Welcome to Conference Championship week.
For my situational spots this week, I've got three pre-game bets, a hedge on a pre-season American Conference future, and a potential live bet.
Read on for my College Football Picks and expert Conference Championship best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | James Madison -22.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Under 44.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Indiana +4.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Georgia LIVE |
James Madison -22.5 vs. Troy
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
From a numbers perspective, I'm not too far off from the current prices in the market, as I make JMU a 24-point favorite.
That's not too surprising this weekend, where there's likely not going to be too much value from a pure projections standpoint on a weekend with nine conference matchups.
However, I think the Dukes are worthy of a bet for a few reasons.
The most obvious is the incentive to win by a margin here.
With the Dukes now ranked in the top 25 of the CFP rankings, they could make the dance if Duke upsets Virginia. Winning by as much as possible can only help their cause, so I doubt Bob Chesney takes his foot off the gas with a big lead late.
After all, this is a JMU team that has five league wins by at least 25 points this season, including a pair against what I consider the two other best teams in the conference in Old Dominion (by 36) and Texas State (by 32).
Secondly, this sets up as a fantastic on-field matchup for JMU.
Troy can't run the ball (bottom 20 nationally in Rush EPA). The Trojans won't have any success running the ball against a JMU defense that has allowed a minuscule 2.5 yards per attempt on the ground, ranking fifth nationally.
You can hit some rush explosives on JMU, but Troy's rushing attack has almost no explosiveness.
For the Trojans to move the ball, they will need quarterback Goose Crowder (who recently returned from injury) to have a fantastic day through the air.
While JMU's aggressive defense can allow passing explosives at times, I'm not sure Crowder will consistently have enough time to get the ball downfield to his talented group of wideouts.
The Troy pass protection is a significant area of weakness, especially since it lost both starting tackles to injury. On the season, Troy ranks 115th nationally in pressure rate allowed and dead last in sacks allowed with 49. That's problematic against a ferocious James Madison front that ranks sixth in pressure rate.
I'm expecting plenty of drive-killing negative plays and a few turnovers from Crowder, who has completed just 44% of his passes when under pressure, with one Big Time Throw to six Turnover Worthy Plays.
In fact, among 149 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop-backs under pressure this season, Crowder is one of only four with a TWP rate north of 10%.
I don't see how Troy moves the ball, similar to what we saw recently in its 33-0 loss at Old Dominion, where the Trojans were out-gained by 503 total yards to 138.
JMU should have no issues moving the ball on the ground, which is when its offense operates at peak efficiency and sets up the deep shots down the field.
It also doesn't hurt that the temperatures will be in the 20s, which isn't ideal for a warmer-weather team like Troy.
As long as JMU comes out with its hair on fire in front of a raucous home crowd on a Friday night and builds an early lead, this should get ugly.
JMU's defense has played at a top-15 schedule-adjusted level all season, and its offense has really picked up over the second half, which I believe is because of quarterback Alonza Barnett's improved health.
Lastly, JMU should be healthier for this game with star receiver Landon Ellis and stud linebacker Gannon Weathersby likely returning from injury. The only name to watch is defensive lineman Immanuel Bush, who is listed as questionable.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, only six other teams have closed as a favorite of more than 23 points in their conference championship. Those teams went 5-1 ATS (83.3%), covering by nearly 12 points per game.
Pick: James Madison -23 or Better
| | | |
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Under 44.5
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
In typical MAC fashion, the conference championship matchup came down to the final week, with Western Michigan wrapping up the outright regular-season title with a victory over Eastern Michigan, and Miami Ohio winning a three-way tiebreaker for second place after defeating Ball State.
The RedHawks are becoming a fixture at Ford Field, making their third consecutive appearance in the MAC title game. Western Michigan will make the trip to Detroit for the first time since 2016.
These two teams did meet in the regular season (in Oxford), with Miami rallying in the fourth quarter, scoring 17 unanswered points, to pull out a 26-17 victory after trailing 16-9 with just over 10 minutes left in regulation.
Quarterback DeQuan Finn had a very productive day at the office, but he has since surprisingly left the program to prepare for the NFL draft.
Head coach Chuck Martin initially turned to backup Henry Hesson, who had a miserable outing against Toledo, finishing 11-for-38 passing for 147 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
As a result, Martin decided to roll the dice with freshman Thomas Gotkowski over the final two must-win games. That decision paid off, with Gotkowski leading the RedHawks to a pair of decisive victories over Buffalo and Ball State while throwing for four touchdowns and no interceptions.
So, who are these teams?
You can almost think of the Western Michigan offense as the MAC's service academy.
Offensive coordinator Walt Bell has wholly changed the offense this season to one of the most run-heavy units in college football.
The offensive line isn't great, and the passing attack, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally in EPA and Success Rate, is extremely limited outside of some occasional splash plays to Talique Williams.
