 despite Kirk Cousins leading the league in passing yards (1,075) and Justin Jefferson leading the league in receiving yards (458).
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Since their playoff game against the Giants, they've lost four straight one-score games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (postseason included):

2022 Vikings — -10 2023: 8.5 win total (0-3 SU, ATS)
1979 Oilers — +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders — +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs — +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

Kirk Cousins

• Cousins is 69-73-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 w/ WAS, 39-45-2 w/ MIN
  Since 2020 – home: 10-18 ATS | road: 12-11-1 ATS
  Cousins’ 10-18 ATS home mark since 2020 is the worst in the NFL.
• Cousins, Vikings are 1-8 ATS over the last eight games. They covered Week 18 vs. the Bears.
• Over the last 20 years, the over is 83-60-1 (58%) in Cousins starts, making him the most-profitable QB to the over in that span. He’s 34-18-1 to the over since 2020.
• In his NFL career, Cousins is 37-25 ATS after a SU loss, the sixth-most profitable QB in that spot over the last 20 years.
• How Cousins performs based on time of day:

1 p.m. ET or earlier: 48-39-2 ATS
4 p.m. ET or later: 21-34 ATS

• Cousins has historically struggled with bad teams. He is 10-20-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of 33% or less, including 2-9 ATS vs. SU winless teams. That 10-20-1 ATS mark is the second worst (behind Derek Carr) of 233 QBs over the last 20 years.

Most receiving yards over the first three weeks in NFL history:

T1. 2023 Justin Jefferson (458)
T1. 2011 Wes Welker (458)
3. 1989 Jerry Rice (449)

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Panthers

• Adam Thielen revenge game. He signed with the Panthers over the offseason after being a member of the Vikings for nine seasons.
• Panthers are 0-3 SU for the first time since 2010.
• Frank Reich is 1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS as a home underdog as coach of the Panthers and Colts.
• What a first-half ATS rollercoaster Reich's teams have gone through.

2023 Panthers: 2-1 1H ATS
2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich second best in NFL)

• Panthers went over their win total of 6.5 last year with seven wins. They haven’t eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
• Since 2022, there have been 31 instances of a team using a top-10 draft selection on a quarterback who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie. Those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the last 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%). Bryce Young has started just two games so far this year.

Under 6’0”, Starting QB Rookie Year:

2023 Bryce Young 0-2 SU
2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990):

1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (0-3 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

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Broncos at Bears | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | CBS

DEN -3.5 | 46.5

Broncos

• Broncos have allowed 122 points through three games (seventh-most all time).
• Teams after allowing 50+ points in their previous game are just 22-35 1H ATS since 2005.
• The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos' win total since 2016; Denver has started the season 0-3 SU with a win total of 8.5 in the preseason.
• When two winless teams play, the underdog is 71-37-4 (66%) ATS over the last 20 years.
• This Bears-Broncos game will be the first game in NFL history between two teams who combined to allow 110+ points and 1,100+ yards the previous week.

Russell Wilson

• Sunday in Chicago will be just the fifth career game Russell Wilson will play with his team on a losing streak of at least three games. His team is 2-2 SU, but 4-0 ATS, with all four being one-score games. Wilson was an underdog in all four of those games.
• This is Wilson’s first 0-3 SU start to a season.
• On a two-game or more SU losing streak, Wilson is 14-6 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, only Drew Brees is better ATS. His head coach? Sean Payton.
• Wilson is 10-22 SU over the last three seasons; he was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons.
• Wilson has lost six consecutive starts on the road SU (1-9 SU on road last 10 starts).
• Wilson is 1-10 SU in his last 11 starts and 2-13 SU in his last 15 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos:

DEN: 4-14 SU, 6-12 ATS — SU mark is worst in NFL, ATS is third worst
SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS

Sean Payton

• This contest against the Bears will be the 12th career game Payton will coach while his team is on a 3+ game losing skid. His team is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS. Last happened in 2021 with Saints, only other time since 2016. Payton is 17-12 SU, 19-10 ATS on a 2+ plus game losing skid in his career.
• Payton ATS by QB: Brees: 122-104-3 ATS | All others: 18-14 ATS
• Most-profitable coaches ATS over the last 20 years: 1. Bill Belichick, 2. Mike McCarthy 3. Payton
• Payton has gone seven straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21).
• In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total.
• Can’t always fix it. This will be the eighth game for Payton since 2015 where his team allowed 30+ points in consecutive games. In the next game, his defense has allowed an average of 28.4 PPG.

