College football bowl season has arrived. That means it's time to take a look at the board and attempt to get the best number before lines move in the coming weeks.
This week, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is looking at a Big Ten/SEC showdown in the ReliaQuest Bowl between the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) and Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, 6-2 SEC).
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl below.
Iowa vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
The beginning of bowl season marks the start of mass chaos in the college football world.
Dipping into the betting bonanza can be dicey because of the pending transfer portal, NFL opt-outs and a never-ending coaching carousel.
When placing wagers early in hopes of getting the best number, stability will always be appealing.
Enter the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are heading to their 12th straight bowl game and their seventh trip to Tampa for the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Head coach Kirk Ferentz said he expects the roster to remain intact for the upcoming game against Vanderbilt.
The Hawkeyes are motivated to face a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Diego Pavia, as well as a Vanderbilt team that nearly made the College Football Playoff.
The handicap for both Iowa and Vanderbilt comes down to their ability to stop the opposing team's rushing attack.
Vanderbilt utilizes a variety of run concepts, including man blocking tendencies, inside zone with running back Sedrick Alexander, and plenty of pulling linemen. The Commodores rank inside the top 25 in Rushing Success Rate thanks to the variety of concepts.
Pavia and Alexander have combined for 20 rushing touchdowns and average more than 3.2 yards after first contact.
While Iowa has struggled against a number of run concepts, the Hawkeyes have been excellent against some of Vanderbilt's most-used schemes.
Iowa boasts a 47% Success Rate against inside zone, which sits in the middle of the pack in FBS. However, the Hawkeyes have allowed an explosive from inside zone on just one of every 15 carries this season.
Defensive coordinator Phil Parker has also produced an excellent unit against pulling linemen. Iowa creates a negative play 11% of the time against offenses using that concept.
Lastly, Iowa's opponents have been stifled when it comes to man blocking concepts with heavy personnel. Pavia is the biggest benefactor of Vanderbilt's man blocking attempts, but Iowa holds a 56% Success Rate against the tendency while producing a negative EPA.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Vanderbilt to be favored by -3.5 in a game that should be a slugfest.
Look for Iowa's special teams, defensive red-zone efficiency and top-10 offensive momentum killer rate to lead the Hawkeyes to a cover for Ferentz.
Pick: Iowa +4 or Better
