Last week's spots finished 5-5 after an annoying day that saw teams I bet against score eight non-offensive touchdowns (to one for), including one against an underdog that went down in overtime.
Not surprisingly, we have certainly paid some hefty fees to the gambling gods so far after avoiding bad beats for almost the entirety of last season. Hopefully, our balance has been paid in full, but that's always an unknown in this gig, sadly.
Fortunately, I had a few easy wins, but, in fairness, I had some awful calls on Pittsburgh and Sam Houston. As always, last week was last week, so no sense in dwelling. We're onto the next.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, there will always be rough weeks in this gig and I won't avoid a 2-7 stinker Saturday forever, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much. Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully make you a better bettor.
For Week 5, I have highlighted my 9 favorite spots on Saturday's college football card, starting off with a noon kick followed by a trio of afternoon bets and five more in primetime.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, so I also included what number I'd play each to for your convenience.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 14-10-0 +2.88 units (58.3%)
- Overall: 59-30-1 +25.70 units (66.3%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Kentucky -1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Auburn +14.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Purdue +1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UMass -1 |
  | 6 p.m. | Ole Miss +3 |
  | 7 p.m. | Southern Miss +5.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Troy +1.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Iowa State +20 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | SMU -23 |
Kentucky -1 vs. Florida
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Coming into the year, I didn't think very highly of this Florida team and was a bit higher than the market on Kentucky. Well, I haven't seen anything substantial enough to change that stance in a material manner.
Yes, Kentucky hasn't really played anybody, so the Cats are certainly a tough team to gauge headed into this game. However, I believe Florida is currently a bit overvalued, living off of its reputation and a home win over a Tennessee team I don't think that highly of this season.
Both defenses have played well to start the season under a pair of very strong coordinators. Although, the data point for Florida against Utah's backup quarterbacks looks a lot worse now than it did at the time since the Utes offense has been stuck in the mud ever since.
Meanwhile, both offenses have looked wonky at times with new quarterbacks under center. In a game that profiles as a complete grinder where points will come at a premium, this likely comes down to which quarterback you trust more.
At under a field goal at home against a Florida team that has had major road woes of late, I'm siding with Devin Leary and the Cats.
Leary has missed some easy throws this season against subpar competition but has generally played better as the games have gone on.
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen hinted that Leary has been working through a mechanical issue after recovering from his pectoral injury. It apparently just takes him time to loosen up on his throws, which could burn the Cats down the road in SEC play, but I just don't see this Florida offense creating much margin if Leary has accuracy issues early on.
I'm also under the impression that Kentucky hasn't shown much on offense given the level of competition it has faced.
It has also dealt with some shuffling along the offensive line, which I thought had a chance to be one of the most improved units in the country at full strength after a disastrous 2022 season.
Well, it might finally have the opportunity to showcase that improvement if star offensive guard and team captain Kenneth Horsey returns from an injury suffered in the season opener. His status remains up in the air, but this was the original target return date. UK should at least get its blocking tight end back and has gained some much-needed continuity with the new alignment if he doesn't.
With Graham Mertz — who almost went to Kentucky in the offseason, oddly enough — under center, the Florida offense wants to lean heavily on its excellent running back duo and a short passing attack that doesn't take too many risks with a limited quarterback and wide receiver group that has only one legitimate threat so far in Ricky Pearsall.
Expect the Wildcats to load the box in order to take away the run, forcing Mertz to beat them through the air. Mertz, who has never really demonstrated he can do just that against a high-quality defense, will have some success with the quick passing attack, but I don't trust him to continuously drive the ball down the field without making key mistakes against an always-reliable and opportunistic UK defense.
There's a reason why Florida sits at 116th nationally in third-down conversion percentage.
While the Florida offense has lacked explosiveness, ranking 121st in that department, Kentucky's offense has lived on explosive plays. The Wildcats rank No. 1 in the country in that department, albeit against weaker competition.
That spells bad news for a Florida defense that has one primary weakness this season: stopping explosive plays. It ranks dead last among 133 FBS teams in that area.
I believe this first vs. worst matchup will ultimately decide this contest with Kentucky hitting a few explosive plays in a game where both teams will struggle to consistently move the chains.
Go Cats!
Notable Nugget
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is 9-4 against the spread (69.2%) as a small home favorite of less than four points at Kentucky, covering by an average margin of just under six points per game.
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Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
In two games against Power 5 opponents, Auburn has thrown for 150 combined yards. That's not a typo.
So, how will the Tigers score? That's honestly a good question I don't have a great answer to.
For starters, they will need to get better quarterback play from presumably Payton Thorne, who Hugh Freeze has stated will still get the nod under center this week after getting pulled at Texas A&M. Although, Thorne will likely have a short leash if he makes early mistakes and/or continues to miss wide-open wide receivers.
Regardless, Freeze may still also utilize quarterback Robby Ashford in some heavy RPO packages.
The good news is whoever is under center will get to play at home after both of those pitiful performances came on the road. Plus, Thorne has been very hit-or-miss throughout his career, so maybe you get the good version on Saturday.
Regardless, Auburn will completely rely on its ground game, led by a deep trio of backs in Jarquez Hunter, Damari Alston and Brian Battie.
Based on the early underlying metrics, that's the way to attack this Bulldogs defense. The Tigers will just need to grind this game down to a halt by leaning on the rush with a few play-action deep shots and some potential trick plays mixed in while relying on the defense that has played at a very high level to start the year.
Ultimately, this is just a play on the number, as I only have these teams separated by two touchdowns in my power ratings before adjusting for home-field advantage.
In my opinion, there are just no true elite teams this season, including Georgia. That may partly explain why top-five teams are just 4-13-2 ATS, along with the new clock rules, which should help Auburn here as well.
While still one of the best teams in the country, the Bulldogs are a far cry from that dominant unit we saw the past two seasons.
Lastly, and