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Chris Raybon's Picks
Today
Pending
Jalen Milroe o38.5-122
1u
82
LAC 1H ML/DET Full-Game ML Double Result+750
LAC
34
7
DET
0.5u
FINAL 8/01
LAC slight edge in 1H w/ top rookies expected to play, Lance at QB … but should eventually flip with DET playing QB2/3 Hooker/Allen entire game while LAC will give most of 2H to rookie UDFA QB4 DJ Uiagalelei (52.5% comp, 4 TD, 6 INT in ‘24 at FSU).
136
PHI o20.5 Team Total-325
DAL
@
PHI
1u
09/05 12:20 AM
56
CLE +6-110
CIN
@
CLE
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
113
NYG +7.5-110
NYG
@
WAS
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
114
JAC o23.5 Team Total-130
CAR
@
JAC
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
89
NYJ +3-110
PIT
@
NYJ
1u
09/07 5:00 PM
148
De’Von Achane u7.5 Total Rushing TD-145
1u
As discussed on #FantasyFlex Season Long Props ep.
30
Jaylen Warren u4.5 Total Rushing TD-130
1u
1 on 120 carries in Year 1 under Smith. Johnson + Gainwell better GL options + Rodgers will throw in close.
21
Futures
Buffalo Bills+750
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
1u
Better path to #1 seed than KC, BAL.
Over wins in 7/8 with McDermott so high floor, unrealized ceiling.
Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.
82
Baltimore Ravens+775
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.9u
Teams +600 to +999 to win SB win 18.6% of time vs 12.3% implied odds (+6.3%) since 2002.
70
Kansas City Chiefs+850
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.9u
SB win in 3 of 7 since Mahomes took over, SB appearance in 5 of 7.
Tough first half schedule so opportunity to add more in-season.
58
Pittsburgh Steelers o8.5+115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
72
Jacksonville Jaguars o7.5-110
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1st time HC 56-45-4 (55.4%) over win total since 2002. #InLiamWeTrust
93
Miami Dolphins u8.5-155
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Win totals 8 to 8.5 just 7-13 (35%) since NFL went to 17g schedule in '21.
LT Armstead retired and MIA rumored to be trading remaining best players (WR Hill, CB Ramsey, TE Smith). Tua 4+ missed games in 3-of-4 seasons since becoming Week 1 starter.
89
Jacksonville Jaguars+335
2025 NFL AFC South - To Win
1u
1st-time HC +200 to +399 win division 33.3% of time since 2002 vs 27.6% implied odds (+5.7%). #InLiamWeTrust
80
San Francisco 49ers+2200
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Last 9 Super Bowls feat a combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (4), PHI (3), McVay (2), Burrow (1)...and 3 Shanahan offenses.
Efficient QB (Purdy 8.9 career YPA), 8 draft picks in top 160, Saleh back at DC, #1 easiest SOS.
SF last 6: 2 last place finishes, to NFC Championship Ls, 2 Super Bowl Ls.
This sets up as a year where the 49ers let a season ruin their injury plans.
57
Los Angeles Rams+2200
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
Last 7 Super Bowls have featured some combo of Mahomes (5), Brady (2), PHI (2), Shanahan (2), Burrow (1)...and McVay (2).
McVay/Stafford/LAR the only non-KC/non-Brady/non-PHI SB winner since 2016 (9 seasons).
50
Green Bay Packers+2500
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.5u
GB went 0-6 vs DET/MIN/PHI and 11-1 vs everyone else. DET/MIN/PHI got worse, GB got better.
Love top-5 in QBR (69.3) and NYA (7.50) in a "down" year, defense went from No. 27 to No. 7 in DVOA, and Alexander loss will be overrated (hasn't appeared in more than 7g since 2022, 2 INT over that span).
64
Chicago Bears+500
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
1u
DET, MIN likely regress from 15/14 win seasons = GB and CHI undervalued, but CHI massively so for Div.
Upgraded at HC/PC (Ben Johnson), interior OL (Thuney/Dalman/Jonah Jackson), skill talent (TE Loveland R1, WR Burden Iii R2, washed Allen gone), defensive front (Jarrett, Odenigbo) and have last place schedule in gauntlet division (NYG/NO/CLE at home).
Teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied.