The Broncos are going to relentlessly pound the rock with running back Jalen Buckley (with some Devin Miles mixed in) and frequently utilize the legs of quarterback Broc Lowry, who actually led the team in both rush attempts and yards during the regular season, where Western Michigan ranked in the top 10 nationally in quarterback-designed run usage.
It's not an explosive ground game, but it can be very efficient (and very effective in short-yardage situations) at keeping the chains moving on long, methodical drives.
That type of offense works very well in conjunction with a dominant defense that features a stout linebacker corps. The pass defense is especially dominant, in large part due to a front that wreaks havoc in opposing backfields (third in Sack EPA). The leader of that charge is defensive end Nadame Tucker, who has a whopping 51 pressures on the season.
Teams can run a bit on Western Michigan, but really struggle in obvious passing downs.
Miami actually profiles pretty similarly to Western Michigan.
The RedHawks sport an outstanding defense that can generate elite pressure (top 10 in Sack EPA and Pressure Rate), in large part thanks to defensive end Adam Trick, who has more pressures (63) than Tucker on the season.
A pair of fifth-year senior safeties in Eli Blakey and Silas Walters patrol the back end and really help limit anything explosive through the air or on the ground — a trademark of the Miami defense under Martin.
The linebacker room also cleans everything up on the second level, which is essential because you can push the Miami front around some (13th percentile in Line Yards).
Although it's worth monitoring the status of stud linebacker Corban Hondru — who had 12 tackles and a sack in the first meeting — as he's listed as questionable after missing the final two regular-season games due to an injury (I don't believe it was too serious).
On the other side of the ball, the RedHawks offense operates at a very slow pace and ultimately wants to lean on its offensive line, which has plus size but also some deficiencies outside of stud right tackle Drew Terrill. Left tackle Eric Smith really struggles in pass protection, which could spell trouble against Tucker.
There's been plenty of moving parts behind that offensive line throughout the season. The RedHawks are now onto their second starting running back (Jordan Brunson, who has been pretty good) following a season-ending injury to Kenny Tracy, in addition to their third starting quarterback in Gotkowski.
While Miami does want to lean on its ground game, it will take plenty of deep shots, as evidenced by Gotkowski's astronomical 15.4 ADOT.
The RedHawks feature a competent wide receiver corps, led by walking explosive Kam Perry, who leads the nation in yards per catch among all receivers with at least 25 receptions (24.7). Cole Weaver has also come on late in the season as a nice complementary piece and seems to have a nice connection with Gotkowski.
Gotkowski is the wild card in this matchup.
The Western Michigan defense is one of the best at the Group of 5 level and will provide a much stiffer test than the Cardinals' and Bulls' stop units. We've only seen Gotkowski attempt nine passes under pressure so far this season. Until I see more than a two-game sample size, I have to assume the third-string freshman is worse (and less elusive) than Finn. The running game also likely won't be as dangerous without Finn's legs.
From a side perspective, I'm pretty close to the market here and, admittedly, don't have enough confidence in my read on the Miami quarterback situation. The RedHawks do have a significant Special Teams edge on paper, which could prove the difference in a likely close game.
However, I like the Under.
In the first meeting, the total closed at 40.5 with Finn at the helm. I had under 42 in that game (which I lost), but it closed closer to where I made it (40) and only barely snuck over in the final two minutes after Miami made a 51-yard field goal following a five-yard drive that came after a Western Michigan fumble.
Additionally, Western Michigan scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first half after a 70-yard kick return that set them up at the Miami 21-yard line. Without that, the game likely goes to the half 9-7 and stays under.
In fairness, these two played that first meeting outdoors, although the conditions were fine. In general, I make a 1.5-point upward adjustment for dome games, so I end up around 41 here with the freshman quarterback for Miami.
I don't envision many explosive plays, and Chuck Martin usually plays these games very conservatively, with field position always on his mind.
In a matchup of two borderline top-50 national defenses facing off against slow-moving offenses rated outside the top-100, this should be a race to 20, in my opinion.
I'm expecting a decent amount of sacks on passing downs to kill drives, so I just need to avoid too many explosive passing plays or key turnovers that lead to short fields.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, MAC Championship unders have gone 13-7 by an average of about six points per game. Each of the past six have stayed under.
Pick: Under 43.5 or Better
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Indiana +4.5 vs. Ohio State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Ohio State is undoubtedly the best team in the land, led by the nation's top wide receiver duo and a downright dominant defense.
Bo Jackson has even given the Buckeyes some juice in the ground game of late, which was lacking a bit earlier in the season.
If forced to nitpick, the defense didn't get tested much this season, and the right side of the offensive line still has some questions.
Additionally, while Jackson has provided a boost to the rushing attack, it still lacks the potency we saw last season with Judkins and Henderson.
Again, I'm nitpicking. This team is the clear and deserved No. 1 team in the country.
But, statistically, Indiana isn't too far behind. After all, this is a pair of undefeated squads facing off in a battle of 1 vs. 2 for a reason.
