The Week 9 NCAAF slate wraps up with an intriguing night window. I'm looking for the best betting value, and I'll provide that with NCAAF picks and predictions, including two Saturday night bets.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 9, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 34-28-1 (54.8%)
- Overall: 133-98-2 (57.6%)
NCAAF Picks, Predictions for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. ET | Michigan State +4.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Kansas +10 |
Michigan State +4.5 at Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
I had this spot circled prior to the season, and I'm sure Sparty has as well after getting embarrassed on their home field, 49-0, against their in-state rival and eventual national champions a season ago.
While it doesn't necessarily fit the mold of a buy-low, sell-high spot with Michigan State upsetting Iowa last week and Michigan losing as a favorite at Illinois, I expect the Spartans to continue to be a buy-on team in the near future following their bye week.
I also believe the market simply can't catch up to how much some of these teams — like Michigan and Florida State — can fall off from one season to the next. Trust me, I struggle with it myself. But that's the new college football world we live in.
Similar to last week against Iowa, this matchup sets up well for the Michigan State defense, which has excelled at slowing down opposing rushing attacks (26th in Success Rate).
The Spartans have had issues in coverage, but that's not a concern against the Wolverines, who are averaging a paltry 128.3 passing yards per game. Here are the teams averaging less (notice not even Iowa makes the list):
- New Mexico State
- Kennesaw State
- UL Monroe
- Air Force
- Army
Only Air Force and Kennesaw average less than Michigan's 5.4 yards per attempt.
The Michigan defense is still very good but might be down star cornerback Will Johnson, who usually takes away one half of the field.
I'm just not sure where the Wolverines are at mentally after suffering their third loss of the season.
They have no offense to speak of, and the defense may start to wear down as the season progresses. They're not even getting any help from a subpar punt team.
It's also worth mentioning that Michigan State has been excellent in the scripted portion of the game under Jonathan Smith. In a game where points should come at a premium (total of 40), an early score or two could end up deciding this game.
Give me the battle-tested Spartans on the road with the much better coach and quarterback with a defense that can hold its own against Michigan's running backs.
It's shocking to even type, but I actually have Michigan State power-rated as the better team on a neutral field right now by a slim margin. Prior to the season, I had Michigan closer to -20.
Notable Nugget
Jonathan Smith is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as a road underdog of more than a field goal in his career, covering by over six points per game on average.
Projection: Michigan State +2.6
Pick: Michigan State +3.5 or Better
Kansas +10 at Kansas State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
It's not often you see a 2-5 team with a +45 scoring margin, but that's exactly what we have in Kansas, which has losses by margins of three, four, four, six and 11.
The Jayhawks started a string of five straight losses with a six-point defeat at Illinois in a game that flipped on a pick-six in the final minute of the half.
They had similar end-of-half misfortune in the next game against UNLV, which then eventually put together an insane 10-minute game-winning touchdown drive at the end of the fourth quarter. A -5 turnover margin didn't help in either of those losses.
Things didn't get any better from there.
They blew a double-digit lead with under five minutes to go in Morgantown against West Virginia followed by a home loss to TCU in a game that flipped on a Horned Frogs 90-yard punt return touchdown at the end of the third quarter.
The pain continued in Tempe after the Sun Devils scored a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds.
The Jayhawks are a few bounces away from being 5-2 on the season in which case this line would likely be closer to 7 or 7.5 — especially if Kansas State hadn't pulled out both of its coin-flip games against Colorado (which lost Travis Hunter in the game) and Tulane.
Meanwhile, its other league wins haven't aged particularly well against Oklahoma State, Arizona and a West Virginia team that suffered a number of injuries, including one to starting quarterback Garrett Greene.
Kansas finally got back on track last week at home against Houston in a blowout 28-point victory, which had to be a welcome relief for head coach Lance Leipold, who I still value as one of the best coaches in college football.
From a matchup perspective, Kansas State should have plenty of success on the ground against the Kansas defense.
However, I believe Kansas will have ample opportunities to move the ball against a vulnerable Kansas State stop unit. After a rough start to the season, quarterback Jalon Daniels is now playing much cleaner football.
Kansas is one of the nation's most undervalued teams, in my opinion.
I expect Leipold to have his team ready for an in-state rival that rallied from 11 points down last year for a four-point victory in a game where Kansas had to start third-string quarterback Cole Ballard.
That marked Kansas State's 15th straight victory in the Sunflower Showdown.
Notable Nugget
Chris Klieman is 17-5 ATS (77.3%) as a home favorite against FBS opponents, covering by over 10 points per game.
Projection: Kansas +7.6
Pick: Kansas +10 or Better
