The Seattle Mariners (8-8) roll into Cincinnati to take on the Reds (8-8) at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio and Root Sports Northwest.
Who has the edge in this battle between .500 clubs? Find my Mariners vs Reds prediction for Tuesday's series opener below.
Both the Mariners and Reds enter Jackie Robinson Day on a roll; the Mariners have won four straight while the Reds are coming off a sweep of the Pirates.
My Mariners vs Reds Prediction
- Mariners vs Reds pick:Reds ML (play to -120)
My Mariners vs Reds best bet is on Cincinnati. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Reds Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110/-110 | -115 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -110/-110 | -105 |
Mariners vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 0.96 / 2.54 | ERA /xERA | 2.12 / 4.19 |
| 3.16 / 4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 4.00 / 3.90 |
| 0.70 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 8.0% | K-BB% | 2.5% |
| 49.2% | GB% | 52.1% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 112 | Location+ | 113 |
Sean Paul's Mariners vs Reds Preview
Mariners Betting Preview: Fade Castillo
Initially, my gut wanted to go with the under – until I dove deeper to discover the best angle here. That angle is fading the former Red, Luis Castillo, who is staring down some pretty ugly incoming regression. He owns a 2.19 ERA but his xERA is 4.19 with a 4.00 FIP and 3.90 xFIP.
Nothing about Castillo's profile stands out. The only two categories he ranks above the 50th percentile in are ground-ball rate (72nd percentile) and chase rate (65th percentile). Opponents make hard contact versus Castillo's offerings, as he sits in the 13th percentile in barrel rate. Plus, being an extreme ground-ball pitcher can lead to variance. On days when Castillo's sinker isn't sinking, those hard-hit balls will be hard-hit fly balls and the ground balls can find holes, too.
Seattle is where bats go to die. While that may sound somber, the numbers over the past four of five seasons tell a pretty sad story. It's been a bit better this year, as the Mariners boast a 103 wRC+
Jorge Polanco is a real difference-maker for Seattle, leading the team with a 194 wRC+. He's hitting .378 with three homers, flashing both the contact and power. Polanco is the only real "contact hitter" in the lineup, as Seattle is hitting just .208 this year, but their 19 homers have lifted the overall stats.
Most of the Mariners' offensive success comes against right-handers. Sadly for them, they face one of MLB's more underrated southpaws, Nick Lodolo, in this duel.
The Mariners' offense is awful against left-handers, posting a 75 wRC+ with a 29.9% K rate in 184 plate appearances. They have the 10th-most plate appearances, but the fourth-most strikeouts and the eighth-worst wRC+. That's a bad sign, especially since Dylan Moore is by far the Mariners' best southpaw smasher.
Reds Betting Preview: Lodolo is Dealing
Meanwhile, the Reds have a 65 wRC+, which is the third lowest in baseball. It's tough to make the Mariners' porous offense look good, but the Reds somehow do. The list of players on the Reds roster with 40+ plate appearances and a wRC+ over 100 is pretty short. Well, it's really short because Elly De La Cruz is the highest at 92.
At least the Reds have a 75 wRC+ against right-handers. The main issue is the lack of plate discipline, which is still an issue against right-handers with a 6% walk rate. Castillo is more than willing to issue walks, so the Reds' approach needs to change against his pitches with endless movement.
I'd be remiss not to mention that Lodolo is also likely facing regression. He has a 0.96 ERA with a 2.54 xERA, 3.16 FIP, and a shocking 4.23 xFIP. Lodolo is known for generating strikeouts, posting a 9.4 K/9 or better in all three MLB seasons prior to 2025. So far, Lodolo has a 3.86 K/9 through 18 2/3 innings, but his walk rate is down from 2.89 to 0.48.
So, is Lodolo's overall stuff less effective? Yes and no. Clearly, things are going well since he's pitching to a sub 1.00 ERA, but his Stuff+ is down from 108 to 98 and his Location+ went from 97 to 112. I still buy into Lodolo striking more batters out. The Mariners' constant swing-and-miss issues should also make that easier.
Mariners vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the Reds here.
Both pitchers will begin to pitch slightly worse, but Castillo is a very fadeable pitcher and the Mariners' offense is quite home run or bust.
The Reds' offense works well by putting the ball in play and letting their speed make a difference on the base paths. It's a very old-school style, but facing a low-strikeout pitcher like Castillo works right into the Reds' hands.
Pick: Reds ML (play to -120)
Moneyline
My best bet in this matchup is on the Reds moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
That said, I'm not willing to bet Cincinnati on the run line.
Over/Under
I don't see value on the total in this game.
