Penn State opens up its season making the short trip to Morgantown for a rivalry game against West Virginia.
Penn State has a lot of expectations coming into this season as it has a loaded team looking to get to the College Football Playoff.
There are coordinator changes on both sides of the ball for the Nittany Lions, and they'll have to replace some key contributors in their receiving core and on their offensive line.
They throttled West Virginia 38-15 last season in Happy Valley and will be looking to do the same on Saturday.
West Virginia is coming off its most successful season of the Neal Brown era, winning nine games and finishing inside the top 25 of the coaches poll. They're bringing back a lot on the offensive side of the ball, which will make people believe they're a live underdog here against Penn State.
There are a lot of questions, though, that need to be answered on the defensive side of the ball, especially in this first game to see if West Virginia can make some noise in the Big 12.
Here are Penn State vs. West Virginia predictions.
Penn State vs West Virginia Prediction
- Penn State vs. West Virginia Pick: Penn State -8
My Penn State vs. West Virginia best bet is on the Nittany Lions spread with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs West Virginia Odds
| Penn State Nittany Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -278 |
| WVU Mountaineers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +225 |
- Point Spread: Penn State -7.5 (-110) · West Virginia +7.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 49.5
- Moneyline: Penn State -278 · West Virginia +225
Penn State vs West Virginia Preview
Penn State Betting Preview: Kotelnicki Looks to Unlock Offense
Perhaps one of the biggest offensive coordinator changes this offseason was Andy Kotelnicki coming to Happy Valley. He worked wonders at Kansas, taking the Jayhawks from the basement to one of the top offenses in college football.
He does it by confusing the hell out of opposing defenses. He did that two years ago in Morgantown when Kansas put up 55 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play.
The Jayhawks would constantly change between different personnel formations with a ton of pre-snap motions and fakes that made it almost impossible for defenses to figure out.
Last season, Kansas was 10th in the country in Success Rate and fifth in EPA/Play.
The biggest question is how Drew Allar will translate to this offense. He was the top quarterback in his recruiting class and last season, he did an outstanding job in the short passing game.
Where Allar is limited, though, is throwing the ball deep. There weren't too many times last season where Penn State fell behind and he was forced to throw the ball long. In fact, only 9% of his pass attempts last season were over 20+ yards and he only had 12 big-time throws.
What he does do a great job of is taking care of the football, as he only had two interceptions and five turnover-worthy plays last season.
Penn State also picked up Julian Fleming from Ohio State in the transfer portal, which is a boost to its receiving core.
Penn State's defense was one of the best in the country last season and a big part of that was its defensive line. The Nittany Lions consistently controlled the trenches and shut the opposing teams' run game down. They only allowed 2.2 yards per carry, which was the best mark in college football, along with ranking second in defensive line yards.
They lose both of their starting edge rushers, but first-team All-Big Ten linebacker Abdul Carter is moving to defensive end, so they still should be one of the best defensive lines in the nation and be able to shut down the West Virginia run game.
West Virginia Betting Preview: Can Mountaineers Keep It Close?
The West Virginia offense is centered around running the football. Brown took over play-calling duties last season and it was an overwhelming success.
The Mountaineers finished 22nd in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in EPA/Rush. They bring back both of their running backs — Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson Jr. — along with 113 starts across the offensive line, so there's a lot of hype going into the season.
White is a big play waiting to happen. On over 100 carries last season, he averaged 7.7 yards per carry, with 29 of his carries going over 10+ yards. He also had a 91.6 PFF passing grade.
Donaldson is more of the power back, and even though he didn't put up near the yards per carry numbers as White, he still had 11 rushing touchdowns and is great in short-yardage situations.
Garrett Greene proved himself to be a really good passer last season, putting up an 83.3 PFF passing grade while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.
While those numbers sound good, a lot of it came against weaker competition. He put up big numbers against teams like Duquesne, Houston, TCU and Baylor, but was very average against the rest of the Mountaineers' opponents, especially against Penn State.
The biggest question marks for West Virginia are on the defensive side of the ball. It only returns five starters from last season and has a lot of inexperience.
The Mountaineers lost four of their top six tacklers from last year, but they did add a couple of transfers to help fill the void. Most notably, Ty French comes in at linebacker from Gardner-Webb, where he won the 2022 Big South Defensive Player of the Year.
It's a brand new secondary for West Virginia with a lot of guys playing the 3-3-5 defensive scheme for the first time. Aubrey Burks is moving from safety to linebacker, which means there's only one returning starter in the secondary.
Facing Kotelnicki's offense in this first game is a brutal opening.
Penn State vs West Virginia Prediction: College Football Pick
This line has been steadily coming down from where it opened. Penn State opened at a 10-point favorite, but it's been bet down to only eight at some books.
There's a lot of love for West Virginia in the market right now, but I'm not sure it's warranted. Penn State's defensive line should be able to keep West Virginia's run game at bay after allowing only 3.7 yards per carry in the win in Happy Valley last year.
The problems that exist for West Virginia are this: Its receivers really struggled versus man coverage last season, as Greene had a 62.2 PFF passing grade against that look. Penn State held him to 162 yards passing last season, primarily by blitzing and going man-to-man, which completely shut down the West Virginia passing game.
So, if West Virginia falls behind and has to throw the ball more often than it would like, its offense is going to struggle.
The other problem with West Virginia is its front seven was weak last season, ranking 94th in EPA/Rush allowed. With transfers coming in it's hoping to fix those issues, but it's going to be tough in this first game against Kotelnicki's offense (especially as it breaks in an almost entirely new secondary).
A lot of projection models — including our PRO projections — have Penn State as a double-digit favorite here on the road. So, with the line coming down towards West Virginia, I think that's created some value here on Penn State.
I like the value on the Nittany Lions at -8.
Pick: Penn State -8 Via DraftKings
How to Watch Penn State vs West Virginia Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
