The Rice Owls take on the Texas State Bobcats in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, on Friday, Jan. 2. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas State is favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -675. Rice, meanwhile, enters as a +16.5 underdog and is +470 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Rice vs. Texas State prediction and college football picks for Friday, January 2.
Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction, Picks
- Rice vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 36.5 or Better
My Texas State vs. Rice best bet is on the Bobcats' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Rice vs Texas State Odds, Lines, Spread
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -112 | 55.5 -102o / -118u | +575 |
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -108 | 55.5 -102o / -118u | -800 |
- Rice vs Texas State Spread: Texas State -19.5, Rice +19.5
- Rice vs Texas State Over/Under: 55.5 Total Points
- Rice vs Texas State Moneyline: Rice ML +575, Texas State ML -800
Rice vs Texas State NCAAF Preview
Rice Owls
For the second time in four years, Rice managed to secure a spot in a bowl game despite not winning six games (shoutout academics).
Its quest to finish over .500 will extend to a 12th season, though, as a win here puts Rice at 6-7.
The Owls attack this game without starting quarterback Chase Jenkins, who intends to hit the transfer portal and won’t play Friday. Backup quarterback Drew Devillier joins Jenkins, meaning freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. likely gets the start here.
Crayton saw action in two games and took 25 total snaps. 21 of them came against UTSA, where he rushed four times for -3 yards (which included a fumble) and attempted six passes for three yards (which included an interception).
Starting receiver Drayden Dickmann and rotational running back Daelen Alexander (74 carries, fourth-most) are also in the transfer portal. And just for good measure, starting corner Khary Crump was dismissed from the roster in October.
The new offensive system under Scott Abell is fine, but incredibly restrictive if you don’t have the right pieces in place. It was a good call for a program like Rice to take a different and unique approach to try to win games, but the option-based system has yet to take hold in Year 1.
Rice finished the regular season ranked 116th nationally in points per drive, 116th in Success Rate, and 131st in quality drive rate.
The gun option puts defenders in conflict, but it also largely confines the offense to inside the tackle box, with occasional play-action shot plays.
Rice doesn’t have the linemen up front nor the threat in the backfield to capitalize and create chunk plays as you see with Army and Navy – both of whom have been running the option (though different) for decades.
The defensive side isn’t much better for Rice.
It ranks 115th nationally in points per drive allowed and has, astonishingly, allowed a score (be it field goal or touchdown) on every single opposing drive this season. (Note: a bit of that is bad luck, considering its opponents never missed a field goal or fumbled the football.)
Rice is large and by far the worst team in the bowl field. The last time they made a bowl with fewer than six wins, the Owls surrendered 300 rushing yards to Southern Miss’ Frank Gore Jr., who played wildcat quarterback the entire game.
Texas State Bobcats
It’s hard to follow up consecutive eight-win seasons for a newer FBS program like Texas State.
The athletic department has the resources to succeed (take a look at their stadium and added facilities), and it bought in with the hire of head coach G.J. Kinne.
A midseason five-game skid brought Texas State down a win from last season, but its on-field prowess isn’t much worse than 2024.
Four of those five losses came by a touchdown or less, and two in overtime. It was a wild October for Texas State, and one in which the Bobcats drew the short stick.
But it wasn’t just bad luck that caused that skid — Texas State’s defense took a significant step backward in 2025, finishing 109th nationally in points per drive allowed and 132nd in points per quality drive allowed.
As a result, coordinator Dexter McCoil was relieved of his duties.
Kinne demands a level of buy-in from his roster. Just two players are expected to transfer, neither of whom started a game beyond Week 6.
There are lots of young players on the roster, including redshirt freshman quarterback Brad Jackson, and this is a team bought back in for 2026 (but we’ll get to that this summer).
Despite losing offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich to Texas Tech, the offense in San Marcos is uniquely Kinne’s, and the Bobcats didn’t miss a step. They finished 13th nationally in points per drive, 25th in Success Rate, and 34th in quality drive rate. The spread-n-shred is still spreading and shredding.
Running back Lincoln Pare surpassed 1,000 yards on the season, Jackson added more than 800, and running back Greg Burrell rushed for nearly 600 himself.
First-team All-Sun Belt receiver Beau Sparks surpassed 1,000 yards, Chris Dawn Jr. could pass 1,000 with 63 yards in this bowl game, and Pare collected 277 yards through the air.
It’s an extremely multiple offense that’s difficult to defend without a bevvy of talented defenders.
Though the defense's overall performance wasn’t great, Texas State does have some disruptors up front.
Linebacker Treylin Payne earned second-team All-Sun Belt honors, while edge rusher Kalil Alexander — the only returning starter in the front seven — logged 25 run stops and five sacks. The unit sits in the top 20 nationally in both stuff rate and line yards.
The weakness comes against the pass, where Texas State finished 70th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 113th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Red-zone defense was also an issue; opponents scored 4.35 points per quality possession, fifth-worst nationally.
Rice vs Texas State NCAAF Pick to Bet
It’s the second Rice vs. Texas State bowl matchup in the Lone Star State in three seasons.
Last time (2023), the Bobcats throttled the Owls, 45-21, in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas.
If you got in early with Texas State, you’re feeling pretty good about your ticket(s) in hand. The Bobcats opened as 6.5-point favorites, and that quickly ballooned to 10.5 before the opt-out of Jenkins pushed this above two touchdowns – a number that’s likely not coming back down.
Teams that took advantage of Texas State’s defense were able to throw the ball, far from Rice’s focus or forte. Four of Crayton’s seven passing attempts on the season targeted receivers behind the line of scrimmage, and another fifth came under 10 yards.
This game is simply a talent mismatch.
Texas State averages over 480 yards per game (fourth-most), and losses came by opponents scoring 40-plus — Texas State still gained over 500 yards in each of the one-score losses this year.
Rice doesn’t have enough quality defenders to keep pace with Sparks, Dawn, and the other weapons on offense. Its top-graded cornerback, per PFF, is far below replacement level with a 58.1 grade on the season (behind seven graded safeties).
Against better offenses like UTSA, USF, and North Texas, Rice could not compete. It allowed 50-plus to all three of those teams. So long as you can throw the ball, you can score on Rice.
Kinne isn’t afraid to flex his muscles when he is able. Against Rice two bowls ago, Kinne kept his starters in up 17 late in the fourth quarter.
I don’t expect a competitive game here, but the juice has been squeezed out of the point spread.
Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 36.5 or Better
