Oilers vs. Bruins Odds
| Oilers Odds | -120 |
| Bruins Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +102o / -122u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins on Tuesday, March 5 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Edmonton Oilers head to TD Garden to take on the Boston Bruins for the second and final time this season. When these teams faced off in Edmonton nearly two weeks ago, the Bruins emerged with a 6-5 overtime victory in what was a thrilling, back-and-forth affair.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make an Oilers vs. Bruins prediction and pick.
Edmonton Oilers
While the Oilers have won four games in a row, they have generally come back down to earth since their 16-game winning streak was snapped upon returning from the NHL All-Star break on Feb. 6. Edmonton is 8-5-1 since the hiatus, and appears locked into the second spot in the Pacific Division.
Although the wins aren’t coming quite as easily, the Oilers’ underlying numbers since the break are borderline flawless. Edmonton’s 3.19 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 ranks second in the NHL, and its 2.19 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranks fourth. The Oilers’ 59.26 xGF% at 5-on-5 ranks atop the league, thus there is no doubt they have continued to drive play and cave in opponents.
Connor McDavid is red hot, riding an 11-game point streak and sitting just three points shy of 100 through 57 games. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl is easily on pace to get there as well. And Zach Hyman, who has found the back of the net 10 times in Edmonton’s past eight games, is tied for second in the NHL in goals.
Stuart Skinner's roller-coaster year between the pipes has continued, but he is 28-13-2 with a 2.64 GAA, a .905 SV% and 10.02 GSAx.
Boston Bruins
For the Bruins, it's been a struggle since the All-Star break. Entering Monday, Boston is 4-4-5 with just two regulation wins since the start of February. Still, thanks to an excellent first half, the Bruins sit atop the Eastern Conference, alongside the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers.
The concern for the Bruins, though, is that their underlying numbers have also regressed. Heading into Monday’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston’s 2.66 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 since the break ranks 14th, and its 2.75 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranks 21st. The Bruins’ 49.14 xGF% at 5-on-5 indicates they are no longer dominating at even strength in the way we’ve become accustomed to.
With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci no longer in the fold, David Pastrnak has been left to shoulder the offensive burden. With 87 points through 62 games, Pastrnak has 34 more points than Brad Marchand, Boston’s second-leading scorer.
The good news for the Bruins is that the goaltenders continue to do their part. Linus Ullmark, who should get the nod on Tuesday, is 16-7-3 on the season with a 2.80 GAA, a .910 SV% and 12.25 GSAx.
Tuesday marks Boston’s ninth back-to-back this season. The Bruins are 3-2-3 thus far in the second leg.
Oilers vs. Bruins
Betting Pick & Prediction
I like the Oilers to win this game, but my best bet is that Ullmark hits the over on his saves prop. Since he hasn't officially been named the starting goalie, the total is not yet available, but I expect it to be at 28.5 or 29.5.
Since the break, the Bruins are allowing 30.66 SA/60 at 5-on-5, the ninth-most in the NHL. Meanwhile, Edmonton is posting 33.07 SF/60 at 5-on-5 over that span, which ranks second in the NHL. When these teams last met, Jeremy Swayman recorded 37 saves for Boston on 42 shots.
I'm expecting the Bruins to get caved in for much of this game, especially since they'll be playing on tired legs. Thus, I'll play the over on Ullmark's saves at 29.5 or better.
Pick: Linus Ullmark Over 29.5 Saves
