The New Mexico State Aggies (1-4, 0-2 CUSA) and Jacksonville State Gamecocks (2-3, 1-0) meet on Wednesday, Oct. 9, in the first slate of midweek matchups in Conference USA. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Gamecocks opened conference play with a win over Kennesaw State last week to move to 2-3 overall on the year.
Meanwhile, the Aggies had the week off and enter this matchup with 4 straight losses and a 1-4 record.
Jacksonville State enters as a -20.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 59.
There's football on every night these days, so where does the betting value lie in this Wednesday night clash? Let’s break down my New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 9.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks Prediction
- Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Over 38.5
My New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the Gamecocks team total over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Odds, Line, Spread
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -105 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +1000 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -115 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -2000 |
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Spread: Jacksonville State -21.5 (-115)
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 58.5 Points (-105o / -115u)
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Moneyline: New Mexico State ML +1000 · Jacksonville State ML -2000
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
After a historic 2023 season, things haven't gone to plan in head coach Tony Sanchez's first year.
The Aggies have dropped the last four games, but there have been signs they can turn this around.
New Mexico State held a nine-point lead with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter against Liberty in Week 2 before the Flames scored two late touchdowns to complete an improbable comeback.
The Aggies most recently lit up the scoreboard for 40 points in a rivalry loss to New Mexico in their last contest. Sanchez’s squad rushed for 285 yards and averaged 7.4 yards per play in the defeat.
However, there have also been some bad performances as well. NMSU was blown out by 48 at Fresno State and held to just 152 total yards in a loss at Sam Houston.
The easy comparison is just the difference in the performances at home and on the road. Hopefully, for the Aggies' sake, the week off will improve the preparation for this midweek road trip.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview
Jacksonville State also had a memorable season in the program’s first FBS year in 2023. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the momentum hasn’t carried over into this season.
To open 2024, they have lost their first three games against Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan.
However, the schedule has lightened up over the last two weeks, and head coach Rich Rodriguez’s team has dominated.
Jacksonville State scored a combined 107 points in victories over Southern Miss and Kennesaw State. The plan of attack in those wins was spearheaded by the ground game, and I don’t see that changing here.
The Gamecocks rushed for 273 yards and five touchdowns against the Golden Eagles and followed that up with 384 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and another eight ground scores against the Owls.
I expect a veteran coach like Rodriguez to build on this success as his team gets into conference play. Ultimately, this still should be a top program in Conference USA.
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and New Mexico State match up statistically:
New Mexico State Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 79 |  |
| Pass Success | 134 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 107 | |
Jacksonville State Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 61 | 94 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 120 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (71) | 23.0 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (31) | 60% (28) |
How to Bet My New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Pick
When I look at this matchup, I don’t trust either defense to stop what the offenses want to do. However, I’m electing to back the best unit on the field: the Gamecocks offense.
My best bet is to take Jacksonville State to fly over its team total of 38.5 at BetRivers. I would bet this up to 39.5, and I don’t hate a look at rushing props for either squad.
The success Rodriguez's offense has had in the last two games won't stop against a New Mexico State team that hasn't shown much. The Gamecocks will chew up yards on the ground without much resistance.
Coming into this matchup, Jacksonville State ranks just outside the top 50 in both Rush Success and Line Yards, compared to a New Mexico State defense that sits outside the top 100 in both categories.
In fact, the Aggies have given up 277.3 rushing yards per game to FBS opponents this season. With Jacksonville State running at such a fast tempo, I could see the Aggies struggling to substitute defensive linemen, which could lead to a disaster on that side of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have also taken advantage of scoring opportunities, ranking 17th in the country in Finishing Drives. New Mexico State ranks 97th in that metric on defense while also giving up 16 rushing touchdowns on the season.
I could see a scenario where the Aggies also look to attack on the ground to keep Jacksonville State’s offense off the field. I’m just not expecting much success from that offense.
This sets up well for the Gamecocks to carry their momentum into the meat of their conference schedule. Give me Rodriguez’s offense to have a great performance on Wednesday night.
Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Over 38.5 (Play to 39.5)
How to Watch New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State
| Location: | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Betting Trends
- New Mexico State has landed 71% of the tickets and 75% of the money.
- The over has taken 73% of the bets while generating 80% of the cash.
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Weather
