We begin the NCAAF Week 7 slate with picks, predictions and four noon betting spots, featuring Georgia vs. Vanderbilt and Indiana vs. Michigan.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 22-17-0 +3.18 units (56.4%)
- Overall: 67-37-1 +26.60 units (64.4%)
Stuckey's 4 Noon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Indiana +34 |
  | 12 p.m. | Vanderbilt +31.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Purdue +19.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Georgia Southern +4.5 |
Indiana +34 at Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This looks like a prime opportunity to buy the Hoosiers, who have two weeks to prepare after a bye week.
The offense could also have added juice (which wouldn't take much) after Indiana fired offensive coordinator Walt Bell following its most recent loss prior to the bye.
I was never a fan of Bell, so this can only lead to better results, especially since I expect some new wrinkles and looks with the added benefit of the element of surprise in Rod Carey's first game calling plays for quarterback Tayven Jackson, who will reportedly remain the starter for now.
The Hoosiers also recently brought in former Virginia Tech head man Justin Fuente as an offensive analyst to assist the offensive staff.
The Indiana defense did at least have respectable efforts against Ohio State and Louisville, holding each to under 24 points. However, this is more about fading Michigan at such a high number, which is extremely difficult for the slow-paced Wolverines to cover with the new clock rules.
Look no further than earlier this season when Jim Harbaugh's bunch went 0-3 against the spread during the nonconference slate as favorites of 36, 38 and 40. In those three contests, they never even scored enough points to cover with outputs of 30, 35 and 31 against the subpar defenses of UNLV, Bowling Green and East Carolina.
I know the Wolverines, who continue to grow on me with each passing week, have scored plenty the past two weeks. But it still remains very difficult to cover a spread this large with how slow their offense operates against an Indiana defense that will look to limit explosive plays.
It will only take a key turnover or failed long drive with the amount of possessions I project even if the new Indiana offense doesn't have any life with the staff changes and big-play wide receiver Cam Camper likely returning from injury.
Lastly, I could also see Michigan potentially coming out a bit flat for a noon kick against lowly Indiana, which should at least come out with some extra enthusiasm off of a bye following an embarrassing loss to Maryland. That might be all it takes to stay within this number.
Notable Nugget
It's a tiny sample size, but ranked favorites of 30 or more have gone just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) against FBS opponents this season with the new clock rules.
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Vanderbilt +31.5 vs. Georgia
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Amazingly, Vanderbilt has started off the season 0-7 ATS with all seven games going over the closing total. That makes the Vandy fade and over parlay a perfect 7-0 on the year.
Offense hasn't been the issue for the Dores, who have plenty of talent at wide receiver to put points up on the board. They've also had major drop issues, which have deflated the production a bit.
The defense is undoubtedly dreadful, but Vandy has certainly been hurt by costly mistakes that have led to a number of non-offensive touchdowns that have ultimately cost it covers.
It has also been snakebitten on fourth-down attempts, going just 5-of-16 (31.2%) while allowing opponents to convert five of their seven (71.4%) — both bottom-10 rates nationally.
I just can't get to this number with a Georgia team that has shown us all season it will come out extremely flat. For reference, the historically dominant Dawgs that went on to win a national title only closed -37.5 at home last year against a Vanderbilt team that had just come off an absolutely brutal stretch of games.
This Georgia team is not at that level on either side of the ball at the moment.
The Bulldogs finally woke up last week, but that was the ultimate spot in prime time "between the hedges" against an undefeated Kentucky team. Prior to last week, they showed a major level of complacency against inferior teams that I had concerns about coming into the season after back-to-back national titles and a hilariously easy schedule.
I can see them continuing to just go through the motions until their next big game. And it doesn't get much sleepier than a noon kick against Vanderbilt after a big game in a near-empty stadium — although, there will probably be more Georgia fans than Vanderbilt ones.
I don't expect Vanderbilt to get many stops, but it has enough talent on offense to get on the board a few times to stay within this big number, especially if quarterback AJ Swann returns from injury.
There isn't a huge drop-off to Ken Seals, but Swann gives the offense a higher ceiling and he almost came back last week with head coach Clark Lea even giving him the "OR" designation on the depth chart.
Plus, sticking with the theme of this week, it's just not as easy for a slow-paced top-tier team to cover these giant numbers with the new clock rules.
Notable Nugget
In SEC games, favorites of 30 or more have gone 9-19 ATS (32.1%) since 2005, per Action Labs.
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Purdue +19.5 vs. Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
Yes, I'm starting off the day with a trio of noon dogs going up against the top three ranked teams in the country. What could possibly go wrong?