Broncos First Three Games – Last Two Seasons

Payton | Hackett
SU 0-3 | 2-1
ATS 0-3 | 1-2
Yards 659 | 783
Pts 69-122 | 43-46
Off EPA/play 15th | 13th
Off SR 18th | 29th
Def EPA/play 32nd | 6th
Def SR 31st | 6th

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Bears

• Teams are 23-12 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.
• When opponents score more than 20 points against a Bears team led by Justin Fields, they are 19-0 SU. All five Fields wins have come when opponents scored 20 or fewer.
• The Bears will become the second team in the Wild Card era (since 1990) to be home underdogs against a team that lost their previous game by more than 40 points. The other? The Jets back in 2007. Washington lost 52-7 to the Patriots and then won 23-20 as 3.5-point road favorites in New York.
• Bears have lost six consecutive games against the spread dating back to last season (longest active skid in the NFL). Chicago is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. The Bears haven’t lost six straight ATS since 2009, when they lost seven straight.
• Fields has started 28 games. He’s 5-23 SU, he’s been sacked 104 times, he's averaging 154 pass yards per game with 27 passing TDs and 25 INTs.
• The Bears haven’t scored more than 20 points in nine straight games. Their last win was on Oct. 24, 2022.
• Longest streak of scoring 20 or less over the last decade: '21 DET (10), '22-23 CHI (9), two others tied with 9.
• The Bears have lost 13 consecutive games and have allowed 25+ points in all of them. That is the longest streak of its kind.
• Lost 13 consecutive games SU dating back to last season. They are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games.
• Longest active losing streak in the NFL. 20 straight losses is the modern record by 2020-21 Jaguars.
• Longest Bears losing streak in franchise history.
• Chicago's streak of 13 straight losses is tied for the second-longest among DET, CHI, MIN, GB – DET 13 straight losses in 2000-01 and 19 straight from 2007-09.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups, going 5-19-1 ATS vs. the NFC North since 2019 (least profitable team against divisional opponents in that span). A $100 bettor would have lost $1,414.
• CHI is 17-28 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019.
• CHI is 22-47-1 ATS since 2019, worst of any team.

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Ravens at Browns | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | CBS

CLE -2.5 | 38.5

Ravens

• Ravens are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog, including 19-5 as a 'dog since 2018 – that's second-best in that span behind the Steelers.

Lamar Jackson

• Jackson is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in his career vs. Browns.
• Jackson is 9-10 ATS vs. the AFC North — 6-2 on road, 3-8 at home.
• Over the last three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 6-15 ATS as a favorite, including 4-15 when favored by three points or more.
• Jackson as a 'dog: 8-5 SU, 11-2 ATS
• ATS: Jackson's 84.6% ATS mark as an underdog is the highest in the last 20 years for a QB with at least 10 starts as a 'dog (Patrick Mahomes 8-1-1 ATS).
• SU: Jackson is three games above .500 SU as a 'dog.
• QBs four games above .500 SU as a 'dog over the last 20 years: Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mahomes. Jackson joins with a win in Week 4.
• Jackson is 17-6 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or as an underdog. In all other spots, he is 18-27 ATS. He’s 2-12 ATS as a favorite of more than three points since 2021 (worst in NFL).
• Jackson is 2-9 against the first half spread in his last 11 games.
  Jackson 1H ATS: Road: 22-10-1 | Home: 17-17-1

Has Jackson lost the 1H charm?
2021-23: 11-15-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS

John Harbaugh

• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and five games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 147-108-9 1H ATS — a $100 bettor would be up $3,187, most of any coach in the NFL since 2005.
• Harbaugh as an underdog: 54-34-3 ATS – second best of any coach over the last 20 years behind Mike Tomlin.

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Browns

• Browns have won their season opener the last two years. They are 2-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005 and 3-22-1 SU in openers since 1995. In Weeks 2-4, Browns are 10-3 SU since 2019.
• Browns are now 1-10-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 2005 and 2-15-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 1999. After Week 1, Browns are 26-14 SU at home since 2018.
• Browns defense has been unreal through three weeks. Some notes:
  *They are allowing an NFL-low 3.2 yards/play – best by a defense through three games since 2000.
  *Opponents have had two red-zone attempts — 0 TD, 1 FG.
  *Opponents are converting third downs at 19.5% clip (lowest in league).
  *12.8% of drives ending with an offensive score (lowest in league).
  *Opponent average drive time: 1:48 (lowest by 21 seconds).
• The Browns had odds of +3500 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), expectations have not led to results.
• Browns RBs in first game without Nick Chubb. From all drives except the final garbage-time drive (via Adam Levitan).
  *Jerome Ford 40, Kareem Hunt 14, Pierre Strong 3
  *Routes: Ford 21, Hunt 5, Strong 1
  *Opportunities: Ford 13, Hunt 8, Strong 1

Browns' Highest Win Total Since Moving to Cleveland in 1999 (actual wins in parentheses):
2021: 10.5 (8)
2023: 9 (2-1 SU)
2019: 2019 (6)

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Steelers at Texans | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | CBS

PIT -3 | 41.5

Steelers

• Over the last two seasons, the Steelers are 10-2 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt; w/o Watt, they are 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS.
• Steelers are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are 9-17 ATS since 2020, which is the third-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span.

