We continue the college football Week 9 betting slate with my five evening spots, featuring Oregon State vs. Arizona and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 9, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 32-25-0 +3.38 units (56.1%)
- Overall: 77-45-1 +26.60 units (63.1%)
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Stuckey's Saturday Night Week 9 Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:30 p.m. | Boise State -4 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kentucky +3.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Cincinnati +7.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Arizona State +6.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Arizona +3.5 |
Boise State -4 vs. Wyoming
5:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS2
This sets up as an ideal buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup of two Mountain West teams coming off bye weeks.
The Cowboys have surprised many with a 5-2 start, but they only have a net scoring margin of +5 on the season.
The Pokes have a pair of underwhelming wins over New Mexico and Portland State by 9 and 14, respectively, plus three other victories by a combined 10 points with the help of turnovers, special teams touchdowns and opposing quarterback injuries.
Meanwhile, Boise State lost at Washington understandably, but the Broncos' other three losses came by a combined six points on a Hail Mary, last-second field goal and game-changing blocked field goal returned for an 80-yard touchdown against Memphis.
Additionally, Boise got much healthier during its bye week. Running back George Holani should return to provide a dynamic 1-2 punch with Ashton Jeanty, the best back in the country that too many don't know about. He'll be playing on Sundays soon.
Plus, the offensive line will be fully healthy for the first time since fall camp.
It also looks like Taylen Green will get the start at quarterback. Hopefully, he gets most of the snaps, and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan utilizes his rushing ability, but I'm assuming we still see some type of rotation with fellow signal-caller (and more pure dropback passer) Maddux Madsen.
Lastly, from a matchup perspective, Wyoming can't really take advantage of major Boise secondary deficiencies from a unit that had to replace an abundance of high-end talent in the offseason.
Boise is also due a few bounces, while the opposite is true for Wyoming. With a very similar schedule difficulty, the Broncos have a -5 turnover margin, while the Pokes sit at +5.
After blowing a 30-10 lead with under five minutes to go at Colorado State, the bye came at a perfect time for Boise State, which has bounced back nicely from horrid losses in recent seasons.
I've also heard glowing reports about the state of the locker room and how practice has gone during the off-week.
Ultimately, I believe Boise bounces back in a big way, continuing its dominance over a Wyoming program it has owned with a 16-1 head-to-head edge, including a perfect 8-0 record at home with those wins coming by an average of just under 17 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Wyoming has a very strong home-field advantage for a multitude of reasons. However, since 2005, the Pokes are just 15-25 ATS (37.5%) on the road in league play as a favorite or underdog of less than a touchdown.
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Kentucky +3.5 vs. Tennessee
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Tennessee finds itself in one of the toughest spots of the weekend. The Vols will make the trip to Lexington for their second straight SEC road game after a hard-fought loss against Alabama that came immediately after an emotional, close win against Texas A&M in Knoxville.
After facing two extremely physical opponents, fatigue could certainly bite Josh Heupel's squad on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Kentucky should be much fresher after a sorely needed bye week. The Cats should also be much healthier overall with team captain and top offensive lineman Kenneth Horsey expected to now be at 100% along with starting linebacker Trevin Wallace and key depth piece Keeshawn Silver in the interior of the defensive line after both missed the Georgia game.
Most importantly, I have heard some positive reports surrounding Devin Leary, who had been dealing with a mechanical issue caused by the pectoral injury he suffered last season at NC State.
He may really benefit from the break, so you could see more juice from this anemic passing offense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass, completion rate and Passing Success Rate if Leary's accuracy improves.
It will also help if the wide receivers can curtail the drop issues against a Tennessee secondary that could be without top cornerback Kamal Hadden, who left last week's game with an injury.
The offensive line also has dealt with a lot of shuffling up front, so that group could also look better following the bye.
Plus, this is a good matchup for the Kentucky defense, which ranks in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate and yards per carry (3.1). That's paramount against an elite Tennessee rushing attack that features the three-headed monster in the backfield of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson, who have combined to average 6.0 yards per carry on over 200 attempts.
However, in Tennessee's only two road games (also against strong run defenses), it rushed only 46 times for 172 yards for an average clip of 3.7 yards. To put those numbers in context, the former would rank in the top three nationally, while the latter would fall outside the top 100.