I'm just not a believer in these Buckeyes, who looked awful after the bye week against Maryland. Now, they head to West Lafayette a week before hosting Penn State in one of their two most important games of the regular season.
They could easily get caught looking past a Purdue team that will treat its biggest home game of the season as its Super Bowl.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football, but the rest of the Ohio State offense still has major issues. Kyle McCord, who is a huge downgrade from CJ Stroud, still doesn't look fully comfortable in the pocket.
Part of that can be attributed to problems along the offensive line that Ryan Day did not solve during the bye week. As a result, they just can't get the run game going either.
Just look at the body of work.
Earlier in the season, the Buckeyes struggled at times on offense against Indiana and Youngstown State. Then, against Notre Dame, they would have finished with only 10 points and 200 yards passing if the Irish hadn't dropped a wide-open interception late in the game.
Even last week against Maryland, following an off-week, they had only 10 points midway through the third quarter with seven of those 10 coming via a gifted pick-six.
In regards to Purdue, I like what I've seen in terms of improvement on offense under coordinator Graham Harrell and Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card.
The Boilermakers sit at 2-4 on the season after a loss to Iowa, but they've had some misleading final scores and close losses due to turnover and Finishing Drives misfortune.
Even last week, turnovers and a missed field goal cost them in a close loss in Iowa City despite outgaining the Hawkeyes, 343-291.
Ohio State's defense is certainly improved in its second year under coordinator Jim Knowles, but the defensive line isn't getting as much pressure as I anticipated given the talent level up front. As a result, Card should have enough success moving the ball through the air to stay within three touchdowns.
I'm a bit worried about the speed and talent advantage of the Ohio State receivers against a slow-footed Purdue secondary, but I have a lot of respect for Purdue head coach Ryan Walters, who seems to be rounding that unit into a little better form as they adjust to his scheme.
He should at least have a rock-solid defensive game plan.
Notable Nugget
Since the origin of the AP Poll in 1936, no program has more wins when unranked against top-five teams than Purdue. The Spoilermakers have 17 — six more than USC, which has the second-most with 11.
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Georgia Southern +4.5 at James Madison
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
If you're not having enough fun yet, how about a fourth noon pup taking on an undefeated team? I'm either going to look extremely smart or really dumb, but at least I'm used to the latter.
This is a huge game in the Sun Belt even if the undefeated Dukes can't play for a Sun Belt title due to an insanely archaic NCAA rule.
JMU has certainly exceeded everyone's expectations 1.5 seasons into its FBS transition, but I had it circled as a potential fade candidate after six weeks.
Yes, the Dukes have jumped out to a 5-0 start, but all four of their wins against FBS competition have come by one possession. That includes a crazy comeback in a one-point win over Virginia and a two-point victory over Troy.
They also won at Utah State by seven in a game that was tied late in the fourth quarter and held on for an eight-point home victory over South Alabama. In those four wins, they are only +31 in total net yards.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has rushed out to a 4-1 start with all four wins coming in convincing fashion. Plus, it took a road loss at Wisconsin thanks to six turnovers in an otherwise statistically even game.
Most importantly, the Eagles offense matches up extremely well with JMU. The Dukes boast one of the best defensive fronts at the Group of Five level, which has led to absolute domination against the run.
On the season, JMU ranks second in Defensive Line Yards and has held opponents to a meager 1.3 yards per carry, which leads the nation by over 0.5 yards.
However, the pass defense has struggled at times, which could spell doom against Georgia Southern's extremely pass-heavy Air Raid offense led by former Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin.
James Madison also ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in tackling, per PFF, and dead last in defensive explosiveness, so the big plays will be there for the Eagles.
On the other side of the ball, JMU wants to establish the run with its top-30 rush rate to set up the rest of its offense.
However, it ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which has led to a rushing attack that sits outside the top 100 in both EPA per Rush and Success Rate.
I just don't think this offense is as efficient as it may appear on the surface with quarterback Jordan McCloud also having 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions despite an equal number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays (five).
The JMU offense should still get its points against a subpar Georgia Southern defense, but I don't think it'll get much on the ground, which will lead to many known passing situations where McCloud is overdue for a critical mistake or two.
Ultimately, this looks like a potential shootout that could simply come down to the last team with the ball, so I'm happy to take the points here.
For what it's worth, that's exactly what happened last year in a very similar spot when the Eagles pulled out a 45-38 victory against an undefeated Dukes squad in a game that featured an astounding 1,265 yards of total offense.
Notable Nugget
Since making the FBS transition last season, James Madison has gone 13-3 straight up and 10-6 ATS.