This version of Indiana is superior to last year's due to a higher ceiling at quarterback and better play in the trenches. The Hoosiers now can step up in class against the big boys, as they proved in a road win at Oregon earlier this season. That victory has aged very well.
The number is pretty close to what I make it, but I think the Hoosiers are worthy of a small bet for a few intangible reasons.
It's completely narrative-based and anecdotal, but I believe this game means more to Indiana, which desperately wants to prove it belongs. A Big Ten Championship would mean much more to the Hoosier program. I expect Cignetti to pull out all the stops.
Ohio State may continue to play at the nation's slowest pace, while showing few wrinkles.
Ryan Day has managed almost this entire season with the sole focus of peaking in the College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes are ahead of the curve in how they approach the regular season, but it may mean you don't get their peak version on Saturday.
There's also the possibility that Ohio State has an emotional letdown after finally getting a win over hated rival Michigan.
Lastly, Indiana should have a crowd advantage in Indianapolis.
And if this game remains close until the end, Indiana has at least been battle-tested in close games numerous times this season, while quarterback Julian Sayin has not.
Maybe that matters, or perhaps it's meaningless, but I did place a small bet on the Hoosiers, who should be close to full health.
Notable Nugget
Since losing to Michigan last year, Ohio State has gone 14-1-1 ATS (93.3%), covering by over a touchdown per game on average.
Pick: Indiana +4 or Better
| | | |
Georgia LIVE vs. Alabama
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I think Georgia gets its revenge here after out-playing Alabama in the first meeting but coming up a yard short in a three-point loss.
While the Dawgs won't play at home this time, they are playing in Atlanta at a venue they played at just last week and now have an extra day to prepare ahead of the rematch.
Georgia will also come into this game with better overall health (I'm still not convinced Ty Simpson is fully healthy) — although it will be without starting center Drew Bobo.
For some reason, Georgia could not move the ball on a horrid Georgia Tech defense last week, and things got even worse following Bobo's exit. I'm curious to see what the staff decides to do at center after trying some different things out in practice this week.
Ultimately, Georgia should have significantly more success running the ball than Alabama, and I believe that will be the difference. It also doesn't hurt that the Dawgs should have a rather large edge on Special Teams.
However, you're definitely not stealing at the current market price.
Plus, based on how most Georgia and Alabama games have played out recently, there's a decent chance that Georgia falls behind early. Let's take a look at each team's 16 SEC regular-season matchups over the past two seasons.
| Last 16 SEC Games | Georgia | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| First Quarter Margin | -49 | +50 |
| First Half Margin | +26 | +117 |
| Second Half Margin | +109 | -2 |
| Full Game Margin | +135 | +115 |
Georgia has a better overall SEC record and scoring margin over the past two seasons, despite trailing at the end of 11 of 16 first quarters (and 10 first halves), while Alabama has trailed at the end of the first half only three times in 16.
On average, Georgia has trailed by approximately a field goal at the end of the first quarter and has only out-scored its SEC opponents by 1.5 points on average in the first half.
Meanwhile, Alabama has led by over a field goal on average at the end of the first quarter and by more than a touchdown at halftime.
The story is almost the exact opposite over the final 30 minutes of league games.
While Alabama actually has a negative second-half point differential (-2), Georgia has out-scored its SEC opponents by 130 points in the third and fourth quarters combined.
On the surface, it makes sense, since DeBoer's teams are known for having great early scripts, while Kirby Smart is the best in-game adjuster in college football.
This scenario has also played out in both Georgia-Alabama meetings over the past two seasons.
The Tide have out-scored the Bulldogs 28-0 in the first quarter and 54-24 in the first half, while Georgia owns a +23 second-half margin.
In those two matchups, Alabama only mustered 11 total points after halftime and didn't even score over the final two quarters earlier this season.
We even saw this play out in last year's SEC Championship, where Texas led by a field goal at the end of the first and second quarters before ultimately falling in overtime to Georgia.
I may end up with a tiny pregame Georgia position, but I'll certainly jump in live if Alabama jumps out to another early lead.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has gone 36-22 ATS (62.1%) vs. ranked opponents. Only Urban Meyer has returned more profit for bettors in that role since 2005. However, Smart is just 3-5 ATS (and 1-7 SU) vs. ranked Alabama. Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has also excelled against the number vs. ranked foes with a 16-5-2 ATS mark (76.2%), covering by 5.7 points per game.
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North Texas Futures Hedge
vs. Tulane, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
If you joined me on North Texas 18-1 to win the American in the preseason, you might be wondering about hedging that ticket.
Personally, I'm looking to hedge somewhere between one-third and one-half of the potential profit if the Mean Green win the Conference Championship.
I'll be looking to do so with a chance at a small middle. I'll take the points with Tulane. Ideally, I'd like to get a +3 before kick.
Follow along in the Action App if you're interested in seeing my final plan of attack. Keep in mind you can also attack a potential hedge or middle live — although you obviously risk losing the opportunity to do anything if Tulane jumps out to an early lead and never looks back.
