College Football Predictions, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Week 4 NCAAF Betting Card for Saturday, September 21

College Football Predictions, Picks for Week 4

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Louisiana +3
	3:30 p.m.	USC Team Total Over 24.5
	7:30 p.m.	Oklahoma +7
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Last week's college football slate failed to put many marquee matchups on the board. But that all changes in Week 4.

This week's college football schedule features plenty of intriguing matchups, including four showdowns between top-25 teams: No. 24 Illinois vs. No. 22 Nebraska, No. 11 USC vs. No. 18 Michigan, No. 12 Utah vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma.

In my Week 4 Action Network betting card, I'm breaking down two of those games — USC vs. Michigan in the Big Ten and Tennessee vs. Oklahoma in the SEC — as well as a nonconference bout between Tulane and Louisiana.

We needed a quality slate after last week, and the college football schedule-makers delivered. So, let's strap in and make the most of it while we still can.

Check out college football picks and predictions for Week 4 in my NCAAF betting card for Saturday, Sept. 21 below.

Saturday, Sept. 21

12 p.m. ET

ESPNU

Louisiana +3

A pair of Group of Five conference contenders will have a bayou-flavored Interstate 10 clash in Week 4.

The Tulane Green Wave (1-2) and Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (2-0) are set to kick from Cajun Field in a battle of conference supremacy between the Sun Belt and AAC on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

The Green Wave find themselves in a massive sandwich spot after facing Kansas State and Oklahoma in each of the past two weeks. Then, after facing Louisiana, they have to open conference play in a tricky spot against South Florida.

It's worth noting that new Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall previously served in the same role at Troy, beating the Ragin' Cajuns by a possession in each of the last two years of Sun Belt play.

Louisiana, meanwhile, has had an easier path with games against Kennesaw State and Grambling, giving it a strength of schedule of 132nd. The Cajuns will not be looking ahead to conference play in Week 5, with a road game at Wake Forest on deck.

Tulane enters as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 54.5.

With both teams looking to snag an important nonconference victory, let's dive into my Tulane vs. Louisiana picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Sept. 21.

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Tulane Green Wave

Offensive coordinator Joe Craddock made the move from Troy to Tulane with Sumrall, bringing experience in game planning against the Louisiana defense.

The Green Wave continue to rush on nearly 60% of offensive snaps, featuring one of the most elusive running backs in the Group of Five in Makhi Hughes.

Craddock calls a plethora of inside and outside zone reads for Hughes with quarterback Darian Mensah.

Hughes has kept his career average from a yards-after-contact perspective at 3.6, creating six explosive runs and nine missed tackles on 53 rushing attempts.

Tulane has struggled to throw the ball since its opening game against Southeastern Louisiana. Since that game, Mensah has generated three touchdowns and five turnover-worthy plays.

Fumbles have also been an issue, as the Green Wave have three fumbles lost in the past two games against Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Despite ranking 100th in Havoc Allowed on offense, Mensah has led Tulane to a top-10 number in Passing EPA.

Sumrall's 3-3-5 defense has consistently struggled in a number of areas.

Although the Kansas State and Oklahoma offenses pack a punch, the Green Wave sit outside the top 100 in Defensive Havoc and coverage grading, per PFF.

The biggest area of concern is the lack of tackling, ranking 132nd thanks to a whopping 48 missed tackles through three games.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Louisiana welcomed the return of injured quarterback Ben Wooldridge to start the season. Through two games, the senior has recorded four touchdowns and zero turnover-worthy plays against Grambling and Kennesaw State.

Wooldridge has not committed a turnover-worthy play in the passing game in 122 attempts dating back to the 2022 season. Throw out a seven-turnover-worthy play performance in a single game against Southern Miss, and Wooldridge has three mistakes in a total of 390 passing attempts in his career.

Louisiana's zone-read rush concept has a heavy influence of 11 and 12 personnel, using hitch and crossing routes as the primary driver to create explosives in the passing game.

Elijah Davis and Zylan Perry have produced more than 250 rushing yards through two games, with each averaging more than 4.7 yards after contact.

The wideouts, meanwhile, have produced the most explosive plays. Jacob Bernard and Robert Williams each average at least three yards per route run — an elite level in terms of explosiveness.

The Ragin' Cajuns feature a three-man front that often shifts to nickel in passing downs.

Linebacker K.C. Ossai leads the team in tackles, followed closely by safety Tyrone Lewis Jr. Louisiana is close to dead last in creating Havoc, although that could be the game plan for coordinator Jim Salgado considering the opening schedule.

