College Football Parlay for NC State vs Tennessee
- Tennessee -9.5 (-112)
- Over 60.5 (-112)
- Kevin Concepcion Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Jordan Waters Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
If you’re here after last week’s debacle, I thank you for a second chance at your trust. I don’t think anyone expected Florida State to put up such a dud. To the great teams, losing usually motivates you to be better and I think the Seminoles made it clear what kind of program they are.
We’re onto Week 2, and boy, do we have a special one. The 14th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers, after embarrassing the Chattanooga Mocs, 69-3, head to Charlotte to face off against the 24th-ranked NC State Wolfpack.
I won’t lie, I was very underwhelmed with what I saw out of the Wolfpack. Letting up 21 points to an FCS team in Western Carolina is a massive black eye, even after a win. Alas, we move on, but it won’t be easy against the Vols.
There’s nothing like a primetime game between two ranked powerhouses. What better way to celebrate than cooking up an SGP? Below, find my Tennessee vs. NC State same-game parlay that I built on FanDuel that adds up to +834 odds.
Please always remember to bet responsibly. While they can be fun to tail, SGPs are a long shot for a reason.
Tennessee -9.5 (-112)
I’m getting this one out of the way early. Tennessee is leaps and bounds better than NC State. There’s a higher volume of talent, and the Vols surpass the Wolfpack in virtually every category.
For the most part, NC State’s defense has stayed put from 2023 and fared decently. It ranked 29th in points allowed per game at 21.9, but its consistency is awfully suspect.
The Wolfpack are prone to allowing a large number of points to teams superior to them, like when they let up 45 to Notre Dame. Also, how can we forget about them allowing Marshall to score 41 on them? It’s almost inexcusable.
Heading into the fourth quarter last week against Western Carolina, NC State was losing 21-17, only for the Wolfpack to score 21 points in the fourth quarter. If they’re going to struggle against an FCS team, how are they going to handle one of the SEC’s top programs?
Well, that’s exactly where the Vols come in. Last week’s bout against Chattanooga was pure domination. Nico Iamaleava completed 78% of his passes, and the defense was on the prowl. Though, I think the defense can be a lot more aggressive.
I see this D-line as one of the more formidable lines in college football and last week only resulted in only one sack and three combined tackles for loss.
However, it was missing out on James Pearce Jr., the program's top defensive end. He only played 10 snaps against Chattanooga, and I can see Josh Heupel unleashing him this week.
Over 60.5 (-112)
I always try to be cautious when betting over/under, because it can be subjective. When I looked at our PRO Insights, though, the public is putting big money towards the over.
While only 52% of the tickets generated are aimed toward the over, it’s backed by 91% of the money — which creates a +39% differential.
The public saw what the Volunteer offense was capable of, when they put up 69 points (albeit against an FCS team), and decided to pull the trigger.
NC State is also adept at putting points on the board. It has a big playmaker in Kevin Concepcion (more on him later), and Grayson McCall threw for 300-plus yards against Western Carolina.
Kevin Concepcion Over 75.5 yards (-114)
I don’t expect much out of this Wolfpack offense, but the one thing I’ll be on the lookout for is Kevin Concepcion.
The sophomore receiver dazzled many when he went for 839 yards in ‘23, including three 100-plus yard games.
To start the season, Concepcion came out the gate hot with a 129-yard performance on nine targets and three touchdowns. Having a quarterback like McCall, who hasn’t had a season under a 65% completion rate, will only help bolster his stats.
It’ll be a much different test than what the Wolfpack endured last week, and I still have reservations on this program as a whole. However, if there was one thing Tennessee doesn’t do at a high level, is stopping the pass (66th Success Rate, 59th in explosiveness allowed).
I can see McCall finding weaknesses in this secondary that largely has stayed intact since ‘23, and finding Concepcion for a few big plays.
Jordan Waters Under 69.5 Rush (-114)
Jordan Waters had himself an exceptional game to start the 2024 season, rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns. I hope he enjoyed himself because I can’t see that continuing into Week 2.
Earlier, I mentioned that Tennessee has one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country and we’ll most likely see Pearce back taking major snaps against a ranked team.
With Pearce’s probable return, I have to think that only hurts Waters’ chance to make an impact. Without Pearce, this line is still stacked. Even in limited snaps last week, Chattanooga ran the ball 35 times and averaged 2.1 yards per carry.
That poses absolute misery for the graduate back.
