College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 6 Bets for Texas vs Florida, Iowa State vs Cincinnati, More

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.

My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.

We had a tough Saturday in Week 4 despite some extremely favorable numbers, but that's part of the week-to-week roller coaster of betting college football. Historically, October has treated me very well with these, but nothing is certainly guaranteed in this gig.

I write most of these up after betting them, which I log immediately on the Action App. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 6 spots with a good chunk kicking off in the early window.

• 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
• 2025: 18-14-2 (56.25%)
• Overall: 187-137-3 (57.7%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 6 slate.

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College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Cincinnati -1
	12 p.m.	UAB +7.5
	12 p.m.	Purdue +9.5
	12 p.m.	Ball State +16.5
	3 p.m.	Arizona -19.5
	3:30 p.m.	Florida +7
	7 p.m.	Wyoming +5.5
	7:30 p.m.	Florida State +4.5
	10:30 p.m.	Nevada +14

Cincinnati -1 vs. Iowa State

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN 2

Iowa State had an impressive victory last week at home against Arizona, but I think the Clones are in trouble this week against a scorching-hot Cincinnati offense that ranks in the top 20 nationally, no matter how you slice it.

Plus, if you look at the entire body of work for Iowa State, all of its wins have aged poorly after the fact, with Kansas State, South Dakota, Arkansas State and Iowa all struggling at times.

Its lone road game came against a very bad Arkansas State squad in what played out close to a coin-flip game outside of a few brutal calls that went against the Red Wolves.

Additionally, Iowa State recently lost two All-Big 12 caliber cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper to season-ending knee injuries.

That's extremely problematic this week against Brendan Sorsby and an ascending wide receiver room, especially considering the Clones generate absolutely no pressure and have been extremely reliant on stout coverage on the back end.

In fact, among all power conference teams, only North Carolina and UCLA have generated a lower pressure rate than Iowa State.

While Domonique Orange (who's dealing with a nagging injury) is a future pro in the interior, the Cyclones don't have the horses on the edge to exploit some of the deficiencies Cincy has at tackle to cause problems for Sorsby, who does really struggle under pressure.

It's also worth noting that Cincy runs a very similar defensive scheme to Iowa State under defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt, who spent seven seasons in Ames before taking the DC job under Scott Satterfield in 2024.

They will know exactly how to attack this defensive scheme, which can really confuse opponents who aren't properly prepared. Now, the same can be said for Iowa State, but the Bearcats have much more firepower in my opinion.

Speaking of future NFL players, Cincy should get Dontay Corleone back along its interior of the defensive line. That's an enormous boost for a Bearcat team that's relatively healthy elsewhere.

I do really like the linebacker corps, which is critical against Rocco Becht and company, who love to use their tight ends and throw over the middle of the field.

While the cornerback room for Cincy has been a bit underwhelming, I don't fear the outside receivers for Iowa State too much after the departure of two 1,000-yard receivers to the NFL.

There's also a chance we see some late-down regression work in Cincy's favor. Despite ranking third nationally in early downs EPA, the Bearcats have converted just 38% of their third-down attempts.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has converted at a 50% clip with a much worse early-down offense. They are also a perfect 5-of-5 on fourth downs, while opponents have failed on 8-of-12.

Lastly, Iowa State could have special teams issues with recent injuries to its kicker and kickoff specialist. It didn't cause any harm last week in a blowout but could rear its ugly head in what should be a competitive affair.

That could ultimately swing this Cincy's way, as I do hate trusting Satterfield in close games.

Pick: Cincinnati -1 (Play to -2.5)

UAB +7.5 vs. Army

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

This is a very strong situational spot for the Blazers, who get a bye week prior to facing Army. That extra time off is key to not only prepare for a unique offense, but also to get healthier on defense.

That group is also led by defensive coordinator Steve Russ, who played at Air Force and spent six years coaching the defense in Colorado Springs. He certainly has as much familiarity with the triple option as anybody.

It also doesn't hurt that UAB already faced a service academy earlier this season when it played a fairly competitive game against Navy that honestly could've gone either way without some critical UAB turnovers.

Now, the defense will likely still struggle for long stretches of this game.

It's still not an overly talented group, but it likely just needs to steal a possession or two against an Army offense that's significantly worse than last year after the loss of star quarterback Bryson Daily and a drop-off up front along the offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award in 2024.

The tackle play just isn't at the same caliber as 2024, which is the most underrated position by far for a triple-option offense.

Even if the UAB defense isn't getting many stops, its electric offense can keep up with the Black Knights even without wide receiver Corri Milliner.