Tulane vs Louisiana Prediction, Pick

There are distinct differences at the quarterback position for both squads.

Wooldridge has been a head coach's dream in terms of taking care of the ball. Although the 2024 schedule has been Cupcake City, Louisiana continues to rank top-20 Havoc Allowed season after season.

Wooldridge leads a Ragin' Cajuns offense that ranks second nationally in Quality Drives thanks to just two passes defensed and six tackles for loss by two opponents.

With Tulane ranking 112th in Defensive Havoc and 113th in coverage grading, expect Louisiana to maintain drives in standard downs to set up scoring opportunities.

Tulane has fielded a number of issues in the Havoc Allowed on the offensive side of the ball. Although the competition has been Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Green Wave offensive line has given up 16 tackles for loss and 38 pressures in three games.

Accurate passing has been a consistent issue for Mensah, as Tulane ranks 130th in on-target rate.

With a look-ahead conference spot facing Tulane and not Louisiana, this could be a deflating spot for a Green Wave squad coming off two grinding Power Four games with USF on deck.

Pick: Louisiana +3

Saturday, Sept. 21

3:30 p.m. ET

CBS

USC Team Total Over 24.5

The USC Trojans (2-0) will kick off its first-ever Big Ten game against the Michigan Wolverines (2-1) at the Big House on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 3:30 p.m. on ABC.

These teams have not met since a Rose Bowl appearance nearly 20 years ago, as the Wolverines will look to defend their home field against a top-15 team for the second time this season.

On the other side, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has been riding high after a season-opening victory over LSU in Las Vegas.

The Trojans offense could be counted on despite the loss of a Heisman-winning quarterback in Caleb Williams, but the defense has vaulted USC to new heights.

Riley's team cut down on missed tackles while stiffening up when the Tigers got into scoring position. The defensive numbers improved even more with a shutout of Utah State before the bye week.

The story has been more complicated for a Michigan team that has failed to cover the spread in three games.

The Wolverines have struggled to find any rhythm on the ground or through the air offensively, generating one of the worst numbers in explosives in standard downs.

Head coach Sherrone Moore will make a change at quarterback on Saturday, indicating the Wolverines will look to beat the Trojans with a heavy ground game.

This game has seen a wild swing on the point spread, as Michigan could be found as a double-digit favorite in the summer. However, that number has moved toward USC at a lightning pace. Now, the Trojans enter as a -5.5 favorite with an over/under of 44.5.

Is that steam justified? Let's dive into my USC vs. Michigan picks and college football predictions for Saturday.

USC Trojans

The final box score against LSU could not have been more clean on any splits concerning Success Rate. USC generated two explosive drives (defined as a drive with a minimum of 10 yards per play) out of 11 possessions.

Quarterback Miller Moss may have ended the game with just a single touchdown on 378 yards passing, but the junior finished with five big-time throws and a single turnover-worthy play.

Southern California dominated LSU with 9.5 yards per play in passing attempts, as wideout Kyron Hudson provided all the highlights.

The rushing attack bulled over LSU in the red zone, with Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks collecting two touchdowns. The domination on the ground continued against Utah State, as USC tallied five rushing touchdowns on the evening.

In terms of penalties, third-down attempts and Line Yards for the offensive line, this USC offense has been crisp in the wake of losing a quarterback who was picked No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.

The biggest change for the Trojans comes on the defensive side of the ball, as new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has lived up to the offseason hype.

USC has revamped its nickel defense, pumping a blitz rate up to 41% of snaps. Opponent rushing attempts have been fruitless, as the Trojans defense ranks top-20 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate.

The biggest change may come in tackle grading, where USC ranks 44th. Although the Trojans have missed 14 tackles through two games, it's an improvement from a 2023 team that missed 141 on the season.

Michigan Wolverines

The news of a change at quarterback was a surprise to Michigan's entire roster, as Moore relayed the change to the media before making an announcement to his team.

The move from Davis Warren to Alex Orji signifies a heavier lean toward the rush for a team that already runs the ball at a 56% clip.

The junior has attempted seven career passes in three seasons on the Michigan roster. However, there may be no passing dimension to the Wolverines offense if tight end Colston Loveland isn't cleared to play before kickoff.

Expect the Wolverines to lean on the offensive line for Orji, who has 179 career rushing yards on designed run calls.

Michigan has found success running the ball in its three games. The Wolverines rank top-35 in Rushing Success and Line Yards while posting Stuff Rate numbers better than the national average against Arkansas State, Texas and Fresno State.

