Iowa makes the short trip up north to take on Minnesota in the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale.
The Hawkeyes rebounded from losing Iowa State by beating Troy 38-21 at home. Iowa has dominated Minnesota in this rivalry winning eight of the last nine meetings and has held the Gophers under 20 points in seven of the previous 10 meetings.
Cade McNamara and the Iowa offense look miles better than last season under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester, which now turns the Hawkeyes into a really dangerous team.
Minnesota has rebounded from their opening loss to North Carolina, beating Rhode Island and Nevada in back-to-back games. Minnesota's prospects for the season were low, as things are starting to get stale with PJ Fleck.
It has a tough run of games coming up as it has to play both Michigan and USC in back-to-back weeks. So if the Gophers lose here, things could continue to get worse.
Here's my Iowa vs. Minnesota prediction and pick.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 35 -108o / -112u | -142 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 35 -108o / -112u | +120 |
Spread
My Minnesota vs. Iowa best bet is with the visiting team on the spread.
Over/Under
I don't have a bet for Saturday's Big Ten over/under/
Moneyline
While I'm taking the short favorite to win this game outright, I'm going to lay the points instead of paying the juice.
Prediction
My prediction for Iowa vs. Minnesota is the Hawkeyes to cover the 2.5-point spread.
- Pick: Iowa -2.5
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview
Iowa Football
Don't look now, but Iowa has scored over 35 points in two of its three games. Granted it was against Illinois State and Troy, but there are big improvements in the Iowa offense that starts up front.
The Hawkeyes for the past three years had one of the worst offensive lines in the country, which meant they could not establish the run to set up play action.
That all has changed this season, as Iowa returned 154 starts and four seniors to its offensive line. Through three games the Hawkeyes are 23rd in terms of a PFF run blocking grade and have the leading rusher in college football.
Kaleb Johnson has accumulated 479 rushing yards, is averaging 7.9 yards per carry, as well as averaging 5.05 yards per carry after contact. Tim Lester has transformed Iowa into a more modern RPO offense with a lot of motion and fakes to confuse the defense.
With that being said, running the ball effectively has opened up the entire offense and taken the pressure off of Cade McNamara, who really hasn't been that effective this season.
Iowa's defense uncharacteristically has given up some big plays this season, which is a little bit concerning. Mostly everyone was back for Phil Parker's defense which was second in explosive plays allowed last season, but so far it ranks 25th in that category. With that being said, the Hawks should completely shut down Minnesota's offense.
Minnesota may be without Darius Taylor for this game, which is bad news against the Hawks' defensive front. Iowa has only allowed its opponents to rush for 2.3 yards per attempt through three games and is 19th in EPA/Rush allowed.
So, when teams aren't able to run the ball, they are forced to throw on one of the best secondaries in college football. Iowa has the ninth-best coverage grade, which isn't a surprise considering they return four of five starters from last year's team.
Minnesota Football
Minnesota's offense is built on running the football. Taylor has been back in the lineup for the last two games and put up big numbers last weekend against Nevada going for 124 yards on 11 carries. However, he was completely shut down in this game last season. The Hawks held him to just 59 yards on 16 carries, which completely stifled the Minnesota offense.
If Taylor or the rest of the Gophers are not able to run the ball effectively, it's going to put a lot of pressure on Max Brosmer who hasn't been that good this season. He was nearly perfect against Rhode Island, but against North Carolina and Nevada, not only was he able to eclipse 200 yards passing in either game but had a PFF passing grade below 65 with two turnover-worthy plays.
Minnesota's defense has been sensational so far this season. It's pitched back-to-back shutouts against Rhode Island and Nevada, as it's only allowing 3.4 yards per play, which is eight in the nation.
The reason for that is, that the secondary has been elite, ranking second in passing success rate allowed. However, in this game, the Gophers have to stop the run. Rhode Island and Nevada couldn't run the ball at all against them, but North Carolina was able to have some success averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
One concerning thing for Minnesota in this game is getting Johnson down on first contact. The Gophers are 73rd in terms of a PFF tackling grade, so if Johnson can break tackles and get into the second level, he's going to have a big game.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Minnesota match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 14 | [0]0 |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 15 | |
Minnesota Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 27 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 13 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 17 | 73 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 38 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 22 | 83 |
| Middle 8 | 59 | 17 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (101) | 32.2 (128) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (28) | 56% (55) |
How to Bet My Iowa vs. Minnesota Pick
This game sets up to be a defensive slugfest, but in reality, it comes down to which team can run the ball more effectively. While Iowa has given up some big plays in the passing game, it's number one in the country in rushing explosiveness allowed. So, if the Hawks can shut down Taylor, Brosmer isn't beating a top-five secondary.
Minnesota has been really good against the run this season and returns almost everyone on its defensive front. However, there are real concerns with getting Johnson down on first contact given the way they've been tackling. Omarion Hampton forced 12 missed tackles against Minnesota in Week 1, so there are some real concerns with the Gopherrs shutting down the nation's leading rusher.
Iowa has dominated this rivalry, as Kirk Ferentz has beaten Fleck in six of seven meetings, with the only loss being last year when Iowa legitimately had the worst quarterback in the country under center.
The Hawkeyes defense gives them a significant edge in this game, so I like the value on the Hawkeyes a -2.5.
Pick: Iowa -2.5
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How to Watch Minnesota vs. Iowa
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Minnesota-Iowa Betting Trends
- 88% of the tickets generated and 83% of the money are targeted for Iowa to cover.
- 63% of the bets and 88% of the money is placed towards the Under.
- 47% of the tickets and 69% of the money is aimed at Minnesota moneyline.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Weather
