The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2026 Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte on Friday, Jan. 2. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Mississippi State is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. Wake Forest, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +135 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football picks for Friday, January 2.
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks
- Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
My Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest best bet is on the Demon Deacons to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Odds, Line, Spread
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
- Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Spread: Mississippi State -2.5, Wake Forest +2.5
- Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Over/Under: 53.5
- Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Moneyline: Wake Forest ML +122, Mississippi State ML -144
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State College Football Betting Preview
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview
What a season for Wake Forest!
The Demon Deacons made a fundamental shift, letting go of head coach Dave Clawson after 11 seasons. With Clawson went the slow mesh offense, and hiring Jake Dickert launched Wake into uncertainty.
Expectations were incredibly low, as Wake was picked near the bottom of the ACC in every respected preseason ranking.
So, Dickert led the Deacs to an 8-4 record and Duke's Mayo Bowl berth against Mississippi State.
Transfer quarterback Robby Ashford found a resurgence in his career, throwing for nearly 2,200 yards and rushing for 570 more. Running back Demond Claiborne rushed for over 900 yards in his curtain-call season, but he's out of this game – a huge loss for the Deacs.
Unfortunately for the Deacs, red-zone miscues cost Wake plenty of points this season, and it finished 91st in Points Per Drive and 114th in Points Per Quality Drive.
The story of the season really came via the defense. Wake didn't just field a stout defense, its stop unit dominated under coordinator Scottie Hazelton.
Wake fielded a top-12 defense in Success Rate (35.4%), Passing Success Rate (33%) and Stuff Rate (24.1%).
Safety Nick Andersen earned first-team All-ACC honors, and cornerback Karon Prunty was named to the second team.
Especially later in the season, Wake embraced its comfort in rock fights, earning wins over SMU (13-12), Virginia (16-9) and Kennesaw State (10-9).
Wake Forest was also sturdy against the run. It finished 23rd in EPA Per Rush allowed and 43rd in Rushing Success Rate (39.5%), thanks to its strong defensive front usually winning the line of scrimmage battle.
But things could also go sideways. Wake was blasted by Florida State, 42-7, and allowed 49 to Duke in the regular-season finale.
It's a disruptive unit that can be taken advantage of by more talented offenses. In its eight wins, Wake allowed 12.9 points per game; in losses, that jumped to 38.8. Big plays were a concern in those losses.
Not exactly breaking news to say, "when a team allows more points, it tends to lose more," but the stark discrepancy between defensive fortitude in wins versus losses is worth noting.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Despite a 5-7 record, Mississippi State will get another chance to close its season on a high note. The Bulldogs find themselves in the Duke's Mayo Bowl after both Iowa State and Kansas State opted out of playing a postseason game.
State finished just 1-7 in SEC play this season, but it did show flashes of competence. It gave both Texas and Tennessee (combined 18-5) all they could handle, losing to both in overtime, and beat Arizona State early in the season.
This was by no means a great football team, but it's far from incompetent despite that 1-7 conference record.
Youngster Kamario Taylor may suit up as the starting quarterback again, though Blake Shapen will be playing his last snaps of college football here and may see action.
Taylor was flawed but did flash big-play potential against Ole Miss, rushing for 173 yards and two long touchdowns. Beyond QB, Mississippi State should be relatively intact here.
It's an offense that thrives on the ground under Taylor but prefers the air under Shapen.
Running back Fluff Bothwell showed more life against Ole Miss, though better defenses completely bottled the stocky sophomore up. State's 48.9% Rushing Success Rate ranks 28th in the country, leading to 4.03 Points Per Quality Drive (24th).
The trouble with this offense is that it's a tough one to start. Though Mississippi State capitalized on its quality drives, those quality drives were tough to come by (39.1% ranks 84th nationally).
Against competent offenses, Mississippi State's defense simply didn't hold up. It allowed 40-plus points four times and 35-plus six times.
Teams could counter with the run effectively. Mississippi State allowed a 45% Rushing Success Rate (118th) and 2.41 Points Per Drive (84th). Offenses the Bulldogs managed to hold under 30 include Florida (110th in Points Per Drive), Northern Illinois (115th) and Arizona State 86th).
The Bulldogs don't tackle overly well, and their defensive front wasn't up to SEC standard, logging a sack on just 5.3% of opponent dropbacks (92nd).
This season, Mississippi State ran 73 plays per game (11th-most) — a result both of head coach Jeff Lebby's use of tempo (22.2 seconds per play is sixth-shortest) and the defense's tendency to allow quick scores.
It's an offense that can be effective moving quickly but also one that can be frustratingly inefficient.
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State NCAAF Pick to Make
Mississippi State has been the pick in the lead-up to this bowl game. It opened a -2.5 favorite and crossed the critical -3 threshold but halted at -3.5.
Dickert is in pursuit of his first bowl win as a head coach (0-2 previously at Washington State). He's also looking to deliver just the fourth nine-win season in Wake Forest's 118-year football history (and third coach to do so).
With a group graduating so many core players — Ashford is out of eligibility, while Claiborne, Andersen and tackle Fa’alili Fa’amoe are all likely NFL-bound — I'd expect a strong effort from this team.
Wake counters well defensively what Mississippi State wants to do offensively.
Whether Shapen or Taylor goes first here, State is going to lean into its run game. Wake can control the line of scrimmage against what's been a subpar offensive front, and the second level is one of the best in the ACC.
Hazelton is going to force the ball to the air, where Mississippi State ranks 93rd in Passing Success Rate. Taylor completes less than 55% of his passes, while Shapen is around 64%.
Senior Brenen Thompson (948 yards) is the biggest threat in the receiving game, while Anthony Evans III (741 yards) presents a nice second option. However, there's not much behind those two.
Lebby won't reveal who the defensive play-caller will be for this bowl game after recently hiring Zach Arnett back to the staff. My guess is that it'll be an assistant who has been on the staff; otherwise, he would likely say Arnett will be in the booth.
Wake Forest has more to play for here. There's a mismatch between Wake's defensive front and State's offensive front, which has been a death sentence for those in the deficit.
If there's overwhelming support on State, we'd have seen the -3 line disappear. But -3 is available, hinting at respectable action on Wake Forest.
This is a team that has overachieved this year, and I'm siding with that upstart roster over the sub-.500 fifth-choice team for this bowl spot.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Betting Trends to Know
