Group of 5 guru Mike Ianniello is back to betting on G5 win totals.
He’s targeting seven teams this season — four overs, three unders — including three from the Sun Belt, two from the American, one from Conference USA, and one from the Mountain West.
Read on for Ianniello’s favorite college football win totals and NCAAF picks, including seven Group of 5 bets for 2025.
UTSA Over 7.5 Wins (-140)
UTSA returns nine starters on offense, led by quarterback Owen McCown, who improved as last season progressed and should be among the best G5 quarterbacks this year.
He’s joined in the backfield by lead back Robert Henry Jr., who returns after a 700-yard season in 2024.
The Roadrunners lost some key skill position talent from last year’s team, but in comes former four-star recruit A’Marion Peterson from USC and former five-star John Emery Jr. from LSU. Emery was the No. 1 running back recruit in the 2019 class, but he never found his footing due to academic issues and two torn ACLs.
Meanwhile, UTSA’s top two receivers, top three tight ends and four of the five starting offensive linemen from last year’s team return. The Roadrunners had a borderline-elite offense last season and should again this year.
The defense won’t be nearly as good after losing a ton of talent to the portal — not a single full-time starter from last year’s team returns.
That said, the Roadrunners have some key depth pieces from last year’s team who could step into bigger roles this year, and they hit the portal hard to patch over the defensive holes.
From a schedule perspective, UTSA should lose against Texas A&M in Week 1, and it’ll be in a shootout against Texas State in Week 2.
However, I suspect the Roadrunners rip off five consecutive wins directly after that (Incarnate Word, Colorado State, Temple, Rice, North Texas).
The stretch gets tougher, but UTSA hosts Tulane, East Carolina and Army at home across the final five weeks — three tough matchups that are luckily in the Alamodome.
Also, I imagine the Roadrunners could pick up at least one road win against Charlotte or South Florida during that end-of-season stretch.
If the defense comes together enough to be league-average, the offense should power UTSA to at least an eight-win season — I think this could be the best team in the conference.
For what it’s worth, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson projects UTSA's win total at 8.8 this year.
Pick: UTSA Over 7.5 Wins (-140 · DraftKings)
Old Dominion Over 5.5 Wins (-164)
Old Dominion lost its starting quarterback two games into last season, yet the offense reached a new level.
Freshman Colton Joseph took over under center, and he amassed 22 passing and rushing touchdowns over eight starts. He’s a solid dual-threat weapon and should improve in his first year as the full-time starter.
The Monarchs are replacing most of their skill-position talent, but the offensive line should be good behind experience, size and depth.
The defense is anchored by Jason Henderson, among the best linebackers in the country. He has 439 career tackles and returns after suffering a brutal season-ending injury in Week 1 of last season.
Henderson and his running mates — Mario Thompson, Jahleel Culbreath and Koa Naotala — form the best linebacker group in the conference.
The defensive line should also be good behind Kris Trinidad on the edge.
The one question mark on the defense is in the secondary, where there’s only one returning starter (safety Mario Easterly). The rest of the group has been limited to rotating role players from past seasons, and some of them will need to step into bigger roles.
I’m a believer in head coach Ricky Rahne, especially with an up-and-coming quarterback and an elite front seven on defense.
I also suspect the Monarchs will see some positive close-game regression after six of their seven losses last year were by one possession.
The schedule broke well for Old Dominion.
The Monarchs should pick up an easy win over NC Central in nonconference play, and they open Sun Belt play with a winnable home game against Liberty.
They avoid South Alabama, Louisiana and Texas State in cross-over games, instead getting to play lower-level teams like Troy and Louisiana-Monroe. The three games with the smallest projected spread — Coastal Carolina, App State and Troy — will all be played in Norfolk.
Old Dominion has eight-win upside.
Wilson projects the Monarchs’ win total at 6.54.
Pick: Old Dominion Over 5.5 Wins (-164 · FanDuel)
Middle Tennessee Over 4.5 Wins (-150)
The Blue Raiders’ defense was horrific last season. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato threw for 3,000 yards but for only 16 touchdowns, and the run game was nonexistent.
As a result, Middle Tennessee was outgained in every game.
Last year’s top receiver (Omari Kelly) and tight end (Holden Willis) departed in the offseason, but the Raiders have some solid depth in the pass-catching corps behind Myles Butler.
While the offensive line used eight different starting combinations last season, that did produce some experience and depth. Between the returning guys and the incoming transfers, the front five could be decent in 2025.
Seven starters return on defense. The key transfer is linebacker Alex Mitchell, who amassed over 100 tackles for Chattanooga last season and should help shore up the tackling in the run game.
The defense needs a bounce-back year, but I suspect we’ll see a considerable year two bump under head coach Derek Mason, who is known for his defensive coaching chops.
Most importantly, the schedule is Charmin soft.
The Blue Raiders get to face Austin Peay, Nevada and Marshall before the end of September. They’ll also play the projected five worst teams in the conference, including newcomers Missouri State and Delaware (both games coming off a bye).
Behind an experienced quarterback and an improving defense, the Raiders should win five games and push for a bowl.
Wilson projects Middle Tennessee’s win total at 5.84.
