Alabama vs. Tennessee Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -345 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
Why You Should Bet Tennessee
Alabama just doesn’t look that good.
The Tide's 24-21 win over Arkansas last week looked ugly. Their 26-20 win over Texas A&M looked ugly. Their 17-3 win over South Florida looked ugly. Their loss to Texas looked ugly.
It’s hard to lay a big number with the Crimson Tide. They’re only 3-3 ATS as a favorite since obliterating Middle Tennessee in the opener.
Projections agree with me. Our Action Analytics team projects the Tide as under-a-touchdown favorites. ESPN’s SP+ model projects the Tide as merely five-point favorites. This is too many points.
I admit I’m no fan of Joe Milton III’s Volunteers, but they have some key schematic advantages that should keep them in this game for 60 minutes.
After Mike lays out his lame-duck case, I’ll counter with those schematic advantages.
Why You Should Bet Alabama
This matchup comes down to Alabama's defense against the Tennessee offense, and the Crimson Tide have a massive advantage.
People still remember the exciting and high-scoring defense we saw from the Vols last season. The 2022 team with Hendon Hooker and two NFL wide receivers averaged 46.1 points per game. Well, this year’s team is averaging just 33.5 points per game, and the unit doesn't have the explosiveness we saw last year.
The issue is Milton. Go ahead and mark your calendar for next April, as NFL scouts who watch highlight tapes on YouTube and don’t actually watch college football will act like he has potential because he has a strong arm.
Milton is terrible. He's completing just 61.5% of his passes and has 10 touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. Even worse, he has just seven Big Time Throws and seven Turnover Worthy Plays.
Let me tell you all about Milton’s rocket arm. He averages 6.9 yards per attempt, which ranks 13th in the SEC. His average depth of target of 10.2 yards is tied for fifth in the SEC. He's completing just 22.9% of his deep passes with a passer grade of 56.4, both of which rank 25th in the SEC.
He's the worst starting quarterback in the entire conference throwing the ball down the field. But thank god his arm is so strong.
If you want a true deep-threat passer, take a look at Jalen Milroe. Ever since getting benched against South Florida, Milroe is completing 67% of his passes with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
He's fourth in the country in average depth of target (14.5) and his 16 Big Time Throws are tied for seventh in the nation. Milroe ranks second in the SEC with 10.7 yards per attempt.
Let’s be clear, Milroe is very clearly the best quarterback in this game, no matter what stat you want to use. He also adds in a dangerous rushing ability, averaging 23 yards per game on the ground with five rushing scores and 13 rushes of 10 yards or more.
When Alabama needs to keep the chains moving, it can count on Milroe’s legs. When the Tide need a big play down the field, they can count on Milroe’s arm.
Tennessee can’t count on its quarterback for either. And that's going to be a big problem against this Alabama defense.
Vols Refutation
McGrath: Yes, Milroe is lighting up the world with his deep passing ability.
But he’s running right into Tennessee’s strength.
The Vols’ defense is underrated. It's 17th in EPA per Play Allowed and fourth in yards per play allowed.
More importantly, the Vols are third in PFF’s Coverage grades and top-40 in Pass Explosiveness Allowed.
Tennessee can limit Milroe’s deep passing game, and things could fall apart afterwards.
Because when it comes to methodically moving the rock, the Tide aren’t that special. They’re 69th in Success Rate and 87th in Standard Downs PPA per Play. They’re sub-60th in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush, averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC.
If Alabama can’t sling it willy-nilly all over the field, Nick Saban’s offense stalls.
Take a look at last week against Arkansas. Outside of two explosive passing plays to Kobe Prentice (79 yards) and Jermaine Burton (44 yards), Milroe went 8-for-19 passing for 115 yards.
I think that happens here.
Conversely, Alabama’s rush defense could be in trouble on Saturday.
Milton hasn’t been able to throw the ball effectively, but behind an offensive line that ranks 30th in Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate, Jaylen Wright has been running willy-nilly through the second and third levels for 7.1 YPC. He’s forced 23 missed tackles and has 26 10-plus yard rushes.
Behind him, the Vols are averaging over 230 rush YPG at nearly six YPC.
The Crimson Tide rank 107th nationally in Rush Explosiveness Allowed. They allowed four explosive rushes (EPA over 1.8) to Arkansas, seven to Mississippi State and three to Texas. They’ve been getting gashed on the ground.
The Tide will struggle to stop Wright. That should open up some opportunities for Milton to build some early-down success.
This is a solid matchup for Tennessee on both sides of the ball.
Tide Refutation
Ianniello: You want to talk about running into a team’s strength?
As I mentioned above, Milton stinks. He does not scare me at all.
