The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff provided a heaping helping of hope to the college football middle class.
Not only did Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana and SMU make the field, but programs like Iowa State and South Carolina were right in the mix.
Those programs were never even in the conversation to win the national title during the BCS and four-team CFP eras. Access finally exists for these programs, and it’s fueled by the postseason format change and the transfer portal.
So, who's next in line? Let's dive into my college football futures and NCAAF picks for the 2025 season.
Texas Tech Over 8.5 Wins
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The Red Raiders have the coaching, talent and schedule to get over the hump.
Let’s start with the coaching component. Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich replaces Zach Kittley, who left to become the head coach of Florida Atlantic.
Leftwich presided over historically good offenses at Incarnate Word between 2019-22. In his lone season as the Cardinals' OC in 2022, IW averaged 581 yards and 51.2 points per game.
It nearly upset North Dakota State at the Fargo Dome in the FCS Playoffs, falling 35-32 to the Bison. Keep in mind, NDSU is 38-1 in home playoff games dating back to 1973, so throwing a scare into that team in Fargo was a major accomplishment.
Leftwich followed head coach G.J. Kinne to Texas State in 2023 and helped turn things around overnight. Prior to his arrival in San Marcos, Texas State couldn’t score (111th) or move the football (113th total offense).
In 2023, Texas State was electric offensively, crashing the top 15 in points per game (36.7 PPG) and total offense (457.6 YPG). He turned running back Ismail Mahdi into an all-purpose demon (166.8 YPG, first) and made TJ Finley — a complete reclamation project — look like a seasoned veteran at quarterback.
For an encore, Leftwich’s offense improved to seventh nationally in points per game and fifth in total offense last fall. And this was with a new quarterback and just 54% of offensive production returning (91st).
In short, Leftwich is an offensive genius who finds ways to put defensive coordinators on their heels while elevating each of his offensive weapons.
His Veer and Shoot attack spreads out opponents and forces them to cover the width of the field. Once defenders are stretched sideline-to-sideline, he pounds the rock with a 55% run rate in 2024.
And when they do go to the air, his system creates high-percentage throws all over the field. Jordan McCloud completed 70% of his attempts last fall and finished with the second-highest QBR among Group of Five quarterbacks.
Leftwich is joined on this staff by another rising star in defensive coordinator Shiel Wood. The former Broyles Award nominee achieved tremendous success in one-year stints at Troy and Tulane as he climbed the coaching ladder.
His 3-4 base defense relies on versatile athletes at the second and third levels, and this roster has the kind of players that could make his defense sing in 2025.
Speaking of talent, Texas Tech won the transfer portal lottery.
Head coach Joey McGuire brought in 12 four-star recruits, half of which will bolster the Red Raiders defense. This team already had continuity in terms of returning production, ranking fourth overall and first on defense — but now they have game-changing transfers to pepper in as well.
USC transfer Quinten Joyner could be a 1,000-yard rusher, and Romello Height has double-digit TFL potential as an edge rusher.
Schedule-wise, the Red Raiders have a cupcake nonconference slate that features UAPB, Kent State and Oregon State.
They should be favored by five or more points in every conference home game and will have a puncher’s chance to score an upset or two when they travel to Arizona State, Kansas State and Utah.
Win any of those three, and this over will cash.
