Clemson Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats Odds
| Clemson Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Kentucky Wildcats Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
The Gator Bowl takes place in Jacksonville, Florida, where the Clemson Tigers take on the Kentucky Wildcats.
Clemson had a wonderful end to its season by winning its final four games. This team will be looking a little different, though, as it will be missing a few key players who entered the transfer portal. It’ll also be the first time since 2008 that the Tigers will be appearing in a Gator Bowl.
Prior to winning its final game of the season, Kentucky had a horrid end of the season. The Wildcats lost seven of their final eight games after starting 5-0.
They also lost some players to the portal, but none played a major role on the team.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's take a look.
Clemson Tigers
Cade Klubnik led the charge for the Tigers this season and did OK for the most part. He completed 63% of his passes, but Clemson was notorious for having an unexplosive passing attack. It’s near the bottom of the FBS in terms of explosiveness, while the Tigers also ranked 72nd in Success Rate.
Clemson’s receiving corps took a big hit this month. Beaux Collins entered the portal and committed to Notre Dame after leading the team in yards per catch while finishing second in total yards and third in touchdowns.
Without Collins, all eyes will be on Tyler Brown and Jake Briningstool. Both were pretty efficient, but if those two are your top options, there’s no wonder the passing game suffered.
Luckily, the Tigers didn’t suffer any hits to their running back room. Phil Mafah and Will Shipley were huge parts of this team, both averaging five yards per carry.
The rush attack was one of the more efficient parts of their game, as it ranked 34th in Success Rate and 51st in PPA.
This team shined on defense, playing in the backfield often while ranking eighth in Havoc.
Clemson was elite at defending both the run and the pass. Against the pass, it ranked fourth in Success Rate and third in PPA.
The only problem now is that the Tigers have taken hits to their defensive backfield. Nate Wiggins, Andrew Mukuba and Toriano Pride Jr. hit the portal, with Wiggins and Mukuba playing a huge role in their defense.
Another hole is created by both Ruke Orhorhoro and Jeremiah Trotter Jr., who have opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They were cogs in this lineup and helped Clemson form one of the best run defenses in the nation.
To make up for its losses in the secondary, the run defense needs to step up even more. The Tigers ranked seventh in Rushing Success Rate Allowed but were capable of allowing explosive plays.
Kentucky Wildcats
All across the board, the Wildcats offense continued to struggle as the season wore on.
In the final game of his college career, Devin Leary faces his toughest task yet. He had a fine season, but it got worse as Kentucky kept losing. He completed just 56% of his passes for over 2,400 yards, and the passing attack suffered.
UK did have pretty explosive weapons through the air like Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson. However, the Cats weren't very efficient through the air, ranking 98th in Success Rate and 79th in PPA.
While I personally love running back Ray Davis and what he brings, he was used far too much. His season was incredibly impressive, averaging 5.7 yards per carry while running for over 1,100 yards, but how much is too much? He’ll be draft-bound after this game, and I expect him to get the bulk of the carries once again.
Because of his over-usage, Kentucky was never really established a run game that was strong in all areas. Yes, Davis was one of the more explosive backs in the country, but the team's Success Rate on the ground ranked 82nd nationally.
Even though the numbers don’t exactly favor the Wildcats, I still like their defense. They come in at 120th in Success Rate against the pass and 72nd in PPA.
Stopping the run is where they excelled, though, ranking 47th and allowing the 25th-fewest rushing yards per game.
Maxwell Hairston was tied for third in interceptions in the FBS, which is very impressive all things considered. He was one of the few bright spots in the defensive back room.
Linebackers D’Eryk Jackson and Trevin Wallace, along with defensive lineman Deone Walker, are the stars of the show. Jackson leads the team in total tackles, whereas Wallace ranks second in tackles for loss.
Walker, meanwhile, leads the team in TFLs and sacks. Those three, along with J.J. Weaver, are critical parts of this run defense, and they’re all playing in this one.
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Clemson vs Kentucky
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Clemson and Kentucky match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 34 |  |
| Pass Success | 48 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 85 | |
Kentucky Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 106 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 8 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 4 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 82 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (43) | 30.2 (124) |
| Rush Rate | 52.8% (73) | 47.7% (106) |
Clemson vs Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
Had the Tigers played anyone else, it may have been a different story due to the transfers, but Kentucky hasn’t proven enough to validate taking the points.
Even though both teams have essentially had a month off, Clemson has been the better team. It won its last four games and is coming in with some confidence.
A shorthanded Tigers team is still better than Kentucky at full strength, and that’s the exact situation we have here.
I expect Davis to have a big presence, and I expect the Wildcats' run defense to do its best to stop Mafah and Shipley. In the end, though, I don’t foresee it being enough.
Clemson’s execution is so much better, and even though it’s missing players on defense, the structure is still there. With how ineffective Kentucky was to end the season, I don’t see the Cats doing much in this bowl game.
Pick: Clemson -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
