Week 9's college football slate rolls on, as we turn our attention to the Saturday evening slate.
Our college football writers came through with four picks for these games under the lights: Tennessee vs. Kentucky, Colorado vs. UCLA, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin and Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss.
So, whether you're looking to bet an SEC rivalry or seeing how you can profit off of Coach Prime and the Buffs of Boulder, we have you covered.
Check out all four college football best bets for Saturday evening below — and be sure to read our top picks for Saturday's other kickoff windows.
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Saturday Evening College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday evening's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
By Stuckey
Tennessee finds itself in one of the toughest spots of the weekend. The Vols will make the trip to Lexington for their second straight SEC road game after a hard-fought loss against Alabama that came immediately after an emotional, close win against Texas A&M in Knoxville.
After facing two extremely physical opponents, fatigue could certainly bite Josh Heupel's squad on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Kentucky should be much fresher after a sorely needed bye week. The Cats should also be much healthier overall with team captain and top offensive lineman Kenneth Horsey expected to now be at 100% along with starting linebacker Trevin Wallace and key depth piece Keeshawn Silver in the interior of the defensive line after both missed the Georgia game.
Most importantly, I have heard some positive reports surrounding Devin Leary, who had been dealing with a mechanical issue caused by the pectoral injury he suffered last season at NC State.
He may really benefit from the break, so you could see more juice from this anemic passing offense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass, completion rate and Passing Success Rate if Leary's accuracy improves.
It will also help if the wide receivers can curtail the drop issues against a Tennessee secondary that could be without top cornerback Kamal Hadden, who left last week's game with an injury.
The offensive line also has dealt with a lot of shuffling up front, so that group could also look better following the bye.
Plus, this is a good matchup for the Kentucky defense, which ranks in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate and yards per carry (3.1). That's paramount against an elite Tennessee rushing attack that features the three-headed monster in the backfield of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson, who have combined to average 6.0 yards per carry on over 200 attempts.
However, in Tennessee's only two road games (also against strong run defenses), it rushed only 46 times for 172 yards for an average clip of 3.7 yards. To put those numbers in context, the former would rank in the top three nationally, while the latter would fall outside the top 100.
Now, the Kentucky pass defense has been extremely vulnerable. The Wildcats still do a decent job of preventing explosive plays, but they sit in the bottom 15 in the country in Pass Success Rate.
However, I just don't trust Joe Milton to consistently move the ball through the air without costly misfires and mistakes.
These two teams do profile pretty similarly, as Kentucky also features a strong rushing attack that ranks fifth in yards per rush and ninth in EPA per Play, primarily thanks to Ray Davis, who boasts a gaudy 22.5% explosive rate on his carries.
Tennessee has a top-10 rush defense by almost every metric, but it does rank in the bottom 15 in explosiveness allowed. While the efficiency might not be there, I expect Davis to break a couple of long runs, which could decide the outcome.
Ultimately, this is a great spot to buy Kentucky after two blowout losses prior to a much-needed bye week, which, by all indications, has served the offense well. Expect some added wrinkles and more tempo from offensive coordinator Liam Coen to go along with a potential improvement in Leary's accuracy.
A healthier offensive line and wide receiver room also won't hurt matters against a potentially gassed Tennessee defense.
Meanwhile, this is a favorable matchup for a Kentucky defense that should come out with a purpose after getting embarrassed in back-to-back outings.
Plus, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has gone 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) against ranked opponents, including 8-1 (88.9%) as a favorite or underdog of a touchdown or less.
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Colorado vs. UCLA
The Buffaloes have had an amazing start to their new-look program under Coach Prime, but they’re starting to get into the meat of their schedule.
Chip Kelly’s teams aren’t exactly known for stifling defense, but this Bruins team is an exception. In fact, I would go so far as to say that this UCLA defense has been as good as any of Kelly’s offenses certainly in Westwood, if not Oregon as well.
The Bruins rank in the top 25 of pretty much every metric I think is important: Points per Opportunity Allowed, Success Rate Allowed, explosiveness allowed and Havoc.
Meanwhile, on the other side, I think defenses know what to do to Colorado: dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides and make Sanders uncomfortable in the pocket.
With a total Havoc ranking of 10th, I fully expect the Bruins to execute that game plan to near perfection.
On offense, Bruins quarterback Dante Moore has experienced some growing pains as a freshman. He has a 66 PFF passer grade, and the Bruins' offensive metrics are uninspiring, particularly in the passing game. They rank 90th in passing plays rate, 95 in passing plays Success Rate and 104th in total Passing EPA.
I think UCLA’s defense shuts CU down, and I’m not sure UCLA is going to be setting the world on fire on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the under.
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Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
By Matt Wispe
Wisconsin had a mere seven points entering the fourth quarter against Illinois, and the ejection of Johnny Newton appeared to spark the Wisconsin offense on its way to 18 fourth-quarter points.
Wisconsin’s offense will not get any reprieve when it returns home, as it takes on an Ohio State defense that allowed just 12 points to Penn State.
The Badgers’ offensive ranks may deceive, as they rank 36th nationally with a 46% Success Rate and 32nd with 4.44 Points per Opportunity.
It’s largely driven by a running game that has a 52% Success Rate, but unlike the Wisconsin teams of years past, the Badgers are a more balanced offense with a 50% pass rate — an area that’s seen just a 40% Success Rate.
Add in the fact that both Tanner Mordecai and Chez Mellusi are injured, and there’s a justified reason to be skeptical about the Badgers offense.
They take on an Ohio State defense that ranks third in scoring defense, allowing just 10 points per game. The Buckeyes have allowed only one team (Maryland) to eclipse the 14.5-point mark for the season.
They hold opponents to a 36% Success Rate and 2.54 Points per Opportunity. And after a season of broken plays on defense, this OSU defense has allowed the sixth-fewest 20-plus yard plays allowed in the country.
There’s a strong argument to take the under 45.5 for the game, but with my expectation that Wisconsin will struggle to score, I worry about Ohio State’s offense having too many opportunities to run up the score enough to make the full-game total a major sweat.
Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Under 14.5 or Better
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Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss
By Greg Liodice
The rivalry between Ole Miss and Vanderbilt may not be a marquee matchup, but it has a storied history.
Looking at the total of 63.5, I thought it was reasonable. Last season, the Rebels and the Commodores had themselves a high-scoring game, with Ole Miss coming out on top, 52-28.
In every game this season, Vanderbilt has met the over. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, but the Commodores rank toward the bottom in every category there is, especially on the defensive end.
The Rebels, meanwhile, have built this season off explosive plays and their top-50 passing attack. What’s rather surprising to me is that the rushing attack isn’t as proficient this season.
Running back Quinshon Judkins underwhelmed for the first part of the season but is coming into his own. The Rebels' rank of 68th in Rush Success Rate can be misleading now since Judkins has put up 366 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games.
Along with that, Jaxson Dart has built an amazing chemistry with transfer Tre Harris, who averages 22 yards per carry. Harris alone can increase the score against Vanderbilt’s 128th Success Rate.
With that being said, I don’t see a world where this game doesn’t hit the over. The one thing that Vanderbilt does well is hit the overs, so I’m banking on that staying true again.