Running back Donovan Edwards hasn't yet found his explosiveness, but Kalel Mullings has generated five explosive runs with an average of 5.1 yards after contact on 36 rushing attempts. It's noteworthy that Mullings didn't generate any of the explosives against Texas, producing just 19 yards after contact the entire game.

On the other side, Michigan's defense continues to struggle against the pass.

Arkansas State and Fresno State combined for 13 passes that exceeded 15 yards against the Wolverines' Cover 3. Uncharacteristically, the defense has been Havoc-less through three games with an overall rank of 80th.

The cornerbacks have provided the bulk of pass breakups and interceptions, as Aamir Hall, Jyaire Hill and Will Johnson have combined for seven total.

However, coverage grading has been poor for the back seven, as Hill, Johnson and linebacker Ernest Hausmann have allowed catches on 35-of-49 targets for a combined 257 yards.

The Michigan defense ranks 79th in on-target rate allowed, so USC's passing attack should find success.

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USC vs Michigan Prediction, Pick

Every advantage except for the home field resides with the Trojans here.

Moss will lead USC in its first road game in front of a hostile environment, much like Quinn Ewers did for Texas in Week 2.

The Longhorns had a key advantage in experience, as the bulk of the roster had recently won the Big 12 and played in the College Football Playoff.

USC could start the game sluggish in its first Big Ten road game, but the matchup on paper completely favors the visitors.

Slot receiver Zachariah Branch has the potential to break a few explosive plays for the Trojans. The Wolverines' slot corner duties fall to Zeke Berry, who allowed 3-of-4 targets to be caught for 22 yards against Texas.

The remaining pieces of the secondary will have trouble contending with a passing attack that's one of the most accurate in the nation.

Orji is the wild card in this game, changing the Michigan offense to a completely ground-based zone-read attack.

Action Network projects USC as a -4 favorite — below the current market number of -6. This number sat at Michigan -9 before Week 0 and has been a tug-of-war for both sides at 6.5.

USC is a buy at -3, as is Michigan at +7 or better.

However, those numbers may never enter the market, leaving bettors with a potential moneyline wager on USC or a live in-game wager on Michigan.

The better bet comes when taking into account the known quantities of USC's offense against Michigan's defense. The Trojans field a renewed rushing attack and a passing offense that has advantages against the Wolverines' secondary.

Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has not met expectations for the Wolverines after previously serving in the same role for the Baltimore Ravens. Inside information regarding Michigan’s defense could be repeated verbatim by USC’s defensive coordinator, as Lynn served as the secondary coach for the Ravens during Martindale’s tenure in Baltimore.

Riley will be sure to include Lynn in the offensive game plan, making USC's team total the play as the market currently stands.

Pick: USC Team Total Over 24.5

Saturday, Sept. 21

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Oklahoma +7

Josh Heupel returns to Norman after a storied career that includes stops as a Heisman runner-up and an assistant coach for Oklahoma. The Tennessee head coach led the effort in Norman during a run to the National Championship in 2000.

That season included a Heisman run that fell just a few hundred votes short of taking home the most prestigious award in college football. The feelings were not as warm during his exit as offensive coordinator in 2014, though, as his contract was not renewed after failing to meet the program standard under Bob Stoops.

Now, Heupel will lead the Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) into Norman to face the Brent Venables-led Oklahoma Sooners (3-0).

Oklahoma Memorial Stadium is expected to filled with fans with mixed feelings. That might not last long, though, as the Sooners are in desperate need of a victory after struggles in nonconference play.

A rout of Temple in the opener covered up a 10% Success Rate on two dozen passing downs, while a near loss to Houston further demonstrated struggles in the passing game, averaging 4.7 yards per play. The passing game improved against Tulane, but it was still a grind of a cover.

For Sooners to keep up with Heupel and the Vols, explosive plays must come through the air.

Tennessee enters this SEC showdown as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. So, where does the betting value lie? Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Oklahoma picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Sept. 21.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers' wide-split tempo offense has been in full gear since the first snap of the season.

With a flavor of Art Briles' Veer-and-Shoot and a mix of Air Raid concepts, a quarterback who can mix RPO gives Tennessee one of the most electric offenses in the nation.

Nico Iamaleava is on track to be the best quarterback to ever run the Heupel offense, already firing six touchdowns while posting nearly 100 yards in the rushing game.

Numerous weapons on the outside have taken the next step in terms of explosiveness as well. Wideout Chris Brazzell II and slot Squirrel White both have greater than two yards per route run.

Against the secondaries of Kent State, NC State and Chattanooga, Iamaleava has led Tennessee to a top-25 rank in on-target rate, a measure of accuracy in the passing game.

