The Indiana Hoosiers (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) open the new 12-team College Football Playoff with an opening-round matchup in South Bend on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
History will be made for Indiana, as it finds itself in the midst of the greatest season in program history, trumping a 1967 appearance in the Rose Bowl.
Head coach Curt Cignetti made waves at Big Ten Media Days, announcing the arrival of Hoosiers football. Indiana finished with only a single loss on the season, suffering a 38-15 defeat at the hands of Ohio State in Week 14. Cignetti has been a moneymaker for investors since his arrival at the FBS level, covering 24 of his 35 games since the 2022 season.
Notre Dame will make its 3rd appearance in the College Football Playoff after losing both semifinal attempts in 2018 and 2020. The Irish have 11 national titles dating back to 1924 but must win 3 straight to compete for another championship.
The winner of this game will move on to New Orleans, drawing 2nd-seeded SEC champion Georgia.
Notre Dame enters as a -7 favorite with the over/under set at 51.
Let's dive into my Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for the College Football Playoff opener on Friday, Dec. 20.
Indiana Hoosiers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Best Bet
- Indiana vs. Notre Dame Pick: Over 51
My Notre Dame vs. Indiana best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Line
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +210 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -258 |
- Indiana vs Notre Dame Spread: Notre Dame -6.5, Indiana +6.5
- Indiana vs Notre Dame Over/Under: 50.5
- Indiana vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Notre Dame -258, Indiana +210
Indiana vs Notre Dame College Football Playoff Betting Preview
Why Indiana Can Cover: Hoosiers Are For Real
Indiana's offense centers around a three-headed ground attack led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The Ohio transfer didn't accumulate as many yards and touchdowns as he did in the MAC, but he leads a rushing offense that uses a heavy amount of inside zone.
Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton have created plenty of highlight yards this season, racking up a combined 19 explosive runs.
Lawton has been the workhorse the second half of the season, averaging 4.2 yards after first contact on combined attempts against the defenses of Michigan and Ohio State.
Ty Son Lawton : 15 carries for 79 yards & 2 TD's pic.twitter.com/OzISoohmaw
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) November 23, 2024
Cignetti's stingy defenses from James Madison have followed him to Bloomington, ranking as the best in the nation in opponent rush efficiency and Line Yards.
The 3-3-5 personnel can be aggressive with a 39% blitz rate, producing the sixth-best number in Defensive Havoc.
Nearly every analytic against the pass also resides in the top 10, including coverage grading and passing downs efficiency. Although Ohio State put up 38 points against Indiana, the Buckeyes managed just a single explosive drive.
Indiana finished as one of the top special teams units in the country but gave up 193 hidden yards and gave Ohio State an average starting field position at the 45-yard line.
Why Notre Dame Can Cover: Strong Ground Game
Notre Dame has executed at a high level on offense all season, particularly in generating extra yards at the second level. Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard leads the inside zone run concept that ranks third nationally in Rush EPA.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has two dynamic running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, as the pair have combined with Leonard for 36 total rushing touchdowns.
Love has caught fire at the end of the regular season, scoring two touchdowns in three of his final five games. Not only has the sophomore running back created 55 missed tackles, but he has also caught 22 passes out of the backfield.
WHOA!
Jeremiyah Love with a POWERFUL run. pic.twitter.com/tBUcQd6ibC— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 30, 2024
Defensively, the Irish's three-man front has had struggles defending the run, ranking 83rd in opponent rush efficiency. That number drops in money downs with short distances, ranking 115th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
While the defense has been gashed on the ground, the secondary has made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Notre Dame boasts the third-best coverage unit, per PFF, generating the best defensive efficiency against the pass in FBS.
Led by cornerbacks Christian Gray and Leonard Moore, the Irish rank eighth in pass breakups plus interceptions.
Notre Dame vs Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Indiana match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 1 |  |
| Havoc | 15 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 4 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 6 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 49 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 2 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 11 | 101 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (108) | 28.5 (109) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (32) | 57% (39) |
Notre Dame vs Indiana Picks, Best Bets
The key for Indiana to compete in Notre Dame Stadium is to simply remain in standard downs. The Irish defense feasts on opponents in passing downs, ranking top-10 in both efficiency and limiting explosives.
Freeman has created a stop unit that's strong in tackling fundamentals, ranking second in hard stops. However, the Hoosiers will have success with inside zone between the tackles with Lawton and Ellison. Notre Dame has a low 41% Success Rate against opponents running inside zone.
Interior defenders Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills have both been pushed around by opposing offenses this season.
Indiana will look to cash in when entering the extended red zone, ranking as the nation's best team in Finishing Drives with an average of 5.1 points per trip inside the 40-yard line.
Notre Dame will have the chance to answer on offense with the element of the explosive play. The Hoosiers have had a high Success Rate in defending inside the zone, but there's been a dropoff against stiffer competition.
Ohio State's rushing attack was stuffed on just 6-of-28 attempts, while Maryland averaged 6.5 yards per play on the ground against the Hoosiers.
Love and Price should keep the chains moving, as half of Washington's offensive possessions featured two or more first downs. Indiana also finished the regular season 61st in defensive rush explosives allowed.
Both offenses have advantages with the inside zone read concept, signaling that each team should remain in standard downs and create plenty of scoring opportunities.
There aren't many teams that have cashed in in the red zone like Indiana and Notre Dame, both ranking top-10 in red-zone touchdown rate.
Notre Dame may have more reason to avoid the kicking game with a high efficiency of rushing touchdowns. Kicker Mitch Jeter has made only half of his field goals this season, missing all three attempts in the final games against Army and USC.
Look for Freeman to get aggressive in touchdown hunting, calling for a ticket of Notre Dame over 3.5 touchdowns.
Action Network's projection on the total sits at 58, well above the market number as well as the biggest key number in totals of 55.
The over is the play, but there may be reason to be patient with market development. A 30% chance of snow is in the forecast, a factor that can drive the total well into the 40s. With winds projected at a modest six mph, the movement in the totals market won't be justified with two rush-heavy offenses.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Notre Dame to be favored by 8 points, assisted by more than three points of home-field advantage. The Irish should be considered at a touchdown or less, with the Hoosiers having value at any number at 8 or higher.
There may be a reason to look at a prop on the red-hot Love, who has become the primary option for Leonard on any down and distance.
Love to score 2+ touchdowns can be found in the market at +225 — a ticket that could cash through explosives or methodical drives for the Irish.
Pick: Over 51 or Better · Notre Dame Over 3.5 TDs · Jeremiyah Love 2+ TDs (+225)
Indiana vs Notre Dame Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Indiana takes on Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff opener on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Notre Dame vs Indiana Betting Trends
Notre Dame vs Indiana Weather
