The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-3, 1-1 Conference USA) head west to Las Cruces, New Mexico, to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (1-5, 0-3) on Tuesday night. This Conference USA battle is set to kick off from Aggie Memorial Stadium at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Louisiana Tech is a 12-point road favorite in a game with an over/under set at 49.5 points. This is expected to be a comfortable win for the Bulldogs, but the home team may be able to put up a fight.
Let’s dive into my Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 15.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Pick: New Mexico State +12
My Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Line
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -470 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +360 |
- Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Spread: Louisiana Tech -12
- Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Over/Under: 49.5 Total Points
- Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Moneyline: Louisiana Tech ML -470 · New Mexico State ML +360
Louisiana Tech Football vs New Mexico State Aggies Preview
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Preview: A Limited Offense
Louisiana Tech had gotten off to a rough start but picked up their its conference win to improve to 2-3 on the year after a 48-21 drubbing of Middle Tennessee last week.
The Bulldogs impressed on offense in this game, putting up a 98th-percentile Success Rate, 97th-percentile EPA per play and 7.6 yards per play. However, they're still only 121st in Offensive Success Rate and 116th in EPA per Play to this point in the year.
Diving in deeper, Louisiana Tech ranks 122nd in Rushing Success Rate and 130th in EPA per Rush this season. It passes at the 45th-highest rate and sits 107th in Passing Success Rate and 85th in EPA per Dropback.
Evan Bullock has been the major difference for this offense for the last couple of weeks. Since taking over under center, Bullock has completed 71% of his passes with 557 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
He's averaging 0.17 EPA per Dropback this season compared to the -0.16 EPA per Dropback that Jack Turner put up when he was starting.
Bullock looked fantastic against Middle Tennessee last weekend, averaging 0.63 EPA per play with 273 passing yards and five touchdowns.
Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive ninth in Defensive Success Rate and 13th in EPA per Play Allowed. Its easy schedule has helped to this point, though, as it's still ranked as the 106th-best defense, per SP+.
The Bulldogs are well-rounded on defense, ranking 19th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
However, they come in at 110th in PFF coverage grade, 125th in PFF pass-rush grade and 97th in PFF run defense grade, so the film-based metrics don’t seem too fond of this defense despite their raw success numbers.
LA Tech has only played one top-100 SP+ FBS offense, which is the 60th-ranked NC State Wolfpack. We'll need to see this defense perform against better competition going forward to believe in its production.
Luckily for the Bulldogs, this uptick in competition won’t take place this week.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Looking For A Glimmer of Hope
New Mexico State has been brutalized as of late. The Aggies are 1-5 on the season and 0-3 in conference play, dropping their last five games with their only win coming over an FCS opponent in Southeast Missouri State.
NMSU primarily sticks to the ground attack, averaging the 28th-most rushing plays per game despite trailing most of the time. It ranks 67th in Success Rate and 81st in EPA per Play on the ground.
Moving the ball through the air has been the biggest struggle, as the Aggies come in all the way down at 131st in Passing Success Rate and 122nd in EPA per Dropback.
Overall, this offense ranks just 117th in Success Rate and 114th in EPA per Play while entering as the nation's 125th-best unit, per SP+.
Things have also been tough on the defensive end. The Aggies rank 105th in Success Rate Allowed and 118th in EPA per Play Allowed this season.
They're 40th in Passing Success Rate Allowed but allow explosive plays often, ranking 82nd in EPA per Dropback Allowed.
Most of their ability to defend the pass comes from the secondary, as the Aggies are 86th in PFF coverage grade but 115th in pass-rushing grade.
New Mexico State's run defense has been especially putrid, ranking 123rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 127th in EPA per Rush Allowed. Luckily for the Aggies, Louisiana Tech doesn't run the ball as often as it passes.
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 127 | |
New Mexico State Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 130 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 73 |  |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 31 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 110 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 87 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 52 | 33 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (49) | 27.3 (66) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (89) | 59% (36) |
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Pick and Best Bet
I really like what Louisiana Tech has done on offense since inserting Bullock as the starting quarterback.
The Bulldogs looked fantastic against Middle Tennessee, and New Mexico State’s defense hasn’t been stellar this season either. Their coverage has been solid, but I don’t think the Aggies have enough of a pass rush to disrupt this game.
New Mexico State’s rushing game has been moderately effective this year, and I’d expect it to stick to it. Louisiana Tech’s defense likely is not as good as the overall numbers show, but it has feasted on bad offenses like NMSU all season.
While I think Louisiana Tech is the better team in this matchup and looked great last week, this is probably too large of a number to lay on the road.
This feels somewhat gross — like many midweek Conference USA games — but I’m going to roll with New Mexico State covering as a home underdog.
I’d take the Aggies at 11.5 and would bet them down to +10.5. I think they keep this game within a couple possessions.
Pick: New Mexico State +12 (Play to +10.5)
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 15 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Betting Trends
- 58% of bets and 51% of the money are on Louisiana Tech to cover the spread.
- 98% of bets and 99% of the money are on the over.
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Weather