The surprising element to this point has been the rushing attack. Running back Dylan Sampson has posted 4.7 yards after contact while collecting nine rushing touchdowns against the nonconference competition.

Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has seen an improvement on defense through three weeks of play.

The Volunteers lead the nation in Defensive Quality and Finishing Frives, but an uptick in Havoc has played a major factor so far this season. Tennessee has already collected 20 tackles for loss and 16 passes defensed on the season.

Edge James Pearce Jr. continues to dominate offensive tackles, leading the team in pressures thus far.

If there's an area that went untested through the first 25% of the season, it's the secondary. The 2023 two-deep depth chart was emptied in the offseason, so the Vols added three transfers with experience from Temple, Oregon State and Middle Tennessee.

Former Beaver cornerback Jermod McCoy has the highest coverage grading so far, recording two pass breakups on the season. Outside of three forced incompletions, no other player in the secondary has a high coverage grade.

Safeties Will Brooks and Andre Turrentine have allowed 5-of-6 targets to be caught, while cornerback Boo Carter has allowed the most yards after catch on the team.

Banks is expected to continue utilizing a high amount of zone in Cover 3.

Oklahoma Sooners

The biggest statistic that indicates the winner of a game is the Success Rate battle. Although Oklahoma is undefeated, the Sooners hang outside the top 90 in terms of Rushing Success Rate and rank a poor 121st in Passing Success Rate.

Offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is respected as one of the best in the business, but five new starters in the trench have had a direct impact on passing attempts for the Sooners.

Sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold has already faced 28 pressures through three games, completing 6-of-16 pass attempts with two interceptions in a crowded pocket.

However, Arnold has been tremendous in a clean pocket, generating six touchdowns without recording a turnover-worthy play.

The offensive line has also struggled in run blocking from a Line Yards and Stuff Rate perspective through three games.

However, the Sooners saw improvement in their latest game against Tulane. The Green Wave stuffed OU at a national average rate, while the Sooners produced five explosives runs.

Nearly half of OU's drives featured two or more first downs, as it also generated multiple methodical and explosive drives.

Oklahoma exceeded the national average in Finishing Drives, a metric that looks at points per drive that extends beyond the opponent's 40-yard line. The numbers are a positive development against a Tulane defense that's top-35 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

The defense has carried the water for Oklahoma so far this season, producing top-30 ranks in tackling, Opponent Quality Drives and Havoc.

Defensive coordinator Zac Alley has generated one of the toughest defenses in the nation against the rush. Entering Week 4, the Sooners sit top-10 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate and rush explosives.

The focus against Tennessee will certainly be on a secondary that pivots between Cover 3 and quarters. Venables is sure to replicate Georgia head coach Kirby Smart's “mint” package featured in quarters coverage.

Oklahoma’s best weapon against Tennessee's offense will be interrupting receiver routes to throw off the timing between the receiver and Iamaleava.

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Tennessee vs Oklahoma Prediction, Pick

While the focus is on Heupel’s return to Norman, there may not be anyone who knows the Tennessee head coach more than Venables. The current Oklahoma head coach was the defensive coordinator for the Sooners from 1999-2011.

That time span covers Heupel’s time in Norman as a player, quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. There's no lack of familiarity between the two coaches in this Week 4 clash.

The first handicap resides in Oklahoma's offensive line keeping a clean pocket for Arnold — a tough assignment against Pearce.

Starting tackle Michael Tarquin possesses the highest pass-blocking grade of any starting offensive lineman. Tarquin has experience at both tackle positions but is expected to stay on the right side, where Pearce plays most of his snaps.

With a clean pocket, Arnold will have to continue his streak of not making a turnover-worthy play.

Another positive for Sooners comes in the secondary, as safety Robert Spears-Jennings ranks as the seventh-best individual pass coverage defender in the nation. Cornerback Kani Walker also pulls a top-125 coverage grade of all defenders in FBS, per PFF.

Fellow cornerback Dez Malone deserves mention for his play this season, allowing just 3-of-10 targets to be caught while recording two pass breakups.

Action Network's betting power ratings make this game less than a field goal, which os especially notable after steam hit the Tennessee number.

Market inflation was to be expected with Oklahoma’s struggles, while Tennessee routed NC State on a neutral field in Charlotte.

With the progression of the Sooners' offensive line and a secondary with high coverage grades, Memorial Stadium will provide a boost against Heupel's wide-split spread. Expect Oklahoma to challenge for an outright victory.

Pick: Oklahoma +7 or Better

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