Sportbooks face a unique challenge when attempting to handicap all 136 FBS teams.
Oddsmakers spend an inordinate amount of time fine-tuning their Power 4 numbers because those teams draw the highest ticket volume. From win totals to conference championship odds, sportsbooks know everything about top teams' coaching staffs, their two-deeps and the scheduling quirks that can impact their regular season.
But oddsmakers can fall asleep at the wheel when it comes to Group of Five programs. And the easiest place to see this is in the “To Make The College Football Playoff” market.
Oddsmakers essentially hit “copy and paste” from last season. Boise State, Tulane, Navy and Army are the four shortest favorites to make the 12-team field.
Boise earned the bid last year after a 12-1 fall, which included a Mountain West title and a near-miss on the road against No. 1 Oregon. Tulane and Army met in the AAC Championship, while Navy won 10 games for the first time in five years.
But all four teams are facing major question marks this fall.
Let's dive into my College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF odds for the Group of Five's CFP spot.
Trouble for G5 Favorites
Boise State (+190) must replace one of the sport’s greatest running backs. Ashton Jeanty threatened Barry Sanders' rushing record while punching in 30 touchdowns.
The drop off from Jeanty to a mere mortal, in this case Sire Gaines, is significant. That will place more pressure on quarterback Maddux Madsen and a defense that finished 60th in yards allowed per game in 2024.
Tulane (+750) remains well-coached and talent-laden, but the Green Wave lost quarterback Darian Mensah to Duke in the transfer portal, and its backup plan, TJ Finley, ran afoul of the law and transferred out of the program this April.
That leaves them with Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza. While intriguing as an undersized dual-threat passer, he finished with a QBR of 51.1 (83rd) despite playing a soft MAC schedule.
As for the service academies, I’m shocked to see the Midshipmen and Black Knights third and fourth, respectively, in the G5 pecking order.
Navy (+1000) needs to replace half of its defensive production while facing a gauntlet of challenging offenses at midseason, including games against Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Notre Dame and USF.
The Midshipmen's offense also caught teams by surprise last fall, but with a full offseason and 13 games' worth of tape to pore over, opponents will be more prepared this time around.
Army (+1200), meanwhile, lost “Captain America” at quarterback. Bryson Daily was the heart and soul of the Army offense, and he’s a Cadet who won’t easily be replaced.
And critically, both Army and Navy return just two starters along their offensive lines. Will they be bowl-worthy? Absolutely. But a trip to the CFP is pure fantasy.
So, if these top teams have major holes to paper over, which programs stand to benefit?
Why UTSA and Toledo Can Make a CFP Run
Let’s start with the fact that both UTSA (+1400) and Toledo (+8000) return quality quarterbacks.
Owen McCown closed 2024 on an incredible heater for the Roadrunners, accounting for 15 touchdowns and 2,030 total yards across his final six games.
Toledo’s Tucker Gleason was an equal force down the stretch. He notably torched Pitt in the GameAbove Sports Bowl, racking up 370 total yards to go along with three touchdowns.
Both programs return 75% or more of their offensive production, ranking each inside the top 11 at the FBS level.
Each program boasts a veteran coaching staff with significant continuity. Jason Candle is entering his 10th season on the sidelines in Toledo, while Jeff Traylor has been the face of the UTSA program since 2020. Their coordinators have been loyal as well, which is incredibly rare given the annual coaching carousel in this sport.
Roster and coaching continuity give them a chance, but it’s their schedules that have me buying stock.
The Roadrunners could be favored in as many as 10 games this season. Toledo could one-up UTSA by closing as a favorite in 11 of its 12 regular-season games.
The Roadrunners open the year at Texas A&M, a game that could change the trajectory of its program. Beating an SEC foe would put them in the AP Top 25 overnight, and for all of its hype, A&M played with its food last year, narrowly beating Arkansas and Bowling Green while losing to Auburn in overtime.
As for Toledo, it also opens with an SEC opponent in Kentucky. A win as a touchdown-plus underdog would do wonders for its CFP profile, and I could see it getting the job done after it demolished Mississippi State, 41-17, last season.
Picks: UTSA to Make CFP (+1400) · Toledo to Make CFP (+8000)