Now, the Kentucky pass defense has been extremely vulnerable. The Wildcats still do a decent job of preventing explosive plays, but they sit in the bottom 15 in the country in Pass Success Rate.
However, I just don't trust Joe Milton to consistently move the ball through the air without costly misfires and mistakes.
These two teams do profile pretty similarly, as Kentucky also features a strong rushing attack that ranks fifth in yards per rush and ninth in EPA per Play, primarily thanks to Ray Davis, who boasts a gaudy 22.5% explosive rate on his carries.
Tennessee has a top-10 rush defense by almost every metric, but it does rank in the bottom 15 in explosiveness allowed. While the efficiency might not be there, I expect Davis to break a couple of long runs, which could decide the outcome.
Ultimately, this is a great spot to buy Kentucky after two blowout losses prior to a much-needed bye week, which, by all indications, has served the offense well. Expect some added wrinkles and more tempo from offensive coordinator Liam Coen to go along with a potential improvement in Leary's accuracy.
A healthier offensive line and wide receiver room also won't hurt matters against a potentially gassed Tennessee defense.
Meanwhile, this is a favorable matchup for a Kentucky defense that should come out with a purpose after getting embarrassed in back-to-back outings.
Notable Nugget
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has gone 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) against ranked opponents, including 8-1 (88.9%) as a favorite or underdog of a touchdown or less.
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Cincinnati +7.5 at Oklahoma State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
With this spread now moving past the key number of seven, this has become the buy-low/sell-high spot of the week.
While the Pokes have won three straight games as underdogs, the Bearcats have gone in the complete opposite direction with five straight losses. As a result, I believe this marks the bottom of the market on Cincy and the top on Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys have undoubtedly looked much better on offense since the bye week, which has sparked their three-game winning streak. Head coach Mike Gundy finally decided to stick with Alan Bowman at quarterback instead of juggling three different signal-callers, and the Pokes changed the running scheme while leaning more on Ollie Gordon.
Over the past four contests, the explosive sophomore back has rushed 97 times for 707 yards and seven total touchdowns for a gaudy average of 7.3 yards per carry.
In comparison, over the first three games of 2023, Gordon tallied only 19 total attempts for 109 yards. He's gone from essentially six carries to 25 per game.
However, even with the offensive improvement, I simply can't get to this number, especially in a potential letdown spot. The high-riding Pokes could come out a bit flat with a potential look-ahead to the final installment of Bedlam next Saturday in Stillwater.
Also, the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. During its past three upset victories, the rejuvenated offense has averaged 486 yards per game, but the defense has also allowed opponents to average 448 yards.
Oklahoma State certainly benefited from some good fortune in high-variance stats of late as well. Its past three opponents went just 1-for-8 on fourth-down attempts (which led to a number of short fields) with a -4 turnover margin (3-7) — including a key pick-six.
Conversely, the opposite has been true of the Bearcats, who have certainly struggled at times during Scott Satterfield's first season, but things haven't been as bad as they may appear on the surface. They were undoubtedly outplayed by Iowa State, but the Bearcats really beat themselves in the other four losses:
- Outgained BYU, 498-295, in eight-point loss
- Outgained Miami (OH), 538-358, in OT loss
- Oklahoma had only 50 more net yards in 14-point loss
- Outgained Baylor, 450-396, in three-point loss
During their five-game losing streak, the Bearcats have only forced three turnovers while giving it away nine times for a -6 margin. That includes two massive game-swinging defensive touchdowns in one-possession losses with a BYU pick-six and a Baylor fumble return on a kickoff.
Cincinnati has also had monumental struggles in the red zone after moving the ball successfully between the 20s. The Bearcats are certainly due to get some bounces to go their way.
From a matchup perspective, both defenses have allowed a ton of explosiveness, so this could turn into a bit of a shootout.
However, the Oklahoma State passing offense ranks in the bottom three nationally in that category, which will be welcome news for a Bearcats back end that has lost an abundance of talent in recent seasons.
Additionally, Cincy's run defense has been very stout, which is now a requirement when facing Gordon and the new-look Oklahoma State offense.
