There's nothing like some Conference USA football on a Thursday night. The Sam Houston Bearkats (4-0, 1-0 CUSA) will travel to El Paso, Texas, to take on the UTEP Miners (0-4, 0-1).
The Bearkats enter the matchup with a 4-1 record after an impressive comeback victory over Texas State.
Meanwhile, the Miners are searching for their first victory, and they're a program looking to get back to the promise they had just a couple of years ago.
Sam Houston is a 10.5-point favorite on the spread, and the total is set at 50.5.
Let's break down my Sam Houston vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 3.
Sam Houston vs UTEP Odds, Spread, Line
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -360 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +290 |
- Sam Houston vs UTEP Point Spread: Sam Houston -10.5 · UTEP +10.5
- Sam Houston vs UTEP Over/Under: 50.5
- Sam Houston vs UTEP Moneyline: Sam Houston ML -360 · UTEP ML +290
Sam Houston Bearkats vs UTEP Miners Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. UTEP Pick: Under 50.5 (Bet to 49.5)
My UTEP vs. Sam Houston best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Spread
I don't see value on UTEP or Sam Houston when it comes to a bet on the spread.
Over/Under
My Sam Houston vs. UTEP best bet is on the under at 50.5, which I would play down to 49.5.
Moneyline
With Sam Houston entering as a 10.5-point favorite, I don't see betting value on either side to win outright.
Prediction
My prediction is on both teams to stay under the total.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Awful Defensive Metrics
Sam Houston looked dead in the first half last week against the Bobcats. But they had a furious comeback in the second half to steal a victory at home thanks to their explosive rushing attack.
The Bearkats offense was horrific last year, and they are no powerhouse on that side of the ball.
However, their point production in 2024 suggests they might have established an identity. The Bearkats ran for 324 rushing yards their last time out, averaging over six yards per carry. They threw for just 95 yards, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It was an emotional win for Sam Houston, which leads me to believe this is a flat spot for it on a short week.
Let's face it: Motivating the Bearkats for the matchup is extremely tough, especially facing a winless, dead-in-the-water UTEP team.
The Kats' offensive numbers still need improvement. They entered the matchup outside of the bottom 80 in Passing and Rushing Success Rate. They also rank in the middle of the pack in Line Yards but are still struggling.
They run the ball 66% of the time and are 83rd in seconds per play. The clock should be churning when Sam Houston has the ball.
The one area it's excelled in offensively is Finishing Drives, where it ranks 39th in the country. When it has crossed the 40-yard line, it has resulted in a touchdown more often than not.
Defensively, the metrics are awful. The Bearkats rank outside the bottom 100 in the following defensive metrics: Line Yards (132nd), Rush Success Rate (121st) and Finishing Drives (115th).
They are 13th in PFF tackle grading and 47th in PFF coverage, but the previous stats are alarmingly bad. The Miners offense is horrifically bad, but it's worth monitoring how the Bearkats' defense holds up early in the game.
I can't lay over 10 points with Sam Houston considering its defense even in what should be a very winnable matchup. The situational spot is terrible, especially with Western Kentucky on deck.
UTEP Miners Betting Preview: A Struggling Offense
I realize UTEP is not a good football team, but the Miners' schedule thus far has yet to do them any favors. You could say UTEP lost at home to Southern Utah, and that should illustrate how bad they indeed are, but here is who else it has faced thus far: Nebraska, Liberty, and Colorado State.
Colorado State is not a top program by any stretch, but it's still above UTEP's talent level. It sounds like I'm making excuses for its poor field performance, but the teams it has faced thus far is something to keep in mind heading into the matchup.
If you think Sam Houston's defensive metrics were terrible, wait until you get ahold of these offensive metrics for UTEP. The Miners rank outside the bottom 100 in the following offensive metrics: Rush and Pass Success Rate, Havoc Allowed, Line Yards, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
Quarterback Skyler Locklear is completing 64% of his passes but has three touchdowns to four interceptions. However, Cade McConnell threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns in the Miners' last game against Colorado State.
Even more astonishing is that the offense looks to go lightning quick, as it ranks 22nd in seconds per play. That does not seem like a winning formula considering the struggles it's seen on offense for much of the season.
Defensively, it doesn't get much better. The Miners are outside the bottom 100 in Defensive Rushing and Passing Success Rate while ranking 98th in Havoc and 109th in Defensive Quality Drives.
Given how poor their offense is, the defense could be on the field for a long time, especially since they allow many of their opponents to establish solid drives most of the time.
I have no faith that this UTEP offense can put points on the board despite a decent matchup. Its lightning-quick offense could easily burn it once again.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Sam Houston match up statistically:
Sam Houston Offense vs. UTEP Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 99 |  |
| Line Yards | 63 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 109 | |
UTEP Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 131 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 68 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 77 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 127 | 126 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 87 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (83) | 24.7 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 66% (11) | 45% (122) |
How to Bet My Sam Houston vs UTEP Pick
I lean toward backing UTEP here, but I'd like to take a much safer approach and the under. I realize the Sam Houston rushing attack has a supreme matchup, but it's pretty organized on offense.
The clock should be running for most of the game, and given that the Miners love to go lightning quick, their lack of offensive success will burn them here. I expect the Bearkats to slow things down and continue to lean heavily on their rushing attack.
Besides, Sam Houston is a middling team in line yards and horrific in Havoc Allowed, so there shouldn't be too many explosive plays throughout the contest. You can grab under 50.5 right now at BetMGM, and that's what I will be looking to lock in.
Pick: Under 50.5 (Play to 49.5)
How to Watch Sam Houston vs UTEP
| Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 3 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
College Football Betting Trends for Sam Houston vs UTEP
- 73% of the bets and 73% of the money is on Sam Houston to cover the spread.
- 22% of the tickets but 72% of the money is on the under.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Weather