Pick: Middle Tennessee Over 4.5 Wins (-150 · FanDuel)
Rice Over 3.5 Wins (-135)
New head coach Scott Abell will install a dynamic, spread triple-option attack operating primarily out of the gun — his Davidson Wildcats led the FCS in rushing in six of his seven years.
Redshirt Sophomore quarterback Chase Jenkins won the starting job. He’s the most mobile option on the depth chart and should fit the new scheme well.
The backfield carries will be split between Quinton Jackson and Taji Atkins, two wicked fast options who slotted in as the second and third options last season.
The Owls moved some outside receivers into slot roles, and Cincinnati transfer Aaron Turner should also get some slot targets.
I’m uncertain how good the offense will be, but I’m excited to watch.
Rice’s defense was good last year, especially against the pass. New defensive coordinator Jon Kay was the linebackers coach last year, so I suspect the Owls will continue to run the same 4-2-5 scheme.
Rice lost plenty of defensive starters to graduation, but there are options ready to step up — keep an eye on linebackers Ty Morris and Andrew Awe.
The secondary returns three guys who played sporadically last year — Marcus Williams, Daveon Hook and Plae Wyatt — so the Owls aren’t starting from scratch on the back end.
Ultimately, the defense should be strong, and the new-look offense might catch opponents off guard, especially early in the year.
Rice will beat Prairie View A&M in Week 3. After that, I project the Owls as a coin flip in games against Charlotte, FAU, UConn, UAB and North Texas, but four of those games come at home.
I think Rice can win three of those games and eclipse the 3.5-game win total.
Wilson projects Rice’s win total at 4.42.
Pick: Rice Over 3.5 Wins (-135 · BetMGM)
UNLV Under 8.5 Wins (-135)
New head coach Dan Mullen is a sharp hire. He’s a good coach.
Unfortunately for him, the Rebels lost a ton of talent, returning just two starters (one on each side of the ball). They’ll likely have eight transfers starting on offense and nine on defense.
New quarterback Alex Orji (Michigan transfer) gives me zero confidence in the passing game. Running back Jai’Den Thomas will have to carry the load after rushing for 900 yards and seven touchdowns last season.
The team brings in plenty of Power Conference transfers and talent, but I’m uncertain how well they all mesh together in Vegas.
This is a high-variance squad. A lot could go right, but plenty could go wrong. I also suspect the Rebels will see some negative turnover regression after posting a +14 mark last season.
Mullen is a good hire, but I don’t expect him to put it all together in year one, and I don’t want to degrade the job that Barry Odom and Brennan Marion did in Vegas.
Pick: UNLV Under 8.5 Wins (-135 · BetMGM)
James Madison Under 8.5 Wins (+100)
The public perception is that James Madison is the clear-cut Sun Belt favorite.
I’m saying we should pump the brakes.
James Madison faded down the stretch last season, going just 4-4 in conference play with bad losses to Louisiana-Monroe and App State.
I’m not convinced this year’s squad will be much better than last year’s.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett is recovering from a torn ACL, and I think UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka is a huge downgrade — he completed just 43% of his passes last season.
Top running back George Pettaway returns after racking up 980 yards last season, but he’s just one of three starters returning on offense. The top four pass catchers from last year departed, so the receiver room needs to be rebuilt with portal pieces.
The Dukes may also struggle to rebuild the defensive front, and they need to replace both starting cornerbacks.
Additionally, the schedule isn’t easy.
James Madison has two difficult early road trips against Louisville and Liberty. The Dukes also face three of the Sun Belt’s best in Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Texas State.
The Dukes might be the most talented team in the conference, but I’m unconvinced they’re better than last season or deserve to be the clear-cut conference favorites. They could be in the conference championship game, but they might do it at 8-4.
Pick: James Madison Under 8.5 Wins (+100 · BetMGM)
Marshall Under 4.5 Wins (+110)
Marshall failed to resign Charles Huff after winning a Sun Belt Championship and let him walk to a conference rival. Not only did they lose Huff, but 50 players entered the transfer portal after his departure, with 21 of them following Huff to Southern Miss.
How empty is the cupboard?
The Thundering Herd lost every passing yard, every rushing yard, 49 of their 65 offensive line starts, seven of their eight defensive linemen who played 50-plus snaps, and 11 of their 13 defensive backs who played 30-plus snaps last season. They return two players who caught any passes last year and one starter on defense.
New head coach Tony Gibson will have his work cut out for him.
A pair of transfers will battle for the quarterback job: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson from Syracuse and Zion Turner from Jacksonville State. Del-Rio Wilson has more talent and a stronger arm, but Turner has more experience and played under new offensive coordinator Rod Smith.
Michael Allen (UNLV) and Jo’Shon Barbie (McNeese) will be the transfer pieces competing for carries in the backfield.
Perhaps the lone positive for this team was the return of tight end Toby Payne. He was tied for the team lead last year with six touchdown passes.
Safety Jadarius Green-McKnight will be the only returning starter on defense. Gibson will look to implement his 3-3-5 scheme.
Marshall had an elite defense last year, but with all the turnover, I expect a massive step back in 2025.
The schedule is also challenging. Marshall faces Georgia in Week 1 non-conference action, and the Herd will play six of the top seven projected teams in the Sun Belt while facing only one of the bottom four projected teams.
I think this is a four-win season.
Pick: Marshall Under 4.5 Wins (+110 · BetMGM)