Jalen Kitna and company can move the ball against almost any defense, especially this Army stop unit that lost nine of its top 15 defenders in terms of snap counts from last season.

That includes nose tackle Kody Harris-Miller, who hasn't played since Week 1 due to injury. Kitna should have all day in the pocket against a nonexistent Army pass rush that lost 18 of its 25.5 sacks (71%) from 2024.

That spells trouble for the Army pass defense that ranks 127th in Pass Success Rate allowed against a UAB offense that ranks in the top 20.

Lastly, UAB should have a special teams edge in this particular matchup, where the Blazers will have the best unit on the field with their offense.

Pick: UAB +7.5 (Play to +7)

Purdue +9.5 vs. Illinois

12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

This is the most obvious situational spot on the board with the Illini finding themselves in a potential flat spot following two extremely emotional games against ranked opponents in Indiana and USC.

Oh, and did I mention this will be their sixth straight game without a break, and they have Ohio State coming to Champaign next Saturday?

Meanwhile, Purdue will come in as the much fresher team following its bye week, which should prove even more valuable for a team with an entirely new roster and coaching staff. Those two weeks should do wonders from a preparation perspective.

For what it's worth, Illinois found itself in a similar spot last season against Purdue in a game sandwiched between four ranked matchups.

The Illini had to survive a two-point conversion attempt in a 50-49 overtime win against a completely incompetent Boilermakers bunch that finished with one win in 2024. And Illinois played that game at home following a bye week.

This Purdue team is obviously significantly improved under head coach Barry Odom, who can thank quarterback Ryan Browne for playing at an extremely high level over the first month of the season.

The Boilermakers should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense that still has some holes, especially without the services of star cornerback Xavier Scott.

The Illini have been quite fortunate since the start of last season, so maybe we see some of that overdue regression. So far this season, they have gone 5-of-5 on fourth downs with a +5 turnover margin, while Purdue sits at -5.

It's also worth noting that both teams have played fairly difficult schedules and are only separated by 0.1 net yards per play, with the Boilermakers possessing a higher quality drive rate.

Yes, Illinois did look great last week, but it also caught USC in a nightmare travel spot with an 11 a.m. local kick following the latest start time the previous Saturday.

Don't forget this team got completely pantsed the week prior against an Indiana team that easily could have lost at Iowa last week.

I expect this Battle for the Cannon (where the underdog has gone 12-6 ATS since 2005) to remain competitive throughout, so I'll happily take the points in a fantastic spot.

Pick: Purdue +9.5 (Play to +8.5)

Ball State +16.5 vs. Ohio

12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

This is another spot I had circled to back a brand new staff with major roster turnover coming off a bye week.

I expect a fully focused effort from the Cardinals (who have been a bit better than I expected to date) in their conference home opener following an extremely difficult nonconference schedule that included a trio of road games against Auburn, UConn and Purdue.

We didn't get to the window fading Ohio last week, but Bowling Green deserved a better outcome.

The Falcons amassed nearly 300 yards of offense in the first half but found themselves behind the 8-ball due to a tipped pick-six and another red-zone interception.

Then, in the second half, with the game still very much in doubt, quarterback Drew Pyne left with an injury.

Not only was he never 100% following that moment, but he left the field for a drive when his backup lost a fumble, leading to a short-field touchdown, which was the final nail in the coffin.

Ball State runs an option-esque offense with quarterback Kiael Kelly, who converted back to the position after spending time at wide receiver and defensive back last season.

It should have success against a very poor Ohio run defense that's missing a couple of key pieces along its front seven. Ohio has also been extremely fortunate in terms of Finishing Drives and late-down variance swinging its way.

Despite ranking outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed, the Bobcats rank in the top 10 in that department on late downs. That's simply not sustainable.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro will make plenty of plays with his legs to break off big runs and make off-script throws downfield with stud slot wide receiver Chase Hendricks being the primary recipient.

However, the rest of the wide receiver room (which already lost a starter to injury) isn't fully capable of exploiting a weak Ball State secondary. The Cardinals can really focus on taking away Hendricks (much like BG did), which can neuter this Bobcats attack.

Additionally, the strength of this Ball State defense lies up front along a defensive line that should find success generating pressure, which has historically forced Navarro into many mistakes.

Ultimately, possessions in this game may also come at a premium in a battle of two slow-paced, run-heavy teams. That makes covering this large number a much more arduous task for the Bobcats, who also have major issues on special teams.