Mike Tomlin

• Tomlin road unders are 78-59-1 (56.9%), best of any coach in the last 20 years. 53-25-1 (68%) since 2014.
• Steelers under Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 32-20-3 ATS, covering by 2.2 PPG.
• Tomlin road favorites haven’t had the most success: 18-18-1 ATS last decade. As a road underdog, he is 25-13-1 ATS.
• Tomlin hasn’t had success on a road trip recently. Week 4 in Houston is their second straight road game. Since 2018, Steelers are 3-7 ATS on the second or later leg of a road trip. Only coaches worse? Bill O’Brien, Kevin Stefanski, Doug Marrone.

Kenny Pickett

• Pickett is 10-5 ATS in his career. He’s covered five of his last six games.
• He’s third-most profitable QB ATS since start of last season (Jared Goff, Brock Purdy).
• Pickett is 4-1 SU/ATS as a favorite. Only loss to Baltimore.

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Texans

• C.J. Stroud hasn’t thrown an interception yet. He is tied with Justin Herbert for most pass attempts without an INT (121).
• Stroud has the most pass attempts without an interception to start a season for a rookie all time.
• Stroud is attempting to break history with Ohio State first-round picks (Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Art Schlichter, Stroud). The four QBs combined are 9-41 SU. All OSU QBs are a combined 43-93 SU.

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Rams at Colts | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | FOX

IND -1 | 45.5

Rams

• Rams are 1-8 SU in their last nine road games dating back to last season. Beat the Seahawks in Week 1.
• Puka Nacua has been targeted 42 times, the most by a rookie through his first three games since targets started being tracked in 1992. Second most was Terry Glenn with 38 in 1996.

Sean McVay

• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season.
  Sept/Oct: 34-14 SU
  Nov. on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 24-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West and 33-34-2 ATS vs. all other visions
  ARI: 10-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-4 ATS (20-6-1 ATS combined) | SF: 4-10 ATS
• McVay/Stafford on short rest: 3-1 SU/ATS
• McVay is 11-6 SU/ATS on short rest, winning and covering seven of the last eight games. Since 2019, McVay is 10-3 ATS on short rest, the most-profitable coach in the NFL.
• McVay is 13-5 SU, 11-5-2 ATS coaching in the Eastern Time Zone.
• This will be the second consecutive EST game for McVay. He last did so in 2020 and lost by three in Buffalo on the second leg.

Matthew Stafford

• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
• Rams, Stafford are 2-0-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 30-63 SU and 35-56-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU
• Least-profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
• He is 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS with Rams in this spot.
• Stafford is 14-17-2 ATS with Rams – secnd-least profitable QB for franchise over the last 20 years (Marc Bulger).

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Colts

• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team (100-1) entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND). Their third time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
• Their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
• Colts are 2-1 SU this year.
• Teams are 17-9 SU the week after playing the Ravens in Baltimore since 2020.
• Great moneyline spot for Colts. Teams coming off two or more road games, where the team has won two or three in a row SU are 135-70 SU (66%) in their next game, regardless of location. When the game is at home, they are 125-57 SU (69%).

Gardner Minshew

• Minshew got the upset win on the road in Week 3. He is 2-10 SU in his last 12 starts. He broke a streak of eight consecutive losses SU as a 'dog last week. He’s 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts (4-9 ATS since 2020).
• Minshew has made five starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 — his teams are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS.
• Colts QBs have struggled in the backup role. They are 5-14 SU (9-8 ATS) since 2017.
• Can Minshew do it again? He’s made three career starts directly the week after a SU win and his teams are 2-1 SU in those games.

Anthony Richardson

• In 55 dropbacks, Richardson hasn’t attempted a pass 20+ yards downfield.
• With Richardson in the lineup, the Colts have eight pass attempts in play-action — zero with Minshew.
• In terms of RPOs, both quarterbacks in this matchup each have 7 plays.
• Minshew has a lower bad-throw rate than Richardson this season (AR: 19.6% bad throw %, GM: 15.2% bad throw %)
• Fewest college starts by R1 QB last 20 years: 2023 Richardson, 13 (started Week 1, lost first start SU/ATS, won 2nd start SU/ATS); 2017 Mitch Trubisky, 13 (started Week 5, lost first start SU, won 2nd start SU, covered 1st 3 starts of career); 2019 Dwayne Haskins, 14 (started Week 9, started career 0-2 SU/ATS).

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Buccaneers at Saints | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | FOX

NO -3.5 | 40

Buccaneers

• Teams after playing the Eagles have struggled in recent years. They are 19-33-1 SU, 19-34 ATS since 2020, the 2nd-lowest profitable previous opponent in the NFL (Raiders are the worst).
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog: 13-37 SU, 19-28-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite). His 19-28-3 ATS mark is 143rd of 147 coaches last 20 years and worst of all active head coaches.
• Baker Mayfield is 31-42-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,241 (116th of 119 QBs since he’s been in the league).
• The Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (6 games) and then covered and won on the road in Minnesota in Week 1. Tampa is 6-12 ATS on the road since the start of 2021, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears.
• Short rest hasn’t been too bad for Mayfield, who is 5-3 SU/ATS in his career on short rest.
• Mike Evans has faced Marshon Lattimore 11 times in his career. He has just 3 TDs and 5 or fewer catches in 10 of those games.
• It’s always been a struggle for Tampa vs. New Orleans. The Bucs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings vs. the Saints — their least profitable opponent ATS since 2019.