70
Philadelphia Eagles u11.5-120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Lost OC Kellen Moore + a ton of defensive talent: ED Josh Sweat (36th/119 PFF), ED Bryce Huff (38th/119), DT Milton Williams (13th/118), LB Oren Burks (4th/84), CB Darius Slay (23rd/116), CB Isaiah Rodgers (24th/116), S CJ Gardner-Johnson (14th/98) + LB Nakobe Dean (12th/84) may miss time after major knee injury in Jan.
Top-5 hardest SOS w/ away games at KC, BUF, GB, TB, LAC and home vs DET, LAR, DEN, CHI + WAS H/A.
Win totals 11.5+ 7-3 to under since 2021, double digit win totals 71-59-6 (55%) to under since 2002.
75
Minnesota Vikings u8.5+145
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Brutal home slate PHI/BAL/WAS/CIN + DET/GB/CHI H/A, QB yet to take a reg szn snap,
14-3 record in 2024 was 2.9 wins over what their point diff implied. Teams that overperform by 2+ wins are 30-14-3 (68%) to under in following season.
85
Detroit Lions (No)+210
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
Lost OC Ben Johnson, pass G coordinator Tanner Engstrand, DC Aaron Glenn, 2 best interior OL (Ragnow, Zeitler).
Face top-3 hardest SOS feat 11 playoff teams, 7 outdoor games, road slate of PHI/KC/BAL/WAS/LAR/CIN/GB/CHI/MIN.
Since new playoff format in 2020, the 27 teams +185 or longer to miss playoffs have missed 33.3% of time compared to 25.5% implied odds (+7.8%).
71
Arizona Cardinals+575
2025 NFL NFC West - To Win
1u
SF/LAR better SB bets given pedigree but ARI not far off as a regular season team given similarly soft schedule, less injury-prone roster, offensive talent (+ Harrison improvement upside), drafting of defensive players in R1/2/3/4/5 to address biggest weakness.
Still seeing ARI behind SEA in spots which should not be the case (teams ranked last in Div odds since 2003 are +3.1% vs implied while teams ranked 1-3 are -6.0% vs implied).
Would play at +400 or better and expecting this to be a lot shorter after Week 5-6 (ARI starts at NO/CAR/at SF/SEA/TEN/at IND).
66
Breece Hall u5.5-145
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
1u
as discussed on #FantasyFlex Season Long Props Pod
34
Baker Mayfield u30.5-158
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
1u
as discussed on #FantasyFlex Season Long Props Pod
43
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1u
Entered last season as DEN RB1, played all 17g, led them in carries yet rushed for only 513. Most likely settles in as a passing down RB with Blue/Sanders/TBD overtaking him on run downs.
28
Cam Skattebo u4.5+120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
1u
Just 3 of 16 4th round rookie RBs have cleared this since 2021. Missed enough camp time that he likely starts as RB3 with no guarantee of being RB1 or goal-line RB.By the time he ascends, Dart is likely QB1 and is a rushing threat near GL.
30
Breece Hall u900.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1u
876 last season and could lose work to Allen.
52
Isiah Pacheco u725.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1u
Efficiency decline each season, 6 injuries since turning pro and doesn’t bode well KC kept 4 RBs on 53, 2 more on PS.
44
Tank Bigsby u675.5-110
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1u
Likely stuck in 4-way RBBC unless traded and could get least playing time due to pass-game limitations. Proj 500
28
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 0-1-0 | 0% | -1.00u |
| Last 30 Days | 1-1-0 | 50% | -0.11u |
| All Time | 2083-1669-64 | 55% | 167.51u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 946-732-28 | 55% | 104.50u |
| NBA | 781-628-24 | 55% | 56.88u |
| NHL | 108-86-3 | 55% | 19.74u |
| MLB | 61-45-4 | 55% | 5.30u |
| UFC | 5-2-0 | 71% | 1.73u |
| World Cup | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0.50u |
| NCAAF | 1-1-0 | 50% | -0.09u |
| UFL | 5-8-2 | 33% | -3.77u |
| NCAAB | 155-156-3 | 49% | -23.07u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Ray-Ray McCloud under 0.5 receiving yards in 2022 Wild Card Playoff vs. Seattle.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Mac Jones safety with under two minutes to go to put Patriots down 4 (21-17) when I had them +3.5.
Specialties
- NFL spreads
- NFL totals
- NFL props
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- NFL DFS
- NBA props
- NBA spreads
- NBA totals