Oregon State vs Arizona Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
A highly-ranked team from the Pacific Northwest travels to the desert for a late-night clash. What could possibly go wrong?
Arizona hosting No. 11 Oregon State has Pac-12 After Dark written all over it, and fittingly, it will be the last Pac-12 matchup between these programs.
The Beavers enter this conference game as a -3 favorite, while the over/under sits at 56.5.
Both teams were on their bye last weekend and enter in good spirits, as the Beavers are riding a three-game win streak, while the Wildcats have played well in their last three games with close losses to Washington and USC, along with a blowout road win over Washington State.
While these programs have been very familiar with the basement of the Pac-12 in recent years, this projects to be a great matchup between two good teams. Let's look at the odds for Oregon State vs. Arizona and make a pick and prediction.
Oregon State Beavers
Week 9 of the season is here, and the Oregon State Beavers have a legitimate chance to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Yes, this one-loss Oregon State team.
Head coach Jonathan Smith has worked wonders in Corvallis, and this looks to be his best team yet.
The Beavers are an excellent rushing team, and it makes perfect sense why they rank fourth in Rush Success Rate and fourth in Finishing Drives. They lean on their opponents and rush for 5.5 yards per carry, led by running back Damien Martinez, who has 676 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
DJ Uiagalelei actually leads the Beavers with five rushing scores, but his arm is what has really jump-started the Oregon State offense. After some shaky play in Week 3 and Week 4, Uiagalelei has played much better in the Beavers' three-game win streak and threw eight touchdown passes in that span.
Through seven games with DJU, Oregon State is 12th in the country at 38.1 points per game and ranks 38th or better in every relevant offensive metric.
The Beavers defense has generally held up its end of the bargain, aside from less-than-ideal outings against Washington State and Cal. Regardless, the Beavs still rank 16th in Pass Success Allowed and already have 22 sacks as a team.
Their biggest weakness is easily their rush defense that's 108th in Rush Success Allowed.
Arizona Wildcats
The last time the Wildcats stepped on the field, they sent a strong message to the Pac-12 by pounding Washington State, 44-6, on the Palouse. It was the best win in years for the program, and it's likely a big reason why Arizona is just a three-point underdog against Oregon State.
The Wildcats can straight-up run the ball. They actually rank higher than the Beavers in Rush Success Rate at No. 3 overall, and similarly to Oregon State, they run the ball for five yards a carry.
Jonah Coleman leads the way with 433 yards, but it's truly a group effort since four more players have at least 130 rushing yards.
With starter Jayden de Laura still dealing with an ankle injury, it looks like Noah Fifita will make his fourth consecutive start for Arizona.
The diminutive Fifita — listed at a generous 5-foot-11 — has stepped in just fine and kept the Wildcats in the game against Washington and then-top 10 USC. In three games, he's completing 75.2% of his throws for 946 yards, eight touchdowns and only two picks. Not too shabby for a redshirt freshman backup.
Of course, it helps to have Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing on the outside. This underrated receiver duo has combined for 1,017 yards and 13 touchdowns, and their efforts are a big reason why Arizona ranks 10th in Pass Success Rate.
Defense had been an enormous problem for the Wildcats for some time. Now, Arizona is much closer to average and ranks 61st in Rushing Success Allowed and 75th in Passing Success Allowed.
That isn't exactly the next reincarnation of the '85 Bears, but it's a solid unit that has kept the Wildcats in games.
Oregon State vs Arizona
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Arizona match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Arizona Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 36 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 46 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 51 | |
Arizona Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 19 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 42 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 101 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 11 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (111) | 27.4 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 55.8% (36) | 47.8% (107) |
Oregon State vs Arizona
Betting Pick & Prediction
The betting markets are favoring the Beavers by 3 or 3.5 points, and I don't have a good read on that. Even though Oregon State is probably better on a neutral field, Arizona being at home adds an extra variable to this game.
That said, one stat really stands out. Both of these teams operate very slowly on offense, with the Wildcats taking 27.4 seconds per play (79th in the country) and the Beavers taking 29.4 (111th).
These teams are quite literally in no rush to score, and that's why I like the under of 57.5 points.
Arizona and Oregon State are perfectly fine chewing up clock on long drives, and that type of approach will naturally suppress scoring even if the offenses are executing well.