The Year After Tom Brady:
+ In 2023, the Bucs' projected win total is 6.5; they are 2-1 SU currently.
+ In 2020, the Patriots went 7-9 — two victories under their 9-win total.

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Saints

• Jameis Winston is expected to get the start for the injured Derek Carr.
• The Saints have held opponents under 21 pts in 11 consecutive games, which is tied with the Patriots for the longest such streak in the last decade.
• We have to see where the line closes, but Winston has been a tough bet as an underdog: 15-13 SU (8-19-1 ATS) as the favorite, 19-33 SU (26-23-3 ATS) as a 'dog.
• Winston’s 8-19-1 ATS mark as a favorite makes him the 8th-least profitable of 213 QBs over the last 20 years.
• Tough Favorites. It’s not just Jameis. Derek Carr is 17-31-2 ATS as a favorite, he’s the 3rd-worst QB ATS in that span.
• Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime for the 5th time in his career and is still struggling to cover the spread. He was 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 0-2-1 ATS so far in 2023.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 0-2-1 ATS

Dennis Allen

• Allen is 17-39 (30.4%) SU, 21-33-2 (38.9%) ATS.
• As a favorite: 9-6 SU, 4-10-1 ATS
• 'Dog of more than FG: 5-23 SU
• After a SU win: 4-13 SU
• Allen is 5-12-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career — 4-7-1 with Raiders; 1-5-1 with Saints. His 5-12-2 ATS mark is 138th of 144 coaches over the last 20 years and second-worst among active coaches, ahead of just Kevin Stefanski.
• Superdome isn’t scary anymore. New Orleans is 7-9 SU at home over the last three seasons – only four teams have fewer SU wins.

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Commanders at Eagles | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | FOX

PHI -8.5 | 43.5

Commanders

• Sam Howell has been sacked 19 times this season, which is the most of any QB.
• Howell got sacked nine times in Washington’s previous game. Teams of quarterbacks who were sacked 7+ times in their previous game are 86-113-5 ATS (43.2%) in their next game over the last 20 years. Commanders and Falcons match that this week.
• The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002 (their first year as a franchise). Howell is on pace to take 107 this year.
• Howell put up some historic numbers on Sunday: His four-interception, nine-sack performance was the first in 28 years.
• Watch out for early year interceptions. In September and October, teams are 27-38-4 ATS the week after throwing four or more interceptions over the last 20 years. Three or more picks? 127-164-10 ATS (43.6%).
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 57-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-50-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• Teams who score three points or fewer the previous week are 73-48-4 ATS (60%) the next week over the last 20 years. Week 4 matches: WAS, TEN

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Eagles

• Eagles are the fourth team since 2000 to start 3-0 SU after losing the Super Bowl. The previous three ended up with at least nine wins, but none made it past the Divisional Round:

2019 Rams, 9-7 (missed playoffs)
2017 Falcons, 10-6 (Divisional Round)
2006 Seahawks, 9-7 (Divisional Round)

• Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS to start the season for the first time since 2016 and just third time in the last 20 years. Other year was back in 2004.

Jalen Hurts

• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.

Home: 14-5-1 ATS (2nd of 90 QBs since 2020)
Road/Neutral: 8-13 ATS (87th of 90 QBs since 2020)

• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 24-5 SU as a favorite, including 24-3 SU when the Eagles are favored by three points or more (22-1 SU in last 23 starts).
• Hurts' career on short rest: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS. Hurts has won 5 consecutive starts SU on short rest.
• Hurts has won 20 of his last 21 regular-season starts. He's the sixth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have a stretch like this (joining Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Montana and Jim McMahon).

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Bengals at Titans | Sunday, Oct. 1

1:00pm ET | FOX

CIN -2.5 | 41

Bengals

• Bengals are seventh team since 2002 to open season with two straight divisional losses. The previous six teams missed the playoffs: 2020 DET & MIA, 2019 WAS, 2017 CLE, 2013 MIN, 2003 SD.
• Bengals started 0-2 SU this year. Since 1990, 31 of 270 teams (11.5%) that started 0-2 made the playoffs. Last year's Bengals are one of those teams.
• The 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants actually went on to win the Super Bowl after starting 0-2.
• An 0-2 team has made the playoffs in seven of the last 10 seasons.
• Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason — their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL – DET). They are 1-2 SU to open the season.

