NC State vs Tennessee Odds, Spread
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -105 | 60 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 60 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Welcome to our expert debate for College Football Week 2 and our NC State vs Tennessee odds and picks for which team will cover the spread, which is currently Tennessee -10 after opening closer to -5 before Week 1.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Why NC State Can Cover the Spread
I will not overreact to Week 1. I will not overreact to Week 1. I will not overreact to Week 1.
As I sit here alone in my office repeating this gospel to me, I’m reminded that NC State still upgraded at quarterback in the offseason (from Brennan Armstrong to McCall), still features an explosive WR1 (Kevin Conception), still boasts a solid RB1 (Jordan Waters), and still has nearly 100 career starts on the offensive line.
Sure, the Wolfpack looked dreadful against Western Carolina for much of the game. But McCall missed some wide-open throws, the defense dropped a few interceptions – leading to a -2 turnover margin – and the offense had a touchdown called back due to a penalty.
Furthermore, they were missing a few key defensive starters. Nickel safety Ja’Had Carter sat out the season opener but should return this week. Linebacker Caden Fordham was ejected on the game's first play for targeting.
More importantly, the Wolfpack were likely looking ahead to this monster matchup with Tennessee. They looked sleepy, and I bet they wanted to keep the playbook close to their chest.
Despite these struggles, the Wolfpack outgained Western Carolina 522 total yards to 361 and scored three big touchdowns in the final quarter to win by 17. They generated .22 EPA per Play (83rd percentile) while holding the Catamounts to -0.09 (30th percentile).
The big difference? Chunk plays. The Wolfpack ripped off 10 explosive plays, including six through the air and four on the ground, suitable for a 14% explosive play rate (93rd percentile). Their fourth quarter included a 35-yard touchdown pass from McCall to Conception and a 50-yard touchdown run from Waters.
That Explosiveness could be key on Saturday. Tennessee ranked 91st in Explosiveness allowed last season, and the Vols lost all seven defensive back starters from that unit, including three to the NFL and three to other Power 4 teams. That is a boatload of talent.
Tennessee looked fantastic last week, and Iamaleava might be the real deal. Still, I return to my initial point:
I will not overreact to Week 1. I will not overreact to Week 1. I will not overreact to Week 1.
They beat Chattanooga by 66. Who cares? It doesn’t mean anything.
However, the public and the market reacted to these two differing Week 1 results against FCS competition, with this line jumping from 4.5 before Week 1 to nearly double digits now.
That’s an overreaction, and I will not overreact to Week 1.
NC State should look better on defense with some key pieces back, and the McCall-Conception-Waters trio can exploit Tennessee’s highly vulnerable defensive backfield.
I’m willing to take a shot with the Pack at over a touchdown.
Why Tennessee Can Cover the Spread
I want to start my handicap by saying the ACC might be a trash conference. They have started the year 8-5 against FBS teams and just 9-10-1 against the spread.
NC State is one of those teams that failed to cover. After trailing in the fourth quarter, the Wolfpack needed a late push to beat lowly Western Carolina.
The biggest issues for the Wolfpack appeared to be on the lines of scrimmage.
Western Carolina rushed for 6.2 yards per carry against the defense. The Catamounts managed nine tackles for loss against the offense, pressuring Grayson McCall on more than 20% of dropbacks.
That spells disaster against a Tennessee front that is among the nation’s best. James Pearce Jr. is an All-American off the edge and projects as a top-five pick in the NFL Draft. Defensive tackles Omari Thomas and Omarr Norman-Lott are forces in the middle.
Tennessee finished ninth nationally last year with 41 sacks and sixth with 101 tackles for loss. I am a big fan of McCall coming up from the Group of 5, but it’ll be a long night if he’s scrambling away from an SEC defense for 60 minutes.
Especially with Nico Iamaleava on the other side. The uber-talented five-star recruit looked the part in his debut as the Volunteers starter. Chattanooga is a top-10 FCS program, and Tennessee lit the Mocs up for a very nice 69-3 win, which was behind Iamaleava’s performance. He went 22-for-28 passing for 314 yards and three touchdowns, making it look easy out there.
