Oklahoma vs Kansas Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 66.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 66.5 -115o / -105u | +275 |
The Sooners have not lost the game after the Red River Rivalry since 2014, when Kansas State emerged victorious by a single point.
Oklahoma survived a visit from UCF in Week 8, as the Knights' failed two-point conversion would have sent the undefeated Sooners to overtime. The Knights finished with more yards per play, taking advantage of scoring opportunities and turnovers.
With a bye week and Red River in the rearview mirror, the Sooners must now face a gauntlet of Big 12 teams ready to push them out of the conference.
Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is looking to break KU's streak of 18 consecutive losses to the Sooners. The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three games this season, both on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas.
Kansas returns home after a bye week looking to stay healthy at the skill positions on offense.
Leipold is on the verge of getting the Jayhawks to a second consecutive bowl game after a 14-year drought within the program. An upset over the Sooners would provide Kansas a sixth win in the final Big 12 chapter of a rivalry that dates back to 1903.
Find a betting prediction, preview and pick for Oklahoma vs. Kansas below.
Oklahoma Sooners
Sooners offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby implements one of the fastest offenses in the nation, which is perfectly suited for transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The fifth-year senior has already thrown for more than 2,100 yards in one of the nation's premier passing units.
Not only is Oklahoma among the top five in Passing Success Rate, but the offense is also 26th in pass explosives.
The explosiveness took a hit when receiver Andrel Anthony suffered a season-ending injury against Texas, removing 34 targets and 2.8 yards per route run from the offense. Nic Anderson, who caught the game-winning score against Texas, stepped up to receive his highest target share against UCF, catching five balls for 105 yards.
List something from positive from Saturday’s win over UCF.
We’ll start: Nic Anderson. ALL he does is score. pic.twitter.com/Sq5ygs9Dtk
— The REF (@KREFsports) October 24, 2023
Running back Tawee Walker is expected to return, supplying the Sooners with their most dangerous weapon in the rush attack.
Oklahoma has struggled with poor marks in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, and the offense allowed UCF to stuff nearly 40% of all rushing attempts in Week 8.
While the offense struggles to control the trench, the defense is the best in the nation when it comes to Stuff Rate.
Venables has completely turned around the Sooner's defense from a season ago. This version of Oklahoma is among the top 10 in Havoc, third downs and Finishing Drives.
Edge Ethan Downs has generated the most pressures this season at 21, supplying a combined 25 quarterback hurries with edge Rondell Bothroyd. The 4-2-5 scheme calls blitz on 41% of defensive snaps while creating pressure on 63% of attempts.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks are expected to start Jason Bean at quarterback for the fifth time this season while Jalon Daniels continues to deal with an injury.
Bean, the sixth-year senior, struggled against Oklahoma State in Week 7 with two interceptions. Despite nine passing touchdowns on the season, Bean has a nearly even distribution in big-time throws versus turnover-worthy plays.
His rushing numbers have also significantly declined, as he's averaging a full yard fewer per attempt from a season ago. Despite the lower numbers, Kansas still ranks among the top 10 in Success Rate and big-play rate.
Watch: @KU_Football WR Quentin Skinner (@qskin_10) hit 20.3 mph on this 49-yard touchdown reception from Jason Bean (@jasonbean24). #ReelSpeed#RockChalk@CoachTSamuelpic.twitter.com/qBkKqA8VYO
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 18, 2023
Another season of Kansas football has brought continued struggles on defense. Coordinator Brian Borland calls a 4-2-5 defense that runs heavy quarters and Cover 3 in the secondary.
The Jayhawks have been one of the worst teams when opponents get into scoring position, allowing 4.7 points on 38 drives beyond their own 40-yard line.
If there's one area in which Kansas has had a presence, it's Defensive Havoc. The Jayhawks have 51 tackles for loss on the season, good enough to be in the top 25 in the nation.
Oklahoma vs Kansas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Kansas match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 6 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 118 | |
Kansas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 22 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 96 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 62 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 95 | 10 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (12) | 29.5 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 53.7% (55) | 60.8% (15) |
Oklahoma vs Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
Mother Nature will play a role in Week 9, as Lawrence is forecasted for double-digit winds and a bit of precipitation. While the wind may not be strong enough to have an impact on special teams and passing, the slippery conditions could make the game explosive.
Both the Oklahoma and Kansas defenses are outside the top 80 in broken tackle rate, an issue for a Jayhawks team that's 96th in tackle grading, per PFF.
The Sooners have a much better defense when it comes to stopping explosives, ranking 17th and 26th in Rush and Pass Expected Points, respectively.
Both offenses are expected to gain plenty of available yards, but the team that cashes in on scoring chances stands the best chance to cover the spread.
Kansas ranks dead last in red-zone efficiency, allowing opponents to score on all 27 attempts. Meanwhile, Oklahoma sits 16th in Offensive Finishing Drives, averaging 4.2 points on 42 drives beyond the opponent's 40-yard line.
Consequently, Gabriel will have no issues dissecting a Kansas secondary that generally lines up in quarters coverage, a look in which he has a 62% Success Rate and plenty of explosive plays.
Action Network projects this game at Oklahoma -9 and a total of 64 — both directly in line with the market.
There's an expectation this game will play out similar to last season's matchup, where both teams gain an abundance of available yards with the red zone being the determining factor.
The downgrade at quarterback for Kansas and its inefficiencies in red-zone defense result in value on Oklahoma to cover the spread at -10 or better.
