Florida State Seminoles vs Pitt Panthers Picks, Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-20.5 -115 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -1600 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+20.5 -105 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +900 |
We have ourselves an ACC matchup where the Florida State Seminoles face off against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Let's preview this matchup on Saturday afternoon with our Florida State vs Pitt pick and updated odds for Saturday.
The Seminoles are still rolling through 2023. Undefeated through eight games, they’re a favorite as we inch closer to the College Football Playoff. They recently handled Wake Forest last week in Winston-Salem, 41-16, and will look to continue their dominance today.
The Panthers are having a rough year, but can you blame them? Pittsburgh's schedule has been rough, and this team is currently going through the gauntlet. Last week, the Panthers fell hard to 14th-ranked Notre Dame, 58-7, and now face fourth-ranked Florida State.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's find a Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 4.
Florida State Seminoles
Jordan Travis has played like a Heisman candidate all season, and it’s no surprise as to why. Combined with his precise accuracy and ability to run when needed, Travis has helped the Seminoles to an undefeated record so far.
Travis has also helped this team achieve an 11th-ranked passing Success Rate along with placing 16th in PPA.
The weapons he has prevail most of the time. Receiver Keon Coleman gets a lot of volume and is Travis’ favorite target, averaging 14 yards per catch with nine trips to the end zone.
Something to look out for is Johnny Wilson’s availability. Wilson went down two weeks ago against Duke and missed last week’s game. According to coach Mike Norvell, it seems like he’s progressing.
The run game mostly consists of explosive plays — it ranks 24th in explosiveness, but only 85th in Success Rate.
Running back Trey Benson gets the majority of the carries and averages 6.4 yards per carry. He’s a prime red-zone target, as he’s found the end zone seven times as well. Travis is also a major threat in the red zone with six rushing touchdowns.
This defense is really solid. FSU does a better job at stopping the pass than the run, but in most cases, the full squad is stout. They have a tendency to give up a big play, but are 23rd in Havoc Allowed.
Defending the run has been OK for the most part. Linebacker Kalen DeLoach is a crucial part to this defense, leading not only in tackles, but tied for the lead tackles-for-loss. Lineman Patrick Payton is also a brick wall sharing the TFL lead with DeLoach.
The pass rush is more of FSU’s bread and butter. It’s ranked ninth in Success Rate and seventh in PPA. Jared Verse is a monster leading with 4.5 sacks, followed by DeLoach, Payton and lineman Joshua Farmer.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Despite the stinker put up last week, it looks like Christian Veilleux is still the guy.
The redshirt sophomore still needs to grow. It’s definitely been a tough year, but coach Pat Narduzzi instilled the faith in him. Veilleux can help drive an explosive play or two, but the Success Rate is so poor. We’re talking 129th-ranked type of poor.
His weapons are pretty solid. Tight end Gavin Bartholomew leads the team in averaging 18 yards per catch, while wide receivers Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means generate the most volume through the air.
There’s not much to write home about on the ground either. There’s an inability to drive explosive plays, and it’s ranked 75th in Success Rate and 117th in PPA.
Both C’Bo Flemister and Rodney Hammond Jr. have split the carries, but neither of them can create separation. Each average 4 YPC, with a few trips to the end zone. Aside from them, there hasn’t been much else from the running back room.
I will say that this defensive core is pretty solid for a 2-6 team. Pitt excels in Havoc allowed, ranking 48th in that and in points per opportunity. The problem for the Panthers is that last week’s stinker against Notre Dame really brought up their points per game allowed up by a large margin.
Notre Dame is among the elite, so I won’t fault them. The defensive back room is a sneaky good bunch where Donovan McMillon and Javon McIntyre lead the team in tackles and M.J. Devonshire leads in interceptions.
Pitt has had a truly rough schedule, so opposing quarterbacks have managed to eat well against them. Its Success Rate against the pass is ranked 70th, but 38th in PPA.
Stopping the run is where the Panthers succeed the most. They’re ranked 24th in run defense Success Rate and 26th in PPA with both linebacker Solomon DeShields and lineman Dayon Hayes leading the team in TFL.
Florida State vs Pitt
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Pitt match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 63 | |
Pitt Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 133 | 22 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 21 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 122 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (74) | 28.2 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 49.6% (84) | 50.4% (95) |
Florida State vs Pitt
Betting Pick & Prediction
Initially, I thought Pitt would have a chance at keeping this close, but I’m starting to change my mind. I love the Panthers defense, but after seeing how they folded against Notre Dame and how they fell to UNC earlier this year, I’m having second thoughts.
Florida State is among the best in the nation and has a surgical offense. I can’t see Jordan Travis having too many problems with the Panthers. Even if Pitt’s DBs shut down Coleman, Travis has the ability to run the ball or even look to Benson who’s been a serviceable option through the air.
It’s clear that Pitt holds its own on the defensive end, but squanders when given a tall task. I don’t foresee Veilleux having much of an impact at all, nor do I see the running game making a dent.
There are a lot of holes in the Panthers’ game before I can consider them on upset alert. Both teams are 6-2 against the spread, and it’s time for one team to separate themselves.
I see the Seminoles covering at -21.5 (-105 at FanDuel), and I’ll go as far as playing it to 24.