Pick: Ball State +16.5 (Play to +14.5)

Arizona -19.5 vs. Oklahoma State

3 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT

Oklahoma State is an absolute mess. Its opponent-adjusted metrics on both sides of the ball almost look like a mistake. This is the worst power conference team by a magnificent margin.

How bad is it from a power ratings perspective? As of right now, I'd have lowly Western Michigan favored on a neutral field over the Pokes, who recently got dominated on their home field by Tulsa.

There's nothing to like about this team. The quarterback play is putrid behind an offensive line missing its best player, and the defense can't stop a nosebleed.

So, is this the bottom? Maybe not.

After firing head coach Mike Gundy last week, Oklahoma State fired defensive coordinator Todd Grantham on Sunday.

So, who will take over as the interim in his place? Clint Bowen, whom Gundy brought in as an offensive quality control coach in the offseason after Bowen spent the past four years at the high school level.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a few more players enter the portal.

Oklahoma State has no direction on defense, while the offense operates with tempo with no discernible strengths. That's a recipe for a complete blowout in the desert against what should be an angry Arizona bunch coming off a blowout loss in Ames.

College Football Picks, Predictions: Expert Week 6 Bets for Miami vs Florida State, Texas vs Florida, MoreRead now

The Wildcats got burned by allowing too many explosive passing plays against the Cyclones, who also exploited them over the middle of the field.

Well, that shouldn't be much of an issue against quarterback Zane Flores, who really struggles to throw between the hashes and has completed just three of his 21 (14.3%) deep balls this season.

Meanwhile, Arizona should find success doing whatever it chooses while on offense.

Last week, the wide receivers struggled to get separation against the Iowa State secondary. That won't be an issue this week. And the ground game should really get going on early downs, making life much easier for quarterback Noah Fifita.

Arizona's special teams are a bit of a mess at the moment, but that shouldn't matter in this one. Give me the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way by at least three touchdowns against the corpse of Oklahoma State.

Pick: Arizona -19.5 (Play to -20)

Florida +7 vs. Texas

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

This is a super difficult game to handicap, but I couldn't pass up taking the touchdown in what profiles as a lower-scoring game with two stout defenses facing arguably the two most disappointing offenses so far in 2025.

Also, keep in mind that Florida has played the second-most difficult schedule in the country to date, while Texas' strength of schedule ranks outside the top 140.

I just haven't seen enough from Arch Manning (who went 11-of-25 for 114 yards at home against UTEP) to trust this Texas offense on the road against a dominant Florida defense that should contain the Texas ground game.

Is it possible one or both of these quarterbacks haven't been 100% healthy? Certainly. So, who knows which could come out of the bye week looking better?

However, we've at least seen high-level production against SEC competition in the past from DJ Lagway, who we do know had an injury in the offseason, which prevented him from getting to work with his receivers leading up to the season.

As a result, I believe there's a higher probability that Lagway benefits more from the two weeks leading up to this showdown in the Swamp.

Additionally, it looks as if five-star freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson will make his season debut for the Gators. He could really help unlock the deep passing attack, which has completely disappeared in 2025 after being an overwhelming strength for Lagway in 2024.

In the spring game, against what we now see is a high-caliber defense, Wilson hauled in 10 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. He's the real deal and could help this unit, which now possesses the healthiest group of wide receivers since the spring.

It wouldn't shock me if either one of these offenses just can't do anything on Saturday, but I don't expect this Florida team to quit on Napier, especially in this spot at home against a top-10 opponent.

The defense alone can keep it in this game, and there's now some optimism for offensive upside.

At home in the Swamp in what might be the last hurrah for the 2025 Gators, I had to take the touchdown in a game with a total of 41, where Florida should also hold the special teams edge.

Pick: Florida +7 or Better

Note: I do need +7 here with all of the uncertainty.

Wyoming +5.5 vs. UNLV

7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

I've been itching to fade UNLV again for the past two weeks while the Rebels enjoyed their bye week. No team has a more laughable 4-0 resume than UNLV, which has wins over UCLA, Sam Houston, Idaho State and Miami (OH).

Those four opponents have a combined zero victories against FBS foes.

It's also worth noting that the Rebels were on the verge of getting run off the field in Oxford until Miami (OH) lost starting quarterback Dequan Finn to an injury on a play where he threw a pick-six.

Still, even with a backup quarterback who isn't capable of running the offense Finn does, the RedHawks found themselves in a position to win before fumbling in the red zone in the final minutes of a tie game. It was one of the luckiest wins of the season.

While I don't love this Wyoming team, its offense does have a little more juice this season with quarterback Kaden Anderson.

