The New York Yankees host the San Diego Padres on on May 5, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
San Diego entered the season with less fanfare than expected, but it's quickly reminded people how elite it is. The Padres are off to a 22-11 start, the second-best record in baseball. New York is also off to a great start, sitting atop the AL East standings and looking to make another run to the World Series.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction, Picks
- Padres vs Yankees picks: Under 7.5
My Padres vs Yankees best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Lines
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -102o / -118u | +125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -102o / -118u | -150 |
Padres vs Yankees Projected Pitchers
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | Stat | Carlos Rodon (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 1.78 / 3.05 | ERA /xERA | 3.43 / 3.00 |
| 2.28 / 3.24 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 3.24 |
| 0.82 | WHIP | 0.98 |
| 23.3 | K-BB% | 20.1 |
| 31.8 | GB% | 47.3 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 112 | Location+ | 96 |
Padres vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Free-agent Nick Pivetta didn't sign a deal until mid-February, when he inked a four-year contract with the Padres.
Coming a pair of strong seasons with the Red Sox, Pivetta has taken his game to another level to start his career with San Diego.
Through six starts, Pivetta is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA, the second-best mark in the National League. He's allowed one run or fewer in four outings and continues to strike out batters at an elite rate.
Pivetta has a terrific fastball that he throws more than 50% of the time, and opponents haven't been able to figure out his off-speed stuff.
Even without superstar Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth, the Padres' offense ranks top-10 in wRC+. They've gotten a bit unlucky on offense this season and are struggling with runners in scoring position.
San Diego only has seven home runs all season with a runner on base, the second-fewest in the league.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is leading the way with an MVP-caliber start. He's batting .328 with a .973 OPS and eight home runs.
But after him, the rest of this team needs to step up. Manny Machado is starting to pick things up, but Xander Bogaerts has struggled. The Padres really need Merrill back.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Every start for Carlos Rodon has been very similar this season. He looks brilliant until he doesn’t.
Rodon will go innings where he looks unhittable, but once he gets into trouble, it's snowballed on him a bit.
That being said, he's had three really strong outings in a row and currently sports a 3.43 ERA.
Rodon has really increased his strikeout rate this season, thanks in large part to the success of his slider. Opponents are hitting just .109 with a 46% strikeout rate against his top breaking ball.
Control issues have gotten Rodon into trouble at times, but when he isn’t beating himself, he's been great.
Speaking of MVP-caliber starts, holy smokes, Aaron Judge. The two-time AL MVP is on his way to a third award, hitting .423 with a 1.287 OPS. He's already hit 11 home runs and has cemented himself as the toughest out in baseball.
Judge has gotten a lot of help this season, too. Paul Goldschmidt has returned to his perennial All-Star form and Ben Rice has really taken a step forward in his sophomore season.
New York leads the league in home runs and has the best team OPS.
Padres vs Yankees Pick, Best Bets
Monday’s weather report calls for cloudy with a chance of strikeouts in the Bronx. The recent spring heat has returned to 50-degree weather, with 10 mph winds blowing in and a 70% chance of rain at first pitch.
We could see this game delayed or even postponed, but if they're able to play, the weather should benefit the pitchers.
Both Rodon and Pivetta have elite strikeout stuff. They each rank in the top 10 in K/9 rate, with Rodon sitting sixth at 11.14 K/9. Rodon ran into trouble early in the season, but he's settled down for three great outings in a row while striking out at least seven batters in five straight starts.
When Rodon has gotten himself into trouble, it's been due to walks and a multi-run home run flipping an inning quickly. The Padres rank in the bottom 10 in walks and have struggled to get timely hits with runners on. Only one team has fewer home runs with runners on base this season.
Pivetta has also found a grove, missing at least six bats in his last four starts. He's allowed one run or fewer in four of his six outings this season. Pivtta has a great fastball and has used his sweeper and curveball really well.
Even when these two starters leave the game, San Diego’s bullpen has a blistering 1.73 ERA, the best mark in the league. New York isn't far behind the Padres at seventh. They both sit top-10 in reliever xFIP and K-BB%, as well.
Given the weather conditions and the ability for these pitchers to miss bats, take the under on Monday.
Pick: Under 7.5