Joe Burrow

• Bengals enter Week 4 0-2-1 ATS so far this season.
• Since he was drafted in 2020, Burrow is the most-profitable QB ATS.
• Burrow has not covered the spread in four straight games entering Week 4, the longest such skid of his career (1-5-1 ATS over last seven starts).
• Burrow is 1-of-9 passing on attempts 20+ yards down field this season. He has the most attempts of all QBs to have at least one 20+ yard pass attempt.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. AFC North and 23-10-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
• Burrow is 16-3 SU and 16-2-1 ATS in his last 19 games vs. non-divisional opponents.
• In Burrow’s career, he is 35-16-1 (68.6%) against the second-half spread. It's the best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted (2020).
• Burrow is 20-8 SU as a favorite in his career. He is 13-3 SU as a favorite in his last 16 starts.

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Titans

• Vrabel is 49-36 SU, 44-39-2 ATS as Titans coach
• As an underdog, he’s 23-23 SU, 27-18-1 ATS, including 23-10-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher in the regular season.
• Vrabel is 35-24 SU in September, October and November in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).
• Vrabel off a loss: 18-15 SU, 17-14-2 ATS (9-6 SU, 9-5-1 ATS in first eight games).

Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill is 74-73-4 ATS in his career – 33-28-2 ATS w/ TEN, 41-45-2 ATS w/ MIA.
• Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season: 55-44-2 ATS Sept.-Nov. | 19-29-2 ATS in Dec. or later
• Tannehill is 30-20 against 1H spread over the last four years (best in the NFL).
• In that same span, he’s 21-28-1 against the 2H spread.
• Tannehill is 3-11-1 against 2H spread since the beginning of last season (worst in the NFL).

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Raiders at Chargers | Sunday, Oct. 1

4:05pm ET | CBS

LAC -6 | 48

Raiders

• Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS with Denver. Since that run, McDaniels-coached teams are 12-30 SU and 16-26 ATS.
• If Brian Hoyer gets the start for the Raiders, things aren’t looking so great. He is 16-25 SU as a starter and has lost 12 consecutive starts SU.
• In the last decade, the Raiders have only had to start a backup QB nine times, with the last occurrence back in 2017. Raiders are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in those nine games.
• Reigning rushing champ has struggled this season. Josh Jacobs has 108 rushing yards on 45 attempts (2.4 Y/A). He’s never finished a season with below 3.9 Y/A. In Week 2, he rushed for -2 yards on nine carries, becoming the first defending rushing champ to finish with negative rush yards in the merger.
• Against the Chargers, he averages 4.5 yards per carry with five rushing TD in seven games.
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas:

At home: 11-15 SU, 13-13 ATS
Road/neutral: 14-14 SU, 12-16 ATS

• LV is most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$807).
• McDaniels' teams fade late: 11-13 SU from Sept.-Oct.; 7-17 SU in Nov. and later

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Chargers

• How valuable has Mike Williams been to Chargers offense? He has the most receptions on jump balls (31) and most receiving yards in “tight” windows (1,194) over the last five years, according to Next Gen Stats.
• Over the last three seasons, Williams has missed six games. The Chargers are 2-4 SU/ATS, averaging 23.3 PPG.
• In two of those six games, Keenan Allen also been sidelined. The Chargers went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.
• Allen last four games without Williams: 21 receptions, 233 receiving yards, two TDs.
• How does Herbert perform without Williams? 8 pass TD, 4 INT in six games (all on road). Over 26.5 completions in 4-of-6 games.
• Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league this year. His 121 pass attempts without an INT are tied with C.J. Stroud for most in the NFL. He’s fifth in EPA/play and success rate, first in completion percentage and his 87.2% on-target throw is the highest mark in the NFL.
• The five QBs (with 100+ pass attempts) below Herbert in on-target throw percentage are Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa, who are a combined 9-3 SU this year.
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.

When his defense allows 27 points or more: LAC is 6-23 SU, 9-20 ATS.
When his defense allows fewer than 27 points: LAC is 20-4 SU, 19-4-1 ATS.

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Patriots at Cowboys | Sunday, Oct. 1

4:25pm ET | FOX

DAL -6.5 | 43.5

Patriots

• Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Two of those three ATS wins have come vs. the Jets.

Mac Jones

• 0-12 SU when opponents score more than 24 points. Jones is 17-6 SU when his defense allows 24 points or fewer.
• When Jones scores 21 points or less, NE is 4-12 SU.
• Jones is 12-7 SU vs. teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 5-11 SU vs. teams that did.
• Jones is 15-19-1 ATS in his career – least-profitable QB last 20 yrs under Bill Belichick.
• Jones is 5-0 ATS vs. the Jets and Zach Wilson; 10-19-1 ATS vs. all other QBs.
• Jones is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-12 ATS as an underdog. Jones has lost 11 consecutive starts SU and ATS as an underdog.
• Over the last 20 years, Jones is 265th of 269 QBs as an underdog ATS. Only active QB worse? Justin Fields.

Patriots Largest Underdog with Jones:
+8.5, 2022 at BUF (L, 35-23)
+7, 2023 at DAL
+6.5, 2021 vs. TB (L, 19-17)
+4.5, 2021 at BUF (L 47-17)

Bill Belichick

• Since Tom Brady left, Belichick is 26-28 SU, 25-28-1 ATS. Belichick without Brady: 44-46 SU w/ NE, 36-44 SU w/ CLE.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 3-14 SU as an underdog. Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.