The Pokes, who have played a significantly more difficult schedule, have also found something over their past two games with freshman running back Samuel Harris, who had 19 carries against Colorado after only 18 combined over the first three games.

He's averaging 6.9 yards per rush and should have a very productive day at the office against a UNLV defense that can't stop the run.

On the season against a clown car schedule, the Rebels defense ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed and sits in the bottom-10 nationally in Rush EPA allowed.

Additionally, UNLV has been extremely fortunate on late downs on both sides of the ball. On third downs alone, the Rebels have converted a ridiculous 52% on offense, while holding opponents to just 21%.

Despite ranking outside the top 100 in early downs EPA, they rank in the top 15 in late down Success Rate. And on offense, they rank second on late downs despite sitting right around the national average on early downs.

They've also enjoyed a +6 turnover margin.

Lastly, Wyoming could benefit from some good old-fashioned fall weather in Laramie against the indoor Rebs. It could be a colder night with some precipitation and wind, which would be much more detrimental to the UNLV offense.

The Cowboys have won eight of those 14 games outright with an average spread of 11.

Pick: Wyoming +5.5 (Play to +4)

Florida State +4.5 vs. Miami

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Is there a chance we are overrating Miami? I do have the Hurricanes power-rated as a top-five team in the country, but they did benefit from facing CJ Carr in his first-ever start (on the road) and a USF team in one of the worst situational spots of the entire season.

Their other FBS win came over a completely lost Florida offense. And they've done all of that work in the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium.

Things might not go as smoothly in their first road game of the season in front of what should be a completely ludicrous crowd in Tallahassee.

I'm confident in the fact that Miami has one of the top trenches in the entire country. It will certainly hold an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the Noles.

However, that's where this unique Gus Malzahn offense could come into play, with Tommy Castellanos' legs being a critical factor for an offense that can use Miami's aggressiveness up front in its favor.

We've also seen Carson Beck struggle much more on the road in his career.

Last season at Georgia, Beck threw for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home, while those splits deteriorated on the road with a 10% drop in completion percentage, a 3:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a sack rate that more than doubled.

Even with Miami power-rated as the fifth-best team in the country, I still project this spread at right around a field goal. Plus, I still don't fully trust Mario Cristobal as a favorite against a competent team, and I do still have some lingering doubts about the kicking situation.

It's time to sell high on Miami and buy the dip on Florida State, which easily took care of business at home against an Alabama team that has looked fantastic since. And if all else fails, trust in Mario to mess it up.

Pick: Florida State +4.5 or Better

Nevada +14 at Fresno State

10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

I believe this is a great opportunity to buy the Wolf Pack, who will head to Fresno for their conference opener following a bye week.

Fresno State also had a bye last week, but I believe Nevada has the coaching edge, so I think it will benefit more from the two weeks off.

These two teams have lived polar opposite lives in the luck department so far in 2025, which may be creating a bit of value in this spot.

Let's start with Fresno State. Following a Week 0 loss at Kansas, the Bulldogs have rattled off four straight wins. The first came at home against the horrific Georgia Southern defense. That was well deserved, as was the victory over FCS Southern.

However, the other two could (should?) have easily gone the other way.

They beat Oregon State by nine (thanks to a late pick-six in the final seconds) in a game the Beavers finished with 210 more yards (528-318) and led going into the fourth quarter.

Fresno pulled off a similar feat on the island in a game it also trailed going into the fourth quarter and lost the yardage battle thanks to four Hawaii turnovers.

Now, let's look at Nevada. After an opening season loss at Penn State, the Wolf Pack beat FCS Sacramento State. They then lost their next two against Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky despite leading going into the fourth quarter and finishing with more yards in both.

Against the Blue Raiders, the Wolf Pack led, 13-0, in the fourth quarter before allowing two late touchdowns sandwiched in between a Nevada interception and two missed field goals. It has been the complete opposite story of Fresno.

While this may look like 4-1 Fresno vs. 1-3 Nevada, it easily could be 2-3 Fresno vs. 3-1 Nevada.

You can also look at each respective quarterback to paint the same picture. EJ Warner has a 5:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite only two big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays, while Chubba Purdy has a 1:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite a marginally better BTT-TWP ratio of 2:7.

This is a big number for Fresno to cover in a matchup of two slow-paced, run-heavy teams.

Nevada has been absolutely dreadful in the red zone, but I expect some natural positive regression in that department and for head coach Jeff Choate to iron out some of those issues during the bye week.

Keep in mind, this is a team that thrived in scoring range last season. In what should be an ugly one late at night, I'll happily take the two touchdowns.

Pick: Nevada +14

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