It's a loaded Conference USA on Tuesday evening, as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-4, 2-2 CUSA) travel to Huntsville, Texas, to take on the Sam Houston Bearkats (6-2, 3-1).
The Bearkats narrowly defeated FIU last week, 10-7, as starting quarterback Hunter Watson did not play due to a concussion. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs beat UTEP, 14-10, in an ugly home win, putting up a nasty 258 yards on offense.
Sam Houston will be a big step up in competition, so it'll be interesting to see how head coach Sonny Cumbie's team responds.
Oddsmakers have Sam Houston as a -10.5 home favorite with the over/under sitting at 45.5.
Let’s jump right into my Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Sam Houston Bearkats Prediction
- Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Pick: Under 45.5
My Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech best bet is for both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Odds, Line, Spread
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Spread: Sam Houston -10
- Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 45.5 Total Points
- Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Moneyline: Sam Houston ML -425 · Louisiana Tech ML +320
Louisiana Tech Football vs. Sam Houston Football Preview
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Preview: Improvement at QB
The Bulldogs barely scraped by against UTEP last week, and it's concerning that their offense has continued to struggle. The Bulldogs scored 30 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago but still lost the game in overtime.
Quarterback Evan Bullock has been an upgrade over Jack Turner, throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions, but the offensive line has been a disaster. In fact, Bullock has been sacked 14 times.
Staying on the offensive line, the Bulldogs' offensive philosophy essentially abandons the running game. They're near dead last in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Play on the ground.
It's been an outright disaster, primarily due to the lack of running lines the offensive front still needs to provide. I expect few rushing attempts here, as the uptempo approach will rely on the passing attack.
It would be fine if the Bulldogs had a successful aerial attack, but they rank 108th in Passing Success Rate. Granted, those metrics are based on both Turner and Bullock, but the matchup is tough against a solid Bearkats secondary.
The bright side is that defense is their strength. The matchup against the Kats seems manageable on paper, but they're a much superior offensive team with Watson under center.
The Bulldogs rank 11th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 26th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. They've been an outstanding unit on third down and have created extremely tough situations for opponents from a distance perspective.
Sam Houston's offense has struggled on third down, so LA Tech has the clear edge in that category. Cumbie's team also ranks 13th in available yards, so the defense has been impressive.
My lone concern is that the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to New Mexico State two weeks ago, so how legitimate is their overall defense? However, the data speaks for itself, and there are encouraging signs that they can hold their own against the Bearkats.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Defense is Key
Sam Houston's offense looked wholly lost with Watson out against FIU last week.
With him returning to the lineup, the Bearkats get a significant offensive upgrade, and they'll need him for a tough assignment. The offense could have better Success Rate metrics, but it's an improved group from a season ago.
The Kats were the laughingstock of college football offenses last season, but now they've suddenly found an identity. They love running uptempo and leaning on their ground attack with Watson under center.
Their offense has improved because it has been effective on the ground and through the air. Although the offense involves a lot of running, its aerial attack has been above average.
However, as much as I like their offensive edge in the matchup, they will struggle against a tough Bulldogs defense.
Defensively, I love the matchup for the Kats. Despite Bullock’s effectiveness for the Bulldogs offense, it’s been a real struggle for them.
Sam Houston has been excellent against the run, and LA Tech can’t run the ball at all. The Bearkats will be challenged through the air, but they have the talent on the back end to hold their opposition at bay.
I don’t expect as much success for the Bulldogs offense as many may think, especially after last week’s performance. The Bulldogs couldn’t score on a struggling UTEP defense, which makes me believe the Kats' stop unit is primed for a big day.
Even though I lean toward Sam Houston, 10.5 points is far too many to swallow here. However, its defense should continue to find success against the Bulldogs' nonexistent run game.
Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 130 |  |
| Pass Success | 114 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 112 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 27 | |
Sam Houston Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 34 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 96 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 73 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 132 |
| Middle 8 | 29 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (57) | 27.8 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (97) | 64% (20) |
How to Bet My Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Pick
The most apparent play to me is the under. A lot of public money has come in on the over, but I don’t see a world where this becomes a high-scoring slugfest.
Both offenses run at a fast tempo, but it’s a tough matchup for both units. The Bulldogs defense has been excellent and should hold its own — even with Watson playing for the Bearkats.
On the other side, Sam Houston's secondary has been strong, which is perfect for combating the Bulldogs' pass-heavy offense. Ultimately, I envision a lot of longer drives but fewer touchdowns on the board.
Sam Houston should prevail, but I don’t trust it enough to lay the large number. It's the under all the way for me.
Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 45)
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Louisiana Tech heads to Huntsville, Texas, to take on Sam Houston on Tuesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Betting Trends
- 28% of bets and 72% of the money are on Sam Houston to cover the spread
- 96% of bets and 81% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Weather
