We're on to Week 12 of the college football season.
My primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, I have highlighted my three favorite betting spots for Week 12's noon games.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 46-39-0 +2.13 units (54.1%)
- Overall: 91-59-1 +24.95 units (60.7%)
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Miami +1 |
  | 12 p.m. | Maryland +19 |
  | 12 p.m. | Army +4.5 |
Miami +1 vs. Louisville
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I haven't been a fan of this Louisville team all season.
The Cardinals deserve credit for winning nine of their 10 games, but they've played only one top-30 team, per my numbers, which came at home against an exhausted Notre Dame team in one of the best situational spots of the season.
It also didn't hurt that Notre Dame, which had wide receiver injuries and made a bizarre decision to rotate offensive linemen, turned the ball over five times.
The rest of Louisville's resume leaves a lot to be desired even if you remove a horrid blowout loss at Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals have gone 4-0 in one-possession games that each easily could've gone either way against NC State, Virginia, Indiana and Georgia Tech — not exactly a murderer's row — and three of those four weren't even sporting a winning record at the time.
To make it even worse, three of those teams made coordinator or quarterback changes at some point in the season following their matchup against Louisville, which also benefited from facing a Duke team with a hampered Riley Leonard at quarterback.
It's possible Louisville experienced early struggles as it adjusted to new schemes on both sides of the ball under a brand-new staff.
However, after looking like that may be the case in a blowout win over Virginia Tech, the Cardinals followed that performance up with a stinker against Virginia in which it needed to mount a late comeback just to pull out that home win.
All of the pressure is on Louisville here, which could work in favor of a Miami team that can play much looser in a spoiler role. This game now becomes its Super Bowl, assuming the Canes didn't empty the tank last week against Florida State.
Speaking of pressure, expect quarterback Jack Plummer to feel the heat throughout against a very aggressive and underrated defense under coordinator Lance Guidry.
Based on his historical splits, that could lead to disaster for the immobile Plummer, who has struggled immensely when under pressure throughout his collegiate career.
After 11 interceptions over his past five games, all of the talk has been about Miami quarterback Tyler van Dyke's turnover woes, as he has failed to adjust to opposing defenses dropping eight against him.
However, every single one of his turnover-worthy throws has essentially ended in an interception. Plus, he was dealing with an injury that completely cratered his throwing motion for a few games and has faced a much tougher schedule with Miami splitting four games against top-30 teams.
Despite all of that, Van Dyke has only one more turnover-worthy play than Plummer with five more big-time throws. I expect Plummer to make a few key mistakes in this one.
I admittedly am a bit hesitant to back Van Dyke, who was presumably benched for production after recovering from his injury before regaining his job due to an injury to Emory Williams.
However, he should at least be healthier now, and he does have an outstanding group of wide receivers — and now a fully healthy running back room — to work with on the outside in addition to one of the most underrated offensive lines in the country.
I just hope his confidence isn't completely shaken. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a few series filled with predominately designed run packages for dual-threat Jacurri Brown, who gained starting experience last season but remains limited as a passer.
While Louisville has been fortunate in a number of games this season, the opposite is true for Miami.
Head coach Mario Cristobal basically lost two games on his own by not taking knees against Georgia Tech and then calling an inexplicable timeout on a fourth-and-short at the goal line in the fourth quarter against NC State in a game Miami dominated statisically.
Ultimately, I'm trusting Miami didn't leave it all out on the field last week and siding with the more talented Canes at home against a fraudulent Louisville squad that really should have a few more losses under its belt.
And Louisville's performances shouldn't give any Cardinals fans much confidence here, as Jeff Brohm's bunch has played only two true road games so far this season: a 38-21 loss at lowly Pittsburgh and a 13-10 victory at NC State in a game where the Wolfpack gave away a 10-0 halftime lead with three second-half turnovers.
Plus, the Cardinals aren't even fully healthy, as their top two skill-position players — wide receiver Jamari Thrash and running back Jawhar Jordan — are still dealing with nagging injuries. Top cornerback Jarvis Brownlee's status is also in doubt once again this week.
Lastly, Miami sports one of the best special teams units in the country, whereas Louisville rates around the national average in that department.
As a result, the Canes should have the edge in the third phase, which could certainly swing a game projected as a coin-flip in their favor.
Pick: Miami +1 (Play to -1)
Notable Nugget
It doesn't happen often, but Miami has gone 11-6 ATS (64.7%) as a home underdog since 2005.
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Maryland +19 vs. Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
At this number, I simply have to fade Michigan in a classic sandwich spot in College Park after taking care of business at Penn State with one of the biggest college football games of the season on deck.
I won't waste your time by attempting to wax poetic about the Terps, who got waxed two weeks ago at home by Penn State. That's certainly a bit concerning.
But I show too much value at this number to pass it up with the surrounding circumstances.
Behind an offensive line that excels in pass blocking, Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and a group of talented pass-catchers will at least present the Michigan secondary with its toughest test of the season to date.
For what it's worth, Maryland lost, 34-27, last year in this matchup in Ann Arbor.
I'm confident the Maryland offense can score at least 17 points, which is likely all it would take against a Wolverines squad that I expect to go super conservative (which they already do to some extent) once they build a lead.
Not only could they potentially come out a bit flat for this noon kick, but I just can't envision the staff wanting to show anything more than they have to or risk any injuries before The Game next Saturday.
Style points are irrelevant since Michigan's entire season will come down to next week if it just gets out of dodge with a win.
Pick: Maryland +19 (Play to +18.5)
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Michigan and Ohio State are just 12-21-1 (36.4%) the week before The Game, failing to cover by approximately 3.5 points per game on average. That includes a 5-13 ATS (27.8%) record when favored by double digits.
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Army +4.5 vs. Coastal Carolina
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I'm not sure Coastal Carolina gets off the bus for this late-season nonconference matchup that really means absolutely nothing to the Chants, who already reached bowl eligibility with their biggest game of the season on deck next week against James Madison with a chance to clinch the division.
As a result, they could potentially come out a bit disinterested after likely spending a good part of the week preparing for the Dukes. And the last thing you ever want is an unfocused team the week before playing a triple-option, which requires maximum preparation, discipline and attention to detail.
Additionally, Coastal may sit out a few key players who have nagging injuries, including star quarterback Grayson McCall and his backup Jarrett Guest. Third-string signal-caller Ethan Vasko has fared pretty well in relief over the past two games, but he's a massive drop-off from McCall.
Plus, Army now has two games of film on the freshman, assuming he does indeed get another start here.
From a matchup standpoint, Coastal Carolina's run defense has struggled immensely all season.
Just take a look at some of these national rankings, which don't bode well on paper for the Chants against Army's triple-option attack, which should be able to sustain long drives and control the clock throughout.
- 98th in Line Yards
- 95th in Rush Play Success Rate
- 120th Power Success Rate
- 90th Yards Per Carry Allowed
The Black Knights aren't the biggest underdog here, but I much prefer to play service academies when catching points to laying them.
I also have no worries when it comes to Army's motivation. For one, service academies almost always show up — it's why they are 70% ATS historically in bowl games where motivation holds so much weight — but Army also needs this game for an outside shot at a bowl while exacting revenge for a 38-28 loss in Conway last season.
Pick: Army +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Notable Nugget
As an underdog of more than a field goal, Army head coach Jeff Monken owns a career 28-13-1 ATS (68.3%) record, covering by an average of over six points per game.
Out of 571 coaches in our Action Labs database, Monken is the fifth-most profitable in this spot since 2005.
