Texans vs Falcons Odds, Pick for Week 5
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 42 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 42 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Texans vs. Falcons odds have Atlanta as slight home favorites in Week 5 despite a losing stretch.
After uncompetitive losses in the first two weeks of the season, the Texans, led by C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans, have been the league's most-improved team. Houston dominated Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks to pull into a four-way tie for first in the AFC South.
The Falcons started with consecutive wins against the Panthers and Packers, but have since lost to the Lions and Jaguars in mostly non-competitive games. Even though Atlanta is the home team and should have some success running the ball, the situational spot, extra travel returning from London and poor play from Desmond Ridder leaves them as a vulnerable favorite.
The market had moved toward Houston all week from +3 to +1.5, before moving back toward Falcons -2.5 on Sunday, but the market still hasn't caught up to this quickly improving Texans team, which is the crux of my Texans vs. Falcons pick for Week 5.
Texans vs. Falcons
Matchup Analysis
Ridder is bottom five in success rate and second to last in EPA + CPOE composite. Only the injured version of Joe Burrow is worse through the first four games.
If Atlanta wants to successfully carry such poor quarterback play, it needs to be elite at running the ball. On paper, the Falcons offense should be excellent at rushing, but the reality is that they've been marginally above average.
The Falcons rank eighth in EPA per rush, 16th in success rate and seventh in rushing DVOA. This offense isn’t good enough to warrant being a favorite when you consider how much better Houston is at quarterback.
In college, Stroud had large splits in his performance when in a clean pocket vs. under pressure — that trend has carried over into the early stages of his NFL career.
Stroud is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with a 67.3% completion rate when not pressured — that includes six touchdowns, three big-time throws and a 90.3 PFF grade. His numbers decline dramatically when pressured. He averages 4.7 yards per attempt with four turnover-worthy plays and a 36.3 PFF grade.
If you can get to Stroud, you can rattle him and force mistakes.
Bet Houston vs. Atlanta at FanDuel
The Falcons defense finished last season with the worst pass rush in the NFL; they are 17th in pass rush win rate and 26th in PFF pass rush grade thus far in 2023. Stroud should have time to throw against a mediocre pass rush. He also gets left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from injury as an added bonus.
When you compare Stroud's clean pocket ability to Ridder, it's not even a competition. Ridder has one big-time throw, six turnover-worthy plays and just 6.9 yards per attempt when kept clean.
One of the main reasons I entered the season higher than the market on Houston long term was its improved defensive talent and coaching staff. There's real depth in this unit this year and DeMeco Ryans is still tinkering to figure out what his best team looks like on the field.
The pass rush has made noticeable improvements already. Houston is second in pass rush win rate and actually slowed down two capable offenses in Baltimore and Jacksonville.
It's difficult to see how the Falcons fight their way back into this game if they fall into a negative game script. Ridder will be forced to drop back and throw a bunch, and he's already produced 10 turnover-worthy plays despite relatively low dropback rates.
Texans vs. Falcons
Betting Picks & Predictions
You could view this as a buy low on the Falcons after two straight losses and a sell high on Houston after back-to-back quality wins.
But I think it's more likely that the market has not caught up to the true gulf in talent and production between Stroud and Ridder. Even though they're playing at home, it's also a poor situational spot for the Falcons coming back from London.
Atlanta opted to not take the bye after its London game, and the trend for those teams the following week isn't positive. Ten teams have played the following week after a London game – the opponents of those teams have gone over their team total seven times. The opponent has been tied or led in the fourth quarter of all 10 games.
I'd bet Houston at any underdog price on Sunday.
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