We continue a loaded NCAAF Week 4 slate with odds and five night spots, including Cal vs. Washington, Ohio State vs. Notre Dame and much more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 9-5-0 +3.38 units (64.3%)
- Overall: 54-25-1 +26.20 units (68.3%)
Stuckey's 5 Night NCAAF Week 4 Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | Georgia Tech +4.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Sam Houston +12.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Notre Dame +3.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Pitt +7.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | California +21.5 |
Georgia Tech +4.5 at Wake Forest
6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I feel like Georgia Tech is still undervalued in the market due to an offensive resurgence sparked by new coordinator Buster Faulkner, whose name will be tossed around for more high-profile jobs in the very near future.
He has this offense completely humming through three games with total yardage outputs of 474, 488 and 488 with the former two coming against Ole Miss and Louisville, which each have superior defenses to Wake Forest.
Quarterback Haynes King is in complete control of this offense thanks in large part to superb play-calling and very good protection up front, along with upgraded weapons on the outside.
Georgia Tech is also just a much better-schooled team since Brent Key took over as the interim coach for the fired Geoff Collins last year. Key has cleaned up a lot of the little things that plagued Tech during the Collins era, such as special teams blunders, clock management issues and especially penalties.
Through three games, Georgia Tech has the fewest penalties in the nation with five and only 65 penalty yards. That translates to 1.7 penalties per game — a far cry from the 8.9 it averaged in 2020 (121st in FBS).
Yes, the Ramblin' Wreck come in at 1-2 on the season, but they really should've beaten Louisville and had an easy cover on the road against Ole Miss in a very tight game until late shenanigans.
While the Yellow Jackets have played a top-30 strength of schedule to date based on my numbers, Wake Forest hasn't played anybody, ranking outside the top 160 in that same category.
The Demon Deacons have faced Vanderbilt, Old Dominion and Elon. They did cover against Vanderbilt, but that final score was a bit misleading thanks to three Vanderbilt turnovers, including a muffed punt that Wake returned for a touchdown. And last week against Old Dominion, Wake had to overcome a late third-quarter 24-7 deficit.
Georgia Tech does have some injuries and its defense does have holes, but the same holds true for Wake Forest. This could certainly turn into a high-scoring affair — I'd take a hard look at the over as well — but I make this more of a coin-flip game that could come down to whichever team has the ball last.
That said, I'm still not totally sold on Wake Forest quarterback Mitch Griffs, who has to fill the massive void left by the departed Sam Hartman, who we all see thriving in South Bend. I still need to see Griffs face better competition before I buy in.
Notable Nugget
Believe it or not, these ACC clubs have only met once over the past 12 seasons. That will change moving forward, as they will face each other on an annual basis with the new ACC scheduling format.
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Sam Houston +12.5 at Houston
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Sadly, we couldn't bet Sam Houston for a third straight week since it had a bye last week. Well, our double-digit dog darlings are back in action, as they head an hour south to take on a reeling Houston bunch.
I'm not sure what's going on with the Cougs, but something is seriously off. After a lucky win over UTSA in the season-opener in which they finished with a sub-30% post-game win probability thanks to 17 gifted points in a 17-14 victory, Houston then lost outright to Rice after falling behind 28-0.
Then, in what you'd think would be a great bounce-back spot on paper, it laid a complete egg in its Big 12 debut at home against the defending national runner-up TCU. The 36-13 final score doesn't even do the Horned Frogs justice in how much they dominated a Houston club that didn't score an offensive touchdown for the first time since 2014.
Based on some of the quotes I've seen from head coach Dana Holgorsen, he might have lost this locker room and might be on his way out the door sooner rather than later.
There's something seriously wrong with the offense, which grades out poorly across the board. The Cougars obviously miss Clayton Tune and Tank Dell — both now on NFL rosters — and Texas Tech transfer quarterback Donovan Smith has yet to live up to expectations despite flashing plenty of potential in the past. He also just might not be fully healthy, as he alluded to an oblique injury after last week's game.
That's bad news for an offense that simply can't run the ball. Through three games, the Coogs have managed only 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground, which ranks 117th in the country. The defense has also taken a step back after losing its top pass rushers and a pair of defensive backs to the NFL.
Things won't get much easier against a very stingy Sam Houston defense that has helped the Bearkats cover each of their first two games despite the offense scoring three combined points.
It's only two games, but the defensive metrics are elite, and they have looked the part.
Even more impressive is the fact that they shut down two completely different offensive attacks in BYU and Air Force, which have looked fairly competent on that side of the ball in their other games.