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Cowboys

• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson leads the NFL in red-zone targets (eight).
• Dak Prescott is 4-7-1 ATS in MST or PT time zones, but he’s 53-40-1 ATS in ET and CT.
• Prescott has only lost one other game as a double-digit favorite, like he did last week vs. Cardinals. Dallas won 43-3 over the Falcons in 2021 after losing its other game as a double-digit favorite.
• In the last 20 years, only eight teams have lost as a double-digit favorite within the first four games of the regular season. Those teams went 7-1 ATS in their next game.
• This line initially opened at Dallas -4.5 and has ballooned to -7 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Prescott. His teams are 16-9 ATS when the line moves against him (e.g., -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Prescott between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 26-19-1 ATS.
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 26-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 17-25 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 26-13-2 ATS mark is second best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
• Cowboys went 5-0 ATS after a loss last season and are 9-1 ATS off a loss over the previous two seasons.
  In that span, they are the most profitable team off a SU loss.

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Cardinals at 49ers | Sunday, Oct. 1

4:25pm ET | FOX

SF -14 | 43.5

Cardinals

• Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season and are 14-point underdogs against the 49ers. They will be the first team in the Wild Card era to be a double-digit dog in their fourth game after starting 3-0 ATS. The closest? The Bucs back in 1992. They won outright on the road as 9.5-point 'dogs against the Lions, moving to 4-0 ATS.
• Will anyone bet on the Cardinals this week?

Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 18% tickets (ARI covered)

• Cardinals are double-digit dog vs. 49ers in division. In November or earlier, double-digit division 'dogs are 85-52-6 ATS (62%) in the last 20 years. In December and January, they are 64-68-3 ATS (49%).
• With Kyler Murray hurt, ARI will start a “backup QB” again in Week 4. Arizona is 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS with a backup QB in the Kyler era (since 2019).
• Points scored in ARI games since start of last year w/o Kyler: 13, 19, 16, 15, 10, 27, 16, 28, 28.
• Cardinals pulled off a massive upset last week, winning as 11.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys. Teams after pulling off a double-digit spread upset in their previous game have actually performed well earlier in the season.

First four games: 5-2-1 ATS.
First eight games: 15-11-4 ATS.

• Undefeated teams ATS are 36-48-2 ATS (42.9%) in their fourth game over the last 20 years. Week 4 match: GB, LAR, MIA, PHI, ARI
• Arizona won just four games last year and now starts this season 3-0 ATS. The Cards are just the 10th team in the last 20 years to start 3-0 ATS after winning four or fewer games the year prior. Those previous nine teams went 1-7-1 ATS in their next game.
• Team with lowest win total opens this year with three straight covers. In 17-game schedule era, five teams to have win total of 4.5 or less are 40-31 ATS.

Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021):
4 – 2021 Texans (3 wins, 8-9 ATS)
4.5 – 2023 Cardinals (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS)
4.5 – 2022 Falcons (7 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 – 2022 Texans (3 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 – 2021 Lions (4 wins, 11-6 ATS)

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49ers

• The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. In Week 2 this year, they won, but failed to cover against the Rams. San Francisco has won eight straight games SU vs. NFC West.
• 49ers have covered the spread in eight consecutive home games dating back to last season, the longest home cover streak in the NFL and the longest ATS home cover streak for the 49ers since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

Biggest Spreads for Kyle Shanahan with 49ers:

-14.5, 2022 vs ARI (W, 38-13)
-14, 2023 vs. ARI
-14, 2023 vs. NYG (W, 23-7)

• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West:

As Favorite: 8-10-1 ATS.
As Underdog: 13-7 ATS.

• Only one other team since 2013 has been a favorite of 14 points or more against a divisional opponent in the first four games of the season. Patriots did it twice in 2019 against Dolphins and Jets, winning both games by a combined score of 73-14.

Brock Purdy

• Purdy is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in his career; 10-0 SU in games he finished.
• Longest win streaks to start career – Starting QBs since 1966:

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 15
Mike Livingston, KC 10
Mike Tomczak, CHI 10
Brock Purdy, SF 8

• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS.
• McCaffrey has a TD in 12 consecutive games (13 total TDs), tying Jerry Rice for the team record. The NFL record is 15, held by John Riggins and O.J. Simpson.
• McCaffrey's odds to score a TD this season: -105, -160, -240.

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Chiefs at Jets | Sunday, Oct. 1

8:20pm ET | NBC

KC -8.5 | 41.5

Chiefs

• Teams are 12-7 ATS after playing the Bears since the start of last season and 95-77-4 ATS since 2012. Chicago is one of five teams with $1,000+ profit ATS as a previous opponent since 2012.
• The Chiefs' next five opponents and their current W-L record:

at Jets (1-2), at Vikings (0-3), vs. Broncos (0-3), vs. Chargers (1-2), at Broncos (0-3).