He is 6-foot-6 with a big arm and terrific athleticism to go along with it. He can make any throw on the field, has elite escapability, and is lethal out of the pocket, either throwing on the run or taking off and scrambling. In his first career start, Iamaleava ran for three touchdowns against an elite Iowa defense in the Citrus Bowl.
There is a chance that Iamaleava is the best quarterback in the country, or at least very much in the discussion. I recommend you start betting on him now before everybody realizes it.
Why NC State is the Better Bet
McGrath: Hey Mike…
You should not overreact to Week 1.
No need to crown Iamaleava yet. Chattanooga was an average FCS pass defense last season (2,525 total yards). He’s not the Heisman because he hit the 300-yard mark in a game that does not matter.
You can’t deny that NC State will be a step up in competition, especially once it gets some much-needed defensive reinforcements back. Tony Gibson is a solid defensive coordinator who runs a complex scheme that can easily confuse young, inexperienced quarterbacks – i.e., Nico.
Gibson will scheme Havoc (15th nationally last season), bringing disguised pressure (33 sacks last year, 33rd nationally) to force and capitalize on mistakes (17 interceptions, fourth nationally) – they finished top-20 nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed for a reason.
The Pack could feast against a Tennessee offensive line that, while experienced, ranked 72nd in Pro Football Focus’ Pass Blocking grades last year. McCall is a veteran who generally avoids mistakes.
If Iamaleava makes one or two crucial ones under pressure, it’ll be hard for the Vols to cover a moderately large spread.
I agree that the Tennessee front seven is talented. And the key to this game is if NC State’s offensive line – which underperformed last year – can hold up.
I’m hopeful that with four returning starters behind tackle Anthony Belton, they can show improvement after a rough, sleepy season opener. If the front five get a push, Tennessee’s shaky, vulnerable, ultimately weak secondary will get exposed.
At the minimum, the game could devolve into a shootout, and the Vols’ secondary will leave the back door wide open for 60 minutes.
Why Tennessee is the Better Bet
Ianniello: I love McCall. I backed him countless times at Coastal Carolina. He is one of the best Group of 5 quarterbacks ever. I do not want to say anything bad about him, but the nature of this article forces me to poke holes.
Grayson, I love you, and I’m sorry.
McCall was extremely efficient running Jamey Chadwell’s hybrid-option, RPO offense. In three years under Chadwell at Coastal, McCall had 77 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. He never had a completion percentage lower than 68.8%.
Last season, in a new offensive system, McCall had just 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He completed 67.4% of his passes. He averaged 8.6 yards per attempt with an 8.9 average depth of target. All marks were career worsts.
McCall has never been the best pure passer and is known more for his efficiency than his ability to take the top off a defense. Last year, he posted a measly 3.8% big-time throw rate. In the opener against an FCS team, he had just one big-time throw and one turnover-worthy play.
Tennessee’s biggest weakness is on the back end, but McCall doesn’t have the arm to take advantage and take the top off this Volunteers defense.
NC State put up a lot of yardage by rushing for over 200 yards at 6.2 yards per carry. But it won’t be able to do that against this Vols front seven. Tennessee ranked in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed last year, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry (12th nationally).
Only three teams managed to rush for more than 150 yards on Tennessee all last year, and NC State doesn’t have the boys up front to buck that trend.
NC State Football Spread: Why Wolfpack Will Cover
McGrath: McCall can’t take the top off a defense?
Coastal ranked 12th nationally in explosiveness last year, generating 31 30-plus yard passing plays (ninth nationally) and 16 40-plus yard passing plays (eighth nationally). He generated seven big-time throws for over 600 yards on passes 20-plus air yards downfield with two touchdowns and no picks (91.1 Pro Football Focus passing grades).
If anything, he was actually better when pushing the ball way downfield and between the numbers.
Tennessee allowed only seven passing attempts 20-plus yards down the middle of the field last year, which is impressive. But all seven were completed for 188 yards and a touchdown, suitable for the highest EPA per Play allowed on such throws (2.1).
