Late in the season, I like to lean on the lessons I’ve learned through the season.
That means counting on shootouts in the AAC and remaining seated on the John Mateer Express.
What may shock some readers is that I have more than a few nice things to say about my old pal Trent Dilfer. No, really!
Here’s my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 12.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 12
- North Texas vs UTSA Over 72.5
- UAB vs Memphis Over 62.5
- Washington State -10.5
Parlay Odds: +595 (bet365)
North Texas vs UTSA Pick
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Last week, the North Texas over-train derailed in Denton. The Mean Green’s 14-3 loss to Army was such a statistical outlier that the game came in 50 points below the closing total.
A big reason for this was Army’s clock-kicking drives. The Cadets went on a 13-play, 94-yard drive in the third quarter that stretched 13 minutes and 54 seconds. All told, North Texas had just six drives the entire game. Four of those drives ended in heartache for the high-scoring home team. North Texas settled for a red zone field goal, turned it over on downs at the Army two-yard line, and threw not two interceptions in the endzone.
But as I said at the top, it was an outlier. North Texas remains the over team this year.
Mean Green games have gone over in seven of eight games this year (excluding non-FBS matches). Those seven overs have cruised past the total by an average of 16.7 points per game.
You don’t have to dig deep to understand why this happens. The North Texas offense is fierce (17th nationally in PPG, third in total offense), and it remains feeble on defense (119th in PPG allowed, 120th in total defense). They also push the tempo with a snap every 21.6 seconds (third) when they have the football.
Now, they travel down I-35 to take on UTSA, which has found its offensive groove.
Playing at a similar tempo (22.9 seconds between snaps, ninth), the Roadrunners have come alive behind inspired play from quarterback Owen McCown.
In the last month, McCown’s average performance has been anything but. Across four games, he’s averaging 348 total yards with 13 total touchdowns against two interceptions. The Roadrunners are scoring north of 42 points per game in that stretch, and they just upset Memphis in a shootout, keeping their bowl prospects alive late in the season. They’re also coming off of a bye, which should mitigate any letdown from the Memphis win.
My projections call for this total to land in the 77-point neighborhood, meaning the Army-North Texas scoring debacle has deflated it by about five full points. I would also advocate for an alternate over 80 if you can get it at any number better than +200.
Leg 1: Over 72.5
UAB vs Memphis Pick
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
Teams change throughout the season.
Injuries, strategy shifts, and experience gained from previous games all contribute to this phenomenon. Casual bettors generally focus on top teams improving throughout the season, but this also applies to teams with lousy win-loss records.
UAB has gone from an absolute trainwreck to a feisty “half-team” in the past few weeks. You could make a compelling argument that UAB is a North Texas clone when you examine its profitability as an over-team. Blazer overs have cashed in six of their last seven games. Dating back to mid-September, UAB scored or allowed 35 points in all but one game.
A reason for their offensive renaissance has been the change at quarterback. Jacob Zeno, who I’ve called the Checkdown Merchant in previous columns, is out, and Jalen Kitna is in.
The most significant difference is that the offensive staff allows Kitna to push the ball downfield. And he’s taking them up on these opportunities with enthusiasm. In his starts, Kitna has been bombing away while attempting 42 passes per game.
The passing strategy has noticeably evolved as well. Kitna is still taking those easy, underneath throws when defenses drop back into deep zones, but he has a healthy YPA and aDOT. In Kitna’s last two games, his aDOT was north of nine yards. Given that Zeno ranked dead last in that stat among qualified Group of 5 quarterbacks over the past year and a half, it’s easy to spot the stylistic difference.
What hasn’t materially changed has been the UAB defense, which is still horrific. The Blazers still get pushed around in the box, allowing anyone and everyone to run on them — the Blazers rank in the bottom ten nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Mario Anderson will have a field day against the front seven (123rd in Rush Success Rate allowed). And when teams can run against UAB, their drives are consistently effective. UAB ranks 114th in Quality Drives surrendered. Offensively, Memphis ranks 28th in that department and features an experienced quarterback in Seth Henigan and a decent offensive line.
I foresee 40-plus points for the Tigers at home.
One final nugget on this over. Memphis’ AAC games have averaged 68 total points per contest. And that’s considering a stinker from USF in Bryce Archie’s first start, where Memphis won 21-3. The other five games have averaged 77 points per game.
Leg 2: Over 62.5
Washington State vs New Mexico Pick
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
If you want to understand this play, kids, we’ll need to jump into the Wayback machine.
During the BCS days, a computer formula determined who played in the National Title Game and New Year’s Six Bowl games. You could juke the computer component in your favor if you ran up scores. Those outcomes also swayed pollsters, as their votes were also factored in. The result was some extremely lopsided games late in the year where coaches would show no mercy to their opponents.
Without a conference championship game in December, Wazzu will need to deploy this ancient strategy and go for style points against New Mexico.
ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Wazzu a 13% shot to make the College Football Playoff if it wins out. You can find Wazzu anywhere between 15-to-1 and 50-to-1 in the futures market.
So that means the Cougars need two things.
First, they need to beat the stuffing out of their remaining schedule.
Second, they need chaos, mainly Army upsetting Notre Dame and following up on that win with a loss in the AAC Title Game.
In the “what they can control” department, the Cougs must run it up on New Mexico.
My theme this week has been to get into bed with awful defenses, and New Mexico is dreadful on that side of the ball. The Lobos are easily a bottom-five run defense, and they’ve made lousy offenses look incredible as of late. For perspective, they allowed 49 points and 604 yards of offense to Wyoming at home. That was just the second time the Pokes had scored seven touchdowns in a regular season game in the past five seasons.
And New Mexico hasn’t even had to deal with an elite dual-threat quarterback yet. Their edge rushers and linebackers should be shaking in their cleats with John Mateer behind center. Not only is he a dangerous rushing threat, but he’s become lethal in the short to intermediate passing games. For example, in the 10-19-yard window, Mateer has an 83.9 PFF Passing grade. Route concepts like slants, outs, and hitches all fall in that window, and New Mexico cannot stop them — the Lobos rank in the bottom 15 at defending all three routes this season.
So if Wazzu threatens a 50-burger, can it get enough stops?
I respect Bronco Mendenhall and Devon Dampier. The pairing has breathed life into the New Mexico offense, and the future is bright in Albuquerque.
But the lights have been flickering a bit in the past month. Colorado State held New Mexico to just six points. San Diego State also reined them in, limiting their explosive attack to just 21 points.
How did they do it? Third down defense.
New Mexico still got their yards against Colorado State (453) and San Diego State (475), but it was below average on third downs (10-for-26, 38%). That’s dead on Wazzu’s 3rd Down defense number, and the Cougars have been even better in the red zone, ranking 40th nationally in red-zone scoring percentage allowed.
In a potential shootout, a few punts and a bend-don't-break approach inside their own 20 should limit New Mexico to 31 points. If that comes to pass, I feel comfortable laying up to 14 points in this spot.
Leg 3: Washington State -10.5
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