• Mahomes has had 10 passes dropped this season, the most of any QB. He had 33 last year, seventh most in the NFL.
• Mahomes as a double-digit favorite: 22-2 SU, 10-13-1 ATS.
• Mahomes starts by point spread:

Favorite: 87 (43-43-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
-10 or higher: 24 (10-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 73 (41-31-1 ATS)
-3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 71 (32-38-1 ATS)

• Mahomes is just 5-12 ATS in his last 16 games after a SU win dating back to 2022.
• Mahomes has played 35 total night games. The Chiefs are 25-10 SU, 19-15-1 ATS. Mahomes’ loss in Week 1 vs. Lions broke a 13-game SU win streak for K.C. at night. Mahomes has won nine straight SNF starts SU dating back to 2021.
• In road/neutral games at night, Mahomes is 12-5 SU and 11-5-1 ATS.
• Mahomes’ 11-5-1 ATS mark on road/neutral at night is second best over last 20 years behind Peyton Manning.
• Mahomes in his career is 19-0 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of over 5 pts. As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 23-5 SU.
• At 41.5, this would be the second-lowest over/under for Mahomes in his career and lowest since a game back in 2017 against Broncos and Paxton Lynch.

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Jets

• Zach Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row. In 2023, he currently has the worst passer rating.
• Wilson has made only one career NFL start at night – a 19-3 home loss to the Jaguars back in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.

20 PPG or higher: 3-11 SU
19.9 PPG or less: 5-4 SU

• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup. They are 3-26 SU, 10-19 ATS over the last decade.
• 35 QBs have had 300+ plays since start of last season, Wilson has the lowest EPA/play of any.
• Wilson has one completion of 20+ yards this season. Last year, he was 10-of-33 20+ yards downfield. 29 QBs had 30+ pass attempts 20+ yards downfield — Wilson was tied with Andy Dalton for fewest completions (10).
• There have been six Jets head coaches over the last 20 years, and none have been profitable ATS. Robert Saleh is 16-21 ATS.
• Historically, it has been good to bet big underdogs at home at night. Teams that are underdogs by over a TD at home at night are 33-19 ATS over the last 20 years, including 8-2 ATS since 2020.

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Seahawks at Giants | Monday, Oct. 2

8:15pm ET | ABC/ESPN

SEA -1.5 | 47.5

Seahawks

• Pete Carroll is 34-18-3 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that makes him the best of any head coach (+$1,447).
• Geno Smith has played nine games at night in his career. He is 2-7 SU, but 7-2 ATS. He’s been listed as an underdog in eight of those nine games.
• In Carroll’s 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total – never won fewer than seven games.
• Smith is 20-14-2 ATS as a 'dog, but only 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
• Smith has started 12 games in his career on extended rest and his teams are just 3-9 SU, losing nine of his last 10 starts.
• Recently, Caroll has also struggled with extended rest. Since 2020, the Seahawks are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in this spot, making Carroll the second-least profitable coach ATS ahead of just Bill Belichick.

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Giants

• Giants are 6-1-1 SU, 7-1 ATS off a straight-up loss under Brian Daboll. Daboll is the most profitable coach ATS after a SU loss since the start of last season.
• Daniel Jones career: 23-34-1 SU, 32-26 ATS.
  Home: 13-16 ATS (-$413)
  Road/Neutral: 19-10 ATS (+$770)
• Giants lost last week against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. Jones is 21-11 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-6 ATS over the last four seasons after winning, but failing to cover the spread in Week 2 at Cardinals – Jones is the most profitable QB ATS after a loss since 2020.
• Jones has 97 pass attempts this season, and he only has 226 passing yards after the catch, the fewest in the NFL with that many pass attempts.
• Jones is 1-12 SU, 5-8 ATS at night in his career.
• Jones is 0-5 SU at home in primetime (DAL X3, TB, PIT).
• Only one other QB over the last 20 years is 0-4 SU or worse at home at night — Mac Jones, who is 0-4 SU.
• Over the last 20 years, 96 QBs have made 5+ primetime starts, Daniel Jones’ 1-12 SU (7.7%) mark is the lowest win percentage (min. five primetime starts).
• Teams after playing the 49ers were 1-16 SU last season. This year, they are 1-1 SU, but overall, they are 10-28 SU since the start of the 2021 season.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 4 Public Sides
Eagles (-8.5) vs. WAS					83% of bets
Chiefs (-8.5) at NYJ					80% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 4 Line Moves
Chiefs (-2 to -8.5) at NYJ
49ers (-10.5 to -14) vs. ARI

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 4
Dolphins at Bills (-3)					150k bets
Chiefs at Jets (+8.5)					120k bets

Biggest NFL Week 4 Public Totals
MIA-BUF (O/U: 53.5)					80% of bets to over
MIN-CAR (O/U: 46.5)					78% of bets to over

System: Don't Fall In Love With Home Division Teams. Since 2015, home teams in division games are 50 total games below .500 ATS.