The Vols lost everyone from that unit, and they’re now relying on three transfers at safety, including two from lower-tier Group of Five programs (Middle Tennessee, Temple, Oregon State) — the defensive backfield might be really vulnerable between the numbers.
And the Vols better hope they stuff everything at the point of attack. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae looks to be adjusting his offense to McCall with more pro-style play-action (20% rate last week) and RPO (37% rate last week) stuff.
Tennessee ranked 118th nationally in play-action completion percentage allowed last season (69%) — and, again, is now considerably weaker. If NC State gets any push, this game could get interesting.
Remember my introductory line about a NC State touchdown against Western Carolina getting called back on a penalty? Check out this play-action flea flicker that McCall sent 30 yards downfield.
Folks, McCall can make these throws, and Tennesee will let him.
Sure, I’m worried the Pack won’t get anything going on Standard Downs. But the Vols weren’t world-beaters in Passing Downs last season (66th in Success Rate allowed), and McCall only needs to hit a few big ones to keep the Pack within the overinflated number for 60 minutes.
Tennessee Football Spread: Why Volunteers Will Cover
Ianniello: I’m not overreacting to one game for Iamaleava.
He was one of the most talented recruits coming out of high school. He became a Heisman candidate the minute he enrolled in Tennessee's system that turned Hendon Hooker into a Heisman candidate and Joe Milton into an NFL quarterback.
I’m glad you mentioned Gibson as a solid defensive coordinator — because he is.
And while he runs a complex scheme on defense, Josh Heupel runs a complex scheme on offense. He runs a Baylor system that Gibson faced thrice while he was the defensive coordinator at West Virginia. Gibson's Mountaineers allowed 73, 27 and 62 points in those three games against the Bears.
When linebacker Payton Wilson graduated, NC State’s defense lost its heart and soul. He led the team in tackles, tackles for loss, and interceptions, and he was the team runner-up in sacks.
Tennessee’s offense is going to eat. I already said how good I think Iamaleava is, but it’s hard not to be with this cast of receivers he has around him. Last year's top receiver, Squirrel White, returned, as did Dont’e Thornton and the uber-talented Bru McCoy. They also added Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell to form one of the deepest receiver rooms in the country.
While the passing attack gets all the headlines, the Vols also ranked 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (204.9) and seventh in yards per carry (5.5) last season.
Jaylen Wright is gone, but his backup, Dylan Sampson, rushed for over 600 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He led the team with seven rushing touchdowns in 2023 and picked up where he left off, tallying three scores in the season opener.
Tanner better hope NC State’s offensive line holds up and McCall avoids mistakes. The Wolfpack must score plenty to keep up with the Vols.
Closing Arguments for NC State vs Tennessee Spread
McGrath: Bet NC State +9
One more time for the folks in the back:
I will not overreact to Week 1.
The market has way overreacted, pushing the line to nearly double digits. That’s out of control when our Action Network power ratings make the spread Tennessee -7.5, College Football Insiders make it Tennessee -3.5, and Jeff Sagarin makes it Tennessee -6.
McCall and Conception can and should exploit Tennessee’s inexperienced, undermanned secondary. Even if they’re down two scores late, the Pack should have no issues back-dooring the number against the Vols’ doomed prevent defense.
Even if NC State can’t get anything going on the ground or underneath, it’ll create enough explosives to stay within 10.
Ianniello: Bet Tennessee -9
There's a chance we look back in a few months and realize we got to bet on the best quarterback in the country laying single digits against a middle-of-the-road defense.
Tennessee’s offense has weapons all over the field and will score on everybody. Tennessee’s defensive front is terrific and will be a big problem for a suspect NC State offensive line.
This game is also being played in a neutral location. Even though Charlotte might seem like a big advantage for the Wolfpack, Bank of America Stadium is just 3.5 hours from Knoxville – only an hour further than Raleigh.
Say what you want about the lunatic Tennessee fans, but they travel. I expect this crowd to be a 50/50 split, and we should hear plenty of Rocky Top as the Vols pull away when NC State has no answer for Iamaleava.