On top of that, his top receiver Bru McCoy is out for the season with a fractured ankle. Milton had his worst game of the season last week without McCoy.
Tennessee will be forced to rely on the run, as it has all season. The Vols rank 35th in the country in rushing rate, and yes, they've had a lot of success running the ball.
But let’s look at that 5-1 record for the Vols. In its five wins, Tennessee averaged 257.6 rushing yards per game and had a total of 13 rushing scores. In their one loss, the Vols had just 100 yards on the ground and got blown out by Florida.
This Alabama defense is still elite. It's third in the nation in Success Rate and ranks top-10 against the run. The Tide are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and have only allowed four rushing touchdowns all season.
Opponents haven't been able to sustain drives and consistently move the ball on Alabama. The Tide are top-10 in Success Rate against both the run and the pass and rank fifth in the country in tackling. The only way to have any success on them is with big plays, something Tennessee ranks 107th in.
If Tennessee’s only way to move the ball is running into the teeth of this Alabama defense — a unit that has allowed more than 155 rushing yards just once all season — it's going to be a long day.
Vols Rebuttal
McGrath: Sure, it might be a long day for Tennessee.
That doesn’t mean it won’t be a long day for Alabama.
As mentioned, this is a good matchup for the Tennessee defense, which has been elite this season, ranking sixth in Success Rate Allowed. The Vols also allow only 3.0 YPC, holding opposing passing attacks to under 200 YPG and a touchdown per game.
We should lean Under here. This could be a low-scoring grinder.
That type of game script heavily favors the big ‘dog.
Tennessee will rely on the rush, as it always does. I suspect it'll succeed more than you do. But even if they don’t, the Vols will drain the clock, especially with the new clock rules.
The clock will move quickly, and neither team will maintain consistent drives. The Vols rank fourth nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate Allowed, battling an Alabama offense that’s 63rd in that stat on offense.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this game finished 21-17. With how the Tennessee defense is playing and how sluggish Alabama looks, Tennessee only needs to break a few big runs to stay inside the number.
And, you know, ugly football games often come down to who wins in the trenches. Which team gets the better push? Who generates more Havoc? Who prevents Havoc better? Which team looks less ugly?
Here are Tennessee and Alabama’s relevant offensive and defensive line statistical rankings (nationally):
| Team | O. Line Yards | D. Line Yards | O. Stuff Rate | Havoc Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 30th | 7th | 14th | 34th |
| Alabama | 44th | 55th | 39th | 83rd |
Tide Rebuttal
Ianniello: Tennessee’s defense has been great up front. It's taken a big step forward on that side of the ball for sure.
But Alabama has one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Vols still aren’t quite on the Tide's level.
Defensively, the Crimson Tide are dominant at all three levels. Linebacker Dallas Turner is a menace off the edge. He's racked up 35 total pressures this season and seven sacks. He and Chris Braswell will live in a Tennessee backfield that ranks 93rd in passing blocking.
In the middle of the field, Deontae Lawson and Trezmen Marshall are tackling machines and rarely miss. Lawson is their best run defender and the key to stopping this Vols rush attack.
On the back end, the Crimson Tide have one of the most talented secondaries in the country.
Is true freshman Caleb Downs already the best defensive player in college football? This kid is unbelievable. He's fourth in the SEC in tackles, leading all defensive backs. He has two interceptions as well.
Downs might be the best defensive player in the country, and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry might be the first defensive player taken in the NFL draft. He's allowed just 11 catches all season.
McKinstry and Terrion Arnold are lockdown corners that have the Crimson Tide ranked fourth in the country in coverage grade.
This unit is going to overwhelm the Volunteers all day, and the offense just doesn’t have the answers this season.
McGrath: Bet Tennessee +8.5
Alabama is 6-1, but this is not your daddy’s Crimson Tide.
I have been very underwhelmed by them week in and week out. They look sluggish on offense, especially in Standard Downs and sustaining Quality Drives.
I simply don’t expect this Alabama team to cover a moderate-sized spread against an elite SEC defense.
Conversely, the Vols only need to score a few times to keep this game within the number for 60 minutes. Wright will break a few runs and the Vols will put up two or three touchdowns in a one-score loss.
That’s fine with me. The ticket cashes all the same.
Ianniello: Bet Alabama -8.5
Tennessee has had a nice easy schedule to start the season. It's played just one road game all season, and it was a double-digit loss at Florida.
As we saw in that game, if the Vols get down early and need to rely more on Milton throwing the ball, things will get ugly.
Alabama has the better quarterback, the better defense, obviously a much better coach, home-field advantage and is out for revenge.
That gives the Tide enough advantages to cover this spread and win by double digits.
Get ready to light up a cigar when Alabama covers this spread. Roll Tide.
