Chargers vs Raiders Best Bets, NFL Picks
Our betting analysts has made their NFL picks for Thursday Night Football. We're on a trio of Chargers player props, given the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders offense. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | NFL Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs Raiders Best Bets
Everett's playing time has been rather inconsistent this season, but he has played a minimum of 39 snaps in each of the Chargers' last three games and should again be a major part of the passing game tonight.
With Easton Stick taking over as the starting quarterback, you can expect the Chargers' passing attack to feature plenty of quick-game concepts. Everett had eight targets last week, four with Stick under center, and he's had a minimum of four receptions in each of the last three games ever since his playing time ticked up after the Chargers' Week 11 bye.
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Everett's receptions total is 3.5 with a plus number on the over, which I'm targeting, as well. The Raiders are 31st in completion percentage allowed to the tight end position as 79% of all attempts thrown toward the position have resulted in a reception. Las Vegas is 25th in defensive DVOA defending the tight end position specifically.
The Chargers are more likely to face a negative game script, which should result in a handful of quick screens and check-downs.
Pick: Gerald Everett Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
We really don't know what Stick is going to look like as an NFL quarterback. We only have a small sample size of him as a pro, but he's likely going to run based on his college football history.
Stick had 41 rushing touchdowns in college, including 17 scores and 677 rushing yards in his senior season at North Dakota State. This game probably isn't going to be high-scoring, but I expect Stick to scramble often.
This is a bit of an unknown, but I have this as solid expected value and would hit it down to +650.
Pick: Easton Stick ATD (+700)
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By Matt Trebby
There isn’t one Chargers receiver who’s going to step up in place of Keenan Allen, who has already been ruled out of this game.
Despite the shaky rookie season, I’m backing Quentin Johnston to help pick up some of the slack. We’re getting a nice plus number on the over on his receptions prop, and I see value there.
Johnston has gone over 2.5 receptions in each of his last two games, both of which were obviously started by Justin Herbert. There’s reason to believe he has a decent connection with the Chargers’ next starting QB, though.
Johnston did connect with QB Easton Stick for a 57-yard reception in the Chargers’ loss to Denver, though, and there is familiarity between the two. Johnston actually caught his first touchdown with the Chargers back in the preseason in a win over the Rams and, you guessed it, Stick threw it to him.
You’d think the Chargers would attempt to come out with a run-heavy approach to help Stick, but Los Angeles ranks 25th in Rush DVOA. The Raiders don’t have a run defense to write home about, but the Chargers have been impressively inefficient on the ground all season to the point that Austin Ekeler’s workload has been called into question.
Johnston averaged 3.3 targets per game in the Chargers’ first nine games of the season, but that’s up to five per game over their last four. Johnston’s average depth of target on the season is 11.9, but it’s been below 9.0 in three of the Chargers’ last five games. While Johnston connected deep with Stick against the Broncos, it wouldn’t shock me if there were more high-percentage looks planned for the QB’s first career start.
Sean Koerner’s numbers project Johnston for 3.0 receptions and Chris Raybon has him pegged for 3.4, as of 10:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday night on Action Labs. Those projections may change on Thursday morning, but as long as we’re getting a plus number on a projection of at least 2.7 or higher, this is a no-brainer.
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