Matches: GB, CLE, NO, BUF, PHI, LAC, SF

$$$: Fade Home Div Teams

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 season

the game is a Division game

the team is the Home team

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-7,131

WON

359-411-19

RECORD

47%

WIN%

View System

System: Early Starts. Teams that failed to score a TD in their previous game (6 pts or less) have been good first-half ATS bets the following week.

Matches: ATL, TEN, WAS

$$$: Bet 1H After 6 pts or less prev game

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the team's 1 Game Points streak is between 0 and 6

$2,633

WON

111-79-7

RECORD

58%

WIN%

View System

System: Rest Is Good For The Under. When both teams are on extended rest, take a look at the under. It is 91-47-1 (66%) since 2018.

Matches: NYG/SEA

$$$: Bet Under Recently Both Teams Long Rest

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team has had between 8 and 100 days off

the Visitor team has had between 8 and 100 days off

$3,643

WON

91-47-1

RECORD

66%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet – which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

There are only four players who have scored a TD in each week of 2023 NFL season. Here's the Anytime TD Profits had you bet them each week:

• Christian McCaffrey +1.95U
• Tyreek Hill +3.3U
• Raheem Mostert +3.7U
• Mike Evans +4.6U

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team-first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• It's the Pharaoh Brown show! 110-1 first TD hit vs Jets.
• Jimmy Graham is somehow still in the NFL scoring TDs. Big +3500 hit.
• Only two players have scored first TD of game two weeks in a row: Davante Adams (+16.5U) & James Conner (+18.5)

League Trends ⤵️

All About Luck

Week 4 Luck Rankings

+ Last week, unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — went 3-1 ATS. Overall, that moves unlucky teams to 103-58-6 (63.5%) ATS since the start of 2018.

+ Unlucky teams in the Action Network Luck Matchups have gone 7-4-2 against the spread. 

Under The Radar

Follow Unders

+ In games this season where the total fell from the opening to closing lines (e.g., 55.5 to 55), the under is 21-14 (60%).

+ The market line movement has done an incredible job at predicting unders in the NFL recently. Since 2021, unders are 198-153-1 (56.4%) when the total has dropped between the opening and closing lines, with a $100 bettor up $2,828, a +8% ROI.

The Bounce Back

Buy After a Bad Loss

Overall, teams who lost SU as favorites of a TD or more in their previous game are 146-118-12 ATS (55.3%) in the last 20 years.

In the first four games of the year, they are 28-11-1 ATS. This week that is the Cowboys, Ravens and Jaguars.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Miami Dolphins: 9-1 (MIA was 14-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Minnesota Vikings: 100-1 (MIN was 66-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
Dolphins					3-0	Win Total: 9.5
Colts					2-1	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers					2-1	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					2-1	Win Total: 6.5
49ers					3-0	Win Total: 10.5
Packers					2-1	Win Total: 7.5
Eagles					3-0	Win Total: 11.5
Falcons					2-1	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					2-1	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					2-1	Win Total: 8.5
Cardinals					1-2	Win Total: 4.5
Browns					2-1	Win Total: 9.5
Cowboys					2-1	Win Total: 9.5
Lions					2-1	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					2-1	Win Total: 9.5
Ravens					2-1	Win Total: 10.5

Trending Down 📉
Bills					2-1	Win Total: 10.5
Chiefs					2-1	Win Total: 11.5
Texans					1-2	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					1-2	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					1-2	Win Total: 6.5
Patriots					1-2	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					1-2	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					1-2	Win Total: 7.5
Jaguars					1-2	Win Total: 9.5
Chargers					1-2	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					1-2	Win Total: 9.5
Bengals					1-2	Win Total: 11.5
Panthers					0-3	Win Total: 7.5
Bears					0-3	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos					0-3	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					0-3	Win Total: 8.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Tua Tagovailoa (+350)	Patrick Mahomes (+550)	Josh Allen (+750)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (+475)	Christian McCaffrey (+475)	Justin Jefferson (+650)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+200)	T.J. Watt (+375)	Myles Garrett (+400)
Offensive ROY	C.J. Stroud (+350)	Bijan Robinson (+350)	Anthony Richardson (+550)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (+100)	Will Anderson (+550)	Christian Gonzalez (+800)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (+100)	Tua Tagovailoa (+160)	T.J. Watt (+1400)
Coach Of The Year	Mike McDaniel (+350)	Dan Campbell (+700)	Matt Lefleur (+1000)
Updated as of September 26th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Keenan Allen made one of the biggest jumps of the week for Offensive Player of the Year going from 125-1 to 35-1 after having 18 receptions on Sunday.
• For Offensive Rookie of the Year, the big jump came from C.J. Stroud, who went from 15-1 to the co-favorite at +350.
• With Damar Hamlin's Comeback Player of the Year odds dropping since he hasn't been active yet, T.J. Watt and Lamar Jackson have moved up the odds since last week.

Trivia Instructions

For this week's trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer.

Trivia Question: Sunday marks the 40th International Series Game for the NFL. Which QB is the most profitable against the spread playing overseas?

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