While the Sam Houston defense has thrived in its first two games at the FBS level, the same can't be said for the offense, which simply can't move the ball. The Bearkats rank dead last in the country in many advanced offensive metrics, but all you need to know is they rank dead last in rush yards per attempt (1.4) and their quarterback has thrown for less than 200 yards total in two games with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
So, how will they score? I'm really not sure. They did have two weeks to prepare for this game, so I'm sure they worked on that side of the ball quite a bit during a well-timed early-season bye.
You may also see a quarterback change, as former Arizona starter Grant Gunnell is on the roster. I'm not sure how you don't at least give him a shot. Regardless, the bye week should help rejuvenate this awesome defense that had to play way too many snaps over the first two weeks.
Despite the offensive concerns, I'll happily go back to the well with SHSU catching double-digits for a third straight time, especially in a game with a total of 38.
For what it's worth, Holgorsen's clubs have generally come out super uninspired and underprepared for inferior opponents. Just like we saw against Rice, his teams have a propensity for digging an early hole and trying to climb out of it against inferior competition.
I'm sure Sam Houston will come into this game with much more enthusiasm than Houston. #EatEmUpKats
This line is in a dead zone, so I'm waiting to see if it goes back up before locking in a bet. I'd play the Kats down to +11.5.
Notable Nugget
Holgorsen is just 17-27-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points in his head-coaching career.
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Notre Dame +3.5 vs. Ohio State
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
This is a rematch of last year, but these teams couldn't look any different now.
Despite having two quarterbacks that couldn't throw a birthday party, Notre Dame actually hung around with Ohio State in a very low-scoring (and boring) affair.
Well, the Irish finally have a quarterback in veteran Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, who now swings the advantage of the most important position on the field in Notre Dame's favor.
That matchup last year also marked the first-ever game as a head coach for Marcus Freeman, who has already come a long way since that loss. I'm sure he'll have a much more aggressive game plan, especially knowing he has an offense that can use the pass to set up a nasty stable of backs, led by Audric Estime, who is averaging an eye-popping 8.3 yards per carry on the season.
In fairness, the Ohio State defense is likely improved — especially on the back end — in the second year under the tutelage of highly-respected coordinator Jim Knowles.
However, from what I've seen so far in this young season, the sturdy Notre Dame offensive line (outside of one weak spot at guard) should get a push up front, enabling the Irish to sustain drives and set up the patented Hartman deep shots to a wide receiver room that has looked better than I expected.
The emergence of an actual slot receiver in converted running back Chris Tyree adds an element of explosiveness this offense sorely needed.
While Notre Dame upgraded at quarterback since last year's meeting, the same can't be said for Ohio State. After losing No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud, head coach Ryan Day just recently named Kyle McCord the full-time starter under center.
After a pair of underwhelming offensive performances, the Buckeyes finally did break out in an absolute romp over Western Kentucky last weekend, but that came against a Tops defense that I'm super down on this year. I mean, they gave up almost 400 yards rushing to South Florida in their season opener.
I'm still not fully sold on McCord. I'll make him prove he can win in a hostile environment in a major step up in competition against a stingy Notre Dame defense that should be at full strength this week after three starters sat out last week, including linebacker JD Bertrand and safety DJ Brown.
Look for Bertrand and his superb linebacker running mates — along with former Buckeye transfer defensive end Javontae Jean-Baptiste — to exploit a vulnerable Ohio State offensive line, forcing the green McCord into a key mistake or two.
In fairness, McCord doesn't have to be perfect with the best wide receiver room in the country at his disposal, but Notre Dame has as good of a cornerback duo as any team in the country in the supremely talented Benjamin Morrison and the super-experienced Cam Hart.
Keep in mind that the secondary held Stroud to only 222 yards passing with this receiving corps despite Hart not being at 100% and Morrison making his first collegiate start last season.
In what I expect to be a very close and competitive game, I'm siding with the quarterback I trust more catching a field goal-plus at home.
Notable Nugget
Ryan Day is just 4-10 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite against top-20 teams, including 1-8 over his past nine matchups. Meanwhile, quarterback Sam Hartman has covered five of his past six games as an underdog against ranked opponents.
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Pitt +7.5 vs. North Carolina
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
If you really want to hold your nose, boy, do I have an ugly buy-low spot on Pitt this weekend.
The Panthers have had almost zero production from Boston College transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The reunion with offensive coordinator Phil Cignetti, whom Jurkovec thrived under in 2020, has certainly not gone to plan so far in 2023.
Through three games, Jurkovec has gone an abysmal 35-of-75 (46.7%) for 474 yards (158 per game) with only four touchdowns to three interceptions — and most of that production came against FCS Duquesne and Cincinnati in garbage time with the game out of hand.