Notable Nugget
The week after winning outright as an underdog, teams on a three-game winning and covering streak have gone just 6-22-2 ATS (21.4%) as a home favorite of more than a touchdown, signaling potential inflation at the top of their market value.
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Arizona State +6.5 vs. Washington State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
If it's not broken, don't fix it. I'm once again going back to my beloved Sun Devils after a sweat-free cover in Seattle in a game they probably win outright as four-touchdown underdogs if they had a competent kicker.
Even with that inspired effort that shocked a lot of people, I still believe this team remains extremely undervalued in the market after a horrifying start to the season. However, after back-to-back blowout home losses against Oklahoma State and Fresno State, the Sun Devils have covered four straight to begin conference play with relative ease.
The struggles early had more to do with extremely bad luck in terms of turnovers, field position and especially injuries. Against Fresno State, they used three quarterbacks in a game where they turned the ball over eight times, leading to their first home shutout loss since the 1980s.
Well, they have since gotten much healthier and have finally found their quarterback in Trenton Bourguet, who has a very good group of skill-position players to work with in the backfield and at wide receiver.
The defense is also one of the most underrated units in the country under new defensive coordinator Brian Ward, who actually came down to Tempe from Pullman in the offseason. As a result, he has a ton of familiarity with quarterback Cam Ward and this Washington State offense.
From a matchup perspective, the Cougars feature one of the nation's most pass-heavy offenses. That plays right into the hands of Ward's defense, which excels in coverage and bringing different pressure looks that should force Ward into key mistakes.
On the season, the Sun Devils defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in both EPA per Pass and overall explosiveness allowed, which is key against a new-look Wazzu offense that pushes the ball downfield more, ranking 28th in the country in Explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State should have success running the ball with Cameron Skattebo and company against a Washington State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate due to a major weakness at linebacker following major attrition at that position during the offseason.
I'll happily take the points here with the still-undervalued host, which still has so much potential positive regression coming their way.
Plus, this is a pretty good matchup on both sides of the ball for Arizona State, while Brian Ward's familiarity with Cam Ward should pay dividends for the defense.
Forks Up.
Notable Nugget
Weird things happen to Pac-12 teams in the desert. The Sun Devils have gone 46-31-3 (59.7%) at home in league games since 2005.
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Arizona +3.5 vs. Oregon State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Let's stay in the Copper State to back another home dog in some Pac-12 After Dark.
Hopefully, for my sake, everything continues to turn up Arizona in the sports world with the Diamondbacks also shocking the baseball world by making the World Series.
Similar to the Sun Devils, the Wildcats continue to not get enough respect in the market. This team has taken massive strides in the second year under head coach Jedd Fisch.
Their 4-3 record might not look super impressive, but they arguably should have won at USC and Mississippi State, falling short in both games in overtime. Their other loss also came by one possession against Washington.
The Wildcats easily could be sitting at 6-1 and squarely in the mix for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship.
They have seen almost no drop-off on offense after losing starting quarterback Jayden de Laura to injury. In fact, I'd actually argue that freshman Noah Fifita should remain the starter moving forward. The California native has shined in three starts — all against top-20 opponents — by throwing for eight touchdowns to just two interceptions.
On the season, Fifita has completed over 75% of his passes and ranks 12th in QBR among all FBS quarterbacks. He has complete command of this offense and makes fewer Turnover-Worthy Throws than de Laura.
It also helps to have a dynamic group of wide receivers on the outside who should torch a very vulnerable Oregon State secondary that has benefited from facing three straight freshmen who are no longer the starting quarterbacks on their respective teams. In their only two Pac-12 road games, they gave up 40 and 38 points.
The Beavers have also struggled against the run, ranking among the 15 worst teams in Rush Success Rate Allowed. That spells bad news against a very underrated and deep stable of Arizona backs who spearhead a very balanced offensive attack.
This is a very favorable matchup for Arizona against an Oregon State team that just doesn't have the same juice outside of Corvallis, where it has been a covering machine.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS teams, head coach Jonathan Smith is 11-2 ATS (84.6%) as a home favorite but just 3-5 (37.5%) when laying points away from Corvallis.
