Saturday College Football Player Prop Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Bowl season is here, so it's time to add an extra element to our Saturday betting cards with a few college football player props.
Saturday's schedule features six games, and our staff came through with four player props for three of those contests, including picks for Texas Tech's Tahj Brooks and Coy Eakin, Miami (OH)'s Rashad Amos and New Mexico State's Jonathan Brady.
So, let's jump into our analysis for Saturday's college football bowl game player props.
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Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
RB Rashad Amos
Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
The Miami (OH) RedHawks have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the year out of the MAC, going 11-2 and blowing their preseason win total of seven out of the water.
They capped their regular season with a MAC Championship win over Toledo.
Their prize for their championship? A matchup with the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Well, it may end up being a prize specifically for Amos, as he should have a huge day with a favorable matchup.
Miami quarterback Aevon Smith has been solid as a starter with a 5-0 record, but he entered the transfer portal, so look for Amos to propel Miami’s offense.
The Mountaineers have struggled to stop the run all season. Appalachian State ranks 119th in Rushing PPA Allowed, 108th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 109th in rushing explosiveness.
They’ve practically been a sieve, letting almost anyone run through their front seven untouched.
Expect Amos to have a big day. These bowl games can come down to who wants it more, and I think Miami will want it more. Enjoy watching them the RedHawks Amos on Saturday as he rushes for 100-plus yards against a brutal rush defense.
Pick: Amos Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 89.5)
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana
WR Jonathan Brady
Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
By Doug Ziefel
In modern-day bowl season, we typically see players further down the depth chart step into bigger roles as the transfer portal and number of opt-outs pile up.
However, this wideout is the Aggies' leading receiver, and he's going to see an uptick in volume as the team's No. 2 option, Trent Hudson, has entered the transfer portal.
Now, the Aggies are not a team that threw the ball a ton this season — just 45% of the time — but Jonathan Brady was very efficient with his targets. Brady led the team in receptions and yardage, with an impressive average of 16.6 yards per catch.
He and a healthy Diego Pavia will face a Fresno State secondary that ranked 70th in PFF's coverage grading and came in at 58th in yards per pass allowed.
Given a decent matchup, an increase in reception volume and excellent efficiency, the over is the side you want here.
Pick: Brady Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 42.5)
Cal vs. Texas Tech
WR Coy Eakin
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
By Doug Ziefel
If you've kept a keen eye on our bowl opt-out and transfer portal tracker, you would see that there are going to be a lot of snaps that need to be replaced in the Red Raiders' receiving corps.
Starting wide receivers Myles Price and Jerand Bradley have both entered the transfer portal, and the next leading receiver on the depth chart is Coy Eakin.
Eakin caught 29 passes for 310 yards this season, which equates to an average of 10.7 yards per reception. That's an average we can work with, as he should see a significant uptick in volume as a starting wideout.
In addition to the increase in opportunity, Texas Tech will have an excellent opportunity to have success through the air. The Cal Golden Bears ranked 104th in opponent completion percentage and 97th in yards per pass allowed.
Lastly, the market has recognized this opportunity for Eakin, as well. Most books have this line three yards higher. So, take advantage of all the value of this over.
Pick: Eakin Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 55.5)
RB Tahj Brooks
Over 122.5 Rushing Yards
By Greg Liodice
I know what you’re thinking. This is a massive number — even for a guy like Tahj Brooks, who has had an impressive senior campaign. He ran for over 1,400 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry for a Texas Tech team that relied heavily on him.
Aside from Brooks, there really isn’t much else to write home about. Sure, Behren Morton has done a fine job taking over the quarterback job, but he doesn't have any viable receiving threats after Myles Price and Jerand Bradley entered the portal.
The offense is run through Brooks, and I expect a whole lot of running from him.
Texas Tech faces Cal, and needless to say, the Golden Bears are pretty lucky to be where they are after ending the season on a three-game winning streak. While the Bears struggle mightily against the pass, their run defense isn’t that great either.
They rank 89th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 78th in explosiveness allowed.
Cal had some really solid linebackers who could help stifle the run in Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Cade Uluave, but Elarms-Orr entered the portal and I'm not convinced Uluave can stop Brooks, who led the FBS with 91 forced missed tackles.
So, yes, 122.5 is a big number. But for Brooks, anything seems possible.
Pick: Brooks Over 122.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 125.5)
