We continue the NCAAF Week 8 slate with picks, predictions and three evening betting spots, featuring Arizona State vs. Washington and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 27-22-0 +2.68 units (55.1%)
- Overall: 72-42-1 +26.60 units (63.2%)
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Stuckey's 3 Evening NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Michigan State +24.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | USC -6.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Arizona State +28.5 |
Michigan State +24.5 vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
Michigan has won every game by at least 25 points this season, but it's still a very methodical offense that will have trouble building significant margin with the new clock rules without turnovers and short fields, which the Wolverines have benefited from in each of their four conference victories.
In fact, their opponents have a -8 turnover margin and a 4-for-11 fourth down conversion rate compared to Michigan's 7-for-8 mark. Those things matter significantly in games with limited possessions.
I'd have to guess this is as close to the top of the market we'll get all season on Michigan, which has played a laughable schedule to get to 7-0 against the following teams:
- East Carolina
- UNLV
- Bowling Green
- Rutgers
- Nebraska
- Minnesota
- Indiana
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number, which I make closer to 20.
This is still a big-time rivalry and what will now be Michigan State's Super Bowl in a lost season. The Spartans offense also did look a lot better overall last week after making a change at quarterback and going with Katin Houser, who now has one start under his belt.
The Spartans have been bad, but they've played a pretty tough schedule to date with four losses coming against teams with a combined 22-5 record.
Plus, the Michigan State defense has played a bit better over the past two games.
The perception might be slightly different on the Spartans if they didn't blow late leads in each of their past two games on the road against Iowa and Rutgers in which they were outscored, 34-0, in the fourth quarter after holding both teams to 13 and 6 points through three quarters, respectively.
A major reason for those blown leads can be attributed to special teams blunders, which will be a concern weekly with the Spartans after losing so much talent in that department this past offseason.
I expect Sparty to come out with their hair on fire and to throw everything and the kitchen sink at their in-state rivals. It likely won't be anywhere close to enough to put a real scare into the supremely more talented Wolverines, who now sit at No. 1 overall in my latest power ratings.
However, I do think it will be enough to get off to a decent start and eventually cover what I show to be an inflated number against a Michigan team playing its eighth straight game before its bye week.
Lastly, I also show a bit of value on the under in what I project to be a lower-scoring game than the market implies, which makes the sizable underdog even more attractive.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, we've only seen a spread of over three touchdowns in this rivalry three times.
In all three instances, Michigan State covered by an average margin of just under two touchdowns and actually won one outright back in 2020.
For what it's worth, 24.5 would tie the largest spread we've seen in this matchup since 1990.
Michigan residents: Don't forget to check out local Michigan sportsbook Play Gun Lake when betting this inter-state clash. New users get $125 in bonus bets if their first $10+ wager wins!
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USC -6.5 vs. Utah
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
After an embarrassing loss in South Bend, this looks like an appetizing spot to back the home Trojans, who will be seeking double revenge for a pair of defeats at the hands of Utah last season.
Utah finds itself with a 5-1 record, but I have not been impressed by a Utes team that just has no passing offense to speak of without quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, who I assume will both remain out again this week with rumors swirling of both taking a redshirt ahead of the transition to the Big 12. They also just lost new starting tight end Thomas Yassmin to a season-ending injury.
Utah still remains a very formidable team at Rice-Eccles with one of the best home-field advantages in college football — although its three home FBS wins have come against Graham Mertz and a pair of freshman quarterbacks making their first starts in a hostile environment.
The defensive metrics look elite, but they have certainly benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses. Plus, the Utes won't have the services of star safety Cole Bishop in the first half. That could prove problematic for a pass defense that already ranks outside the top-100 in Explosiveness against a very explosive USC offense.
Plus, when the Utes have hit the highway, they've looked like a completely different team. They were dominated at Oregon State and really should've lost on the road against a bad Baylor team with a backup quarterback making his first career collegiate start.
Meanwhile, I expect USC to bounce back after an embarrassing loss at Notre Dame that really fell on the shoulders of quarterback Caleb Williams and an offense that turned the ball over five times. I'd expect a much sharper effort from the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
More importantly, the defense showed it can load the box to stop the run, holding the Irish to just 125 yards on 29 carries for an average of 4.3 yards per attempt.
Notre Dame, which has a much better quarterback and offense than Utah currently features, finished with only 251 total yards, so it was certainly a building block and encouraging sign for the much-maligned Trojan defense that can get absolutely gashed on the ground when they have to respect their opponent's aerial attack.
However, just like last week, that won't be the case against a Utah offense that remains one of only 14 teams in the country averaging under 5.0 yards per play. In comparison, the USC offense ranks third nationally at 7.8. There's a very good chance USC jumps out to an early lead against an undermanned Utes offense that simply can't keep up.
Notable Nugget
Following a loss, USC has gone 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) as a single-digit favorite against conference opponents since 2005, covering by over 10 points per game.
The Trojans are the most profitable team in the country in this spot over that period.
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Arizona State +28.5 at Washington
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a great situational spot for the Sun Devils, who come off a much-needed bye after dealing with as many injuries as any team in the country.
Plus, after a horrendous start to the season, they started playing much better in their previous three games with an easy cover against USC and a pair of field-goal losses against Colorado and California.
Meanwhile, Washington comes off one of its biggest wins in program history after beating Oregon in an absolute thriller that came right down to the wire.
There's obviously a bit of a letdown risk with the Huskies, who still have issues on defense and in the red zone with their high-powered offense that doesn't function as efficiently once the field shrinks.
Keep in mind the Ducks finished with a 541-415 total yards advantage in Seattle but simply couldn't convert on just one of their three fourth-down attempts that likely would've given them the victory.
It's also worth noting that Michael Penix Jr. got banged up toward the end of that game. I'm assuming he'll still play as the Heisman frontrunner, but head coach Kalen DeBoer might pull him a little sooner than usual in the second half with a big lead.
That would leave the backdoor wide open if necessary for an Arizona State team that's overdue to get a bounce or two to go its way.
On the season, the Sun Devils rank dead last in turnover margin, bottom-10 in opponent fourth-down conversion rate and have been one of the unluckiest teams in terms of field position.
Lastly, from a matchup perspective, the strength of this Arizona State defense lies in the secondary. That's ideal against Washington's high-powered aerial assault.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Arizona State has gone 20-8-2 ATS (71.4%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by over a touchdown per game. That includes a 2-0 mark this season in games against USC and California.
Only South Florida and Tulsa have turned a better profit for bettors in that role over that span.