Meanwhile, UNC has one of the nation's top quarterbacks in Drake Maye, who has the Tar Heels off to a 3-0 start.
However, I do expect this Heels offense to ultimately take a slight step back after losing so much production at wide receiver and downgrading, in my humble opinion, at offensive coordinator from Phil Longo to Chip Lindsey.
Don't get me wrong, Maye will still put up silly numbers — but he does have four touchdowns and four interceptions through three games after a 38:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2022.
So, how can I recommend a bet with such a massive quarterback disadvantage? Well, first off and most importantly, I simply can't get to this number that I project right around -5 even if I aggressively downgrade the Pitt offense to levels we haven't ever seen under Pat Narduzzi.
Additionally, I assume the Pitt offensive game plan will rely heavily on the ground game, as it intended to do last week in Morgantown before a couple of bad Jurkovec interceptions led to its demise in a game where both teams finished with exactly 211 yards.
In that game, Pitt ran the ball on 16 of its first 17 plays before Jurkovec threw his first interception with five minutes left in the first half.
Fortunately for the Panthers, that game plan has a much better chance of working against UNC than it did against West Virginia, as the Heels have a much worse run defense.
As a result, the Panthers should find success just churning for 4-5 yards a pop on the ground in order to sustain drives and keep Maye on the sidelines for extended periods, especially with the new clock rules. That's good news for the home-running conference dog.
Also, in spite of Narduzzi's insistence that he isn't considering a quarterback change, I have to imagine he'd consider going to Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux if Jurkovec looks lost again.
Meanwhile, the Pitt defense is still solid, as that unit is pretty plug-and-play on an annual basis. The staff does tend to leave its cornerbacks on islands, which leaves them susceptible to explosive plays. That's obviously not ideal against Maye, who shreds opponents with the deep ball, but I'd have to imagine they play a little softer on the back end after last year's loss.
I could end up looking very foolish when this game ends, but it won't be the first or last time that happens. I'm just playing my number with a matchup I fancy while hoping this is the bottom of the market on the desperate Panthers after back-to-back horrible performances.
You should at least get their best effort at home against a ranked opponent that beat them by 18 last season. For what it's worth, Josh Downs and Antoine Green combined for 21 catches for 282 yards and four touchdowns in that victory. Both have since moved on to the NFL.
Pitt seems to win one of these games every year, and UNC plays some odd games against inferior competition, as we saw at home in Week 2 when it needed double overtime to beat Appalachian State.
Notable Nugget
Narduzzi is 6-1 ATS (85.7%) as a home conference underdog of at least a field goal, covering by over 12 points per game. That includes five outright victories in a row in this spot.
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California +21.5 at Washington
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Who wants to get in front of this Washington juggernaut that just put up over 700 total yards of offense despite star quarterback Michael Penix only playing less than three quarters? I might be the only idiot who raised his hand.
Cal has thrived in these spots under head coach Justin Wilcox, who uglies up the game against superior opponents with the best of them by taking away explosive plays (Cal is excelling in that department once again this year) and leaning on a ball-control offense that will feature a heavy dose of running back Jaydn Ott.
Look no further than last season when a bad Cal team lost four one-possession games against quality opponents:
- at Notre Dame
- at USC
- UCLA
- Washington
Against these same Huskies, Cal trailed, 6-0, at the half in an eventual 28-21 loss in which it turned the ball over on downs in Washington territory in the final minute.
You can even look at the game against Auburn earlier this season that ended, 15-10, in a game Cal probably should've won.
Look, to me, Washington has looked like the best team in the country top to bottom so far this season. That doesn't mean the Huskies are the best team, but they are certainly rolling.
I'm banking on Cal making this a more low-scoring affair and on the fact that this may mark the peak market value of Washington after three blowout victories over FBS teams that I'm lower than the market on when it comes to their quarterback play and defense.
The Cal defense really fell off a cliff last season, which was a bit shocking under the defensive-minded Wilcox, but it seems to be in much better shape this season.
It's worth noting that Cal listed both Ben Finley and Sam Jackson V as co-starters at quarterback this week, which I actually like since Finley is the more competent passer who can potentially get in the backdoor if need be against a banged-up Washington secondary. It also makes the preparation a touch more difficult for Washington.
Notable Nugget
Wilcox has gone 26-11-1 ATS (70.3%) as an underdog, covering by 3.75 points per game. That includes an insane 21-6 ATS mark (77.8%) when catching more than four points with an average cover margin just shy of a touchdown.
