Kansas State vs TCU Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
While Texas and Oklahoma get invites to the SEC, TCU and Kansas State will make the journey to Arlington to compete for the Big 12 Championship.
Both teams had double-digit odds to win the conference in the preseason, as the Wildcats have not won the Big 12 since 2012.
Winning in the postseason is nothing new for head coach Chris Klieman, who racked up four FCS national titles at North Dakota State.
The Horned Frogs last won the conference championship in 2014 in a co-championship with Baylor. TCU dominated the Mountain West before transitioning to the Big 12 in the 2012 season, making this game a chance to secure a solo Power Five conference title.
First-year head coach Sonny Dykes exceeded all expectations by becoming bowl eligible, as the Horned Frogs are now playing for a conference and national title with house money.
Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats survived a muck of Big 12 teams all sandwiched for second place to secure a spot in the conference championship.
Kansas State escaped a late Texas rally in the standings, thanks in part to a key TCU victory in Austin. Klieman's work to get Kansas State to the title game is remarkable.
Transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez had a career season from a turnover-worthy play perspective, throwing only a single interception. Injury struck the quarterback and allowed third-year Wildcat Will Howard to resume duties under center.
Chris Klieman says there is an "outside chance" that Adrian Martinez will be healthy enough to play against TCU on Saturday.
Will Howard will start. But Martinez could serve as the backup or maybe even have a special package to run against the Horned Frogs.
— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) November 29, 2022
While the dual-threat playbook is limited without Martinez, Kansas State is in the Big 12 title game because Howard threw 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in key situations this season.
All-purpose back Deuce Vaughn and wide receiver Malik Knowles anchor the offense. At 2.2 yards per route run, Knowles has been the most explosive weapon on the Wildcats offense.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman abandoned the four-man front for a 3-3-5 this preseason.
The results have not panned out from a Success Rate or Havoc perspective, but Kansas State has morphed into a stingy defense when opponents get into scoring position. The Wildcats allow 3.3 points to opposing offenses that cross the 40-yard line.
Kansas State has become elite in eliminating explosiveness in passing downs thanks to the cornerback play of Josh Hayes and Ekow Boye-Doe, who lead the team in pass breakups.
TCU Horned Frogs
No team since 2016 has run the gauntlet of the Big 12 round-robin schedule with an undefeated record. TCU has been the best comeback story of the season but must face all the pressure with a national semifinal berth in the balance.
The Horned Frogs continue to be one of the most explosive offensive units in FBS, ranking one-two with Tennessee in long plays from scrimmage.
Quarterback Max Duggan continues to put up a season worthy of the Heisman, shaving his turnover-worthy play rate in half from 2021.
Max Duggan is firing darts into the smallest windows pic.twitter.com/LYILHVztBt
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 26, 2022
A number of explosive playmakers give TCU a chance to score from any down and distance.
Kendre Miller has led the ground game, posting 3.7 yards after contact and 19 explosive runs on the season. Wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Taye Barber have been hot reads for Duggan, but both nursed injuries against Iowa State.
In the case of Johnston, Dykes revealed the wide receiver is looking healthier.
The unsung hero down the conference stretch has been the defense. The Horned Frogs have allowed 30 points just once since Oct. 15, limiting Texas and Iowa State to 24 points combined.
Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie's 3-3-5 scheme has not been a leader in Havoc, but the Horned Frogs' ability to stop opponents on third down and in the red zone has been a prominent factor in the Big 12 Championship run.
Kansas State vs TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and TCU match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 73 |  |
| Line Yards | 54 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 101 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
TCU Offense vs Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 36 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 24 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 22 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 27 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 54 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 43 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (99) | 27.5 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 60.1% (20) | 55.7% (54) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics
Kansas State vs TCU Betting Pick
There are plenty of checkboxes when teams play a second time in a season for a conference championship.
The primary question is how the original game played out in terms of Success Rate — the most reliable factor to repeat. Next is mid-game and post-game adjustments, pointing to whether the team bettered themselves after the original matchup.
With those checkpoints above, TCU is the team that has greatly benefitted since its victory over Kansas State.
After racing out to an 18-point lead at halftime, Kansas State didn't score in the second half after Gillespie put adjustments in place on the defensive side of the ball. The Wildcats posted a dud of a half, missing two field goals and throwing a pair of interceptions.
Since that halftime, the TCU defense has allowed just six touchdowns in seven second halves. The season-long numbers don't paint an accurate picture of a defense that kept Texas from scoring an offensive touchdown and held Texas Tech to 139 passing yards.
The play for this game comes on the under, as the TCU defense contributed to three consecutive unders before the offense put up 62 points against Iowa State in Week 13.
Kansas State has the propensity to limit explosive plays, which may result in more punts than expected. Once Gillespie makes adjustments to the scheme and personnel wrinkles from Howard, points will be at a premium.
Investors that are looking to hedge large tickets greater than 12-1 have the option to buy the other side.
A Kansas State wager on the spread gives TCU futures tickets a chance to double. As for futures on the Wildcats, there are shops posting -130 or better to lock in profit.
Pick: Under 62 or Better |
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