Welcome to Friday Night Lights in Kennesaw, Georgia.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (1-3) will open up the action on Friday, Oct. 4, by taking on the Kennesaw State Owls (0-4) in a Conference USA clash. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Jacksonville State enters as a 16.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 49.
So, where does the betting value lie in this Friday night Conference USA college football clash? Let's dive into my Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 4.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Kennesaw State Owls Prediction
My Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the under, with the best line available at bet365.
- Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State Pick: Under 49.5
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Odds, Spread, Line
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
| Kennesaw State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Point Spread: Jacksonville State -17 · Kennesaw State +17
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Over/Under: 49.5 Total Points
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Moneyline: Jacksonville State ML -800 · Kennesaw State ML +550
Jacksonville State Football vs Kennesaw State Football Preview
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Defense Can Get Pushed Around
The Gamecocks' offense has awakened over the past few weeks, scoring 34 and 44 points in back-to-back games. They racked up 520 yards on offense last week against Southern Miss and cruised to a 44-7 victory.
The Gamecocks are coming off of an improbable run in 2023, and their 1-3 record does not mirror what they had in mind for year two in the FBS.
Luckily for them, this week features a cupcake matchup on the road against the Owls.
Quarterback Tyler Huff has decent numbers thus far but has struggled to protect the football, with five touchdown passes to four interceptions.
Huff was handed the keys to the offense after quarterback Logan Smothers got injured in a Week 1 matchup against Coastal Carolina. Smothers played last week but only entered the game on special rushing packages.
The offense prides itself on its aerial attack, as Jacksonville State ranks 36th nationally in Pass Success Rate and Finishing Drives. It should have no issues throwing the ball all over the Owls' secondary, although it runs the ball 58% of the time despite limited ground-and-pound effectiveness.
The Gamecocks' defense has been horrific, but last week's game was encouraging. They rank 66th nationally in defensive Havoc but outside the bottom 120 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Owls' lone bright spot in their defense is in the trench, where they rank 22nd in Defensive Line Yards.
The Owls' offense is horrific, but it would not be surprising to see the Gamecocks' defense pushed around a bit. I expect the Gamecocks to win comfortably, but the defense is causing me concern, so I cannot lay any points with them here.
Kennesaw State Owls Betting Preview: It Can't Get Worse, Can It?
The Owls were not expected to be good this season, given that they are transitioning from the FCS.
Still, they've been a complete catastrophe thus far.
Digging through their statistics and analytics, I expected poor numbers. Still, it's much worse than I could imagine.
The Owls have five players on the roster with over 20 carries, and none have averaged above 3 YPC. Quarterback Davis Bryson has one touchdown and four interceptions with a 52% completion rate.
Their total EPA on offense is -64.44, which ranks 132nd nationally.
It can't get worse than that, can it?
Oh, yes, it does.
The Owls rank outside the top 120 in the following offensive metrics:
- Rush Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Pass Success Rate
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
The Gamecocks' defense has been exposed in multiple games thus far, but that is against respectable FBS opponents. The talent discrepancy between these two teams is so far off that the Gamecocks might appear to be the greatest 1-3 team of all time.
Defensively, the numbers get better.
The Owls have been solid against the run, ranking 63rd in EPA per Rush allowed. And the defensive line has not been pushed around that much, as they rank 22nd in Defensive Line Yards.
They rank 55th in PFF's Tackling grades, and their Special Teams Unit has been a top-60 group. If the Gamecocks try to run as much as they typically like to, it may be a tougher objective than many would perceive.
The problem is their secondary is an outright disaster.
The Owls' allow their opponents to score touchdowns at will whenever they cross the 40-yard line, so it is tough to get behind a team that has a non-existing offense to succumb to their defensive issues.
Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State match up statistically:
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Kennesaw State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 90 | 113 | |
Kennesaw State Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 134 | 130 |  |
| Line Yards | 133 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 130 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 113 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 21 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 94 | 60 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 114 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.3 (8) | 29.2 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (39) | 59% (29) |
How to Bet My Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Pick
I am stunned that 94% of the public is running to back the Owls on Friday night, but I won't be joining that party.
The under is the best play in the game, and I'll map exactly how to cash that ticket.
The Gamecocks want to run the ball most of the time and ranked eighth nationally in seconds per play. But they also rank 83rd in Havoc allowed and 88th in Line Yards, and that's a bad formula against a half-decent Kennesaw State defensive line.
Additionally, the Owls' languid pace and rush-heavy offense will drain the clock, especially against a weak Jacksonville State rush defense. I don't think the Owls will score much, but their extended offensive possessions will help create a lower-scoring game.
Lastly, the Owls' special teams advantage will help immensely. They should pin the Gamecocks deep on most of their possessions, forcing them to put together longer scoring drives.
Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48.5)
How to Watch Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State
| Location: | Fifth Third Stadium, Kennesaw, GA |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 4 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
College Football Betting Trends for Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State
- Kennesaw State is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
- Kennesaw State games are 4-0 to the Under
- Jacksonville State is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
- Jacksonville State games are 3-1 to the Over
Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State Weather
