Wisconsin vs Indiana Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +275 |
The Wisconsin Badgers head to Bloomington this week as a sizable favorite in a Big Ten matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers.
Coach Luke Fickell was visibly upset after the Badgers took a beating at the hands of Ohio State last week. The loss put Wisconsin in a rough position heading into the final month of the regular season, with a third defeat and offensive health concerns on the rise.
Conversely, the Hoosiers have been consistently bad this year, losing four in a row and going 0-5 against conference opponents. Last week against Penn State, they kept it fairly close by their standards, losing 33-24.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's find a Wisconsin vs. Indiana prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 4.
Wisconsin Badgers
To say this team is decimated with injuries is an understatement. Star running back Braelon Allen was seen in a walking boot during the Ohio State game. His backup, Chez Mellusi, is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula, and quarterback Tanner Mordecai’s status is unknown after breaking his throwing hand three weeks ago.
Allen was in the midst of having another incredible season, helping Wisconsin to an 11th-ranked rushing Success Rate. However, with his and Mellusi’s absence, the workload now falls on Jackson Acker, a redshirt sophomore who was the team's third-string back entering the season.
Braedyn Locke has filled in admirably for Mordecai the past two weeks. The redshirt freshman has done a solid job at preventing turnovers, but he has converted only 51% of his passes.
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There’s not a whole lot of targets for the quarterbacks in Madison. No. 1 receiver Chimere Dike was injured last week, and while he was seen jogging on the sideline after he exited, there's doubt around his availability for this game. Dike has been tremendous in the limited targets he gets, and Will Pauling gets a ton of volume, too, averaging 11 yards on 41 receptions this season.
Despite the offensive woes, Wisconsin plays solid defensively. The Badgers' defense is 43rd in Success Rate, eighth in Explosives allowed and 49th in Havoc allowed.
Stuffing the pass is a strength of the Badgers, as they stand 40th in Success Rate and 47th in PPA. Darryl Peterson and CJ Goetz have caused problems to opposing quarterbacks with four sacks apiece.
Safety Hunter Wohler leads Wisconsin in tackles, while cornerback Ricardo Hallman leads the Big Ten and is second nationally with five interceptions.
The Badgers also have a solid run defense, ranking 45th in both Success Rate and PPA.
Indiana Hoosiers
With such a poor record, Indiana has had a hard time figuring itself out. Coach Tom Allen benched QB Tayven Jackson a few weeks ago and turned the offense over to Brendan Sorsby. Sorsby fared well against ninth-ranked Penn State, completing 68% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns.
The Hoosiers have fared decently on offense considering their woes at quarterback. While they’re not ones to make the explosive play, they’re ranked 65th in Passing Play Success Rate.
Indiana has a myriad of receiving weapons. Donaven McCulley, Cam Camper and Omar Cooper Jr. all get a ton of volume, and each is averaging at least 13 yards per catch. And running back Jaylin Lucas (29 receptions for 212 yards) also has a prominent role in the receiving game.
The run game is almost non-existent. Both Lucas and Christian Turner don’t really have substantial roles, each averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Indiana’s rushing Success Rate is ranked 127th and 120th in PPA.
Defensively, the Hoosiers are an exceptionally bad team, allowing almost 30 points per game and is ranked 96th in Havoc allowed.
Indiana does have a few prominent defensive players in linebacker Aaron Casey and safety Phillip Dunham. Casey is primarily a run-stopper who leads the team in tackles and tackles for loss. Dunham leads the team in interceptions with three.
The Hoosiers are 106th in passing defense Success Rate and 121st in rushing Success Rate.
Wisconsin vs Indiana
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Indiana match up statistically:
Wisconsin Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 91 | |
| Quality Drives | 116 | 96 | |
Indiana Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 131 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 15 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 17 | 99 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 82 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 133 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (29) | 27.7 (78) |
| Rush Rate | 49.4% (89) | 53.1% (70) |
Wisconsin vs Indiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams appear in total disarray. Wisconsin seems to be falling apart because of injuries to key players, while Indiana — void of true impact players — is still looking for its identity.
The aspect of this game that really stands out to me is Wisconsin’s defense. The Badgers hold their opponents to 19 points per game, which is pretty impressive.
Wisconsin’s front line is strong, but its defensive backs may be even stronger. I really like what I’ve seen out of Wohler and Hallman and don’t think either Sorsby or Jackson (whoever starts) will get an upper hand on them.
This game looks destined to go under the total. With Wisconsin’s injuries and Indiana’s deficiencies, it seems like the perfect storm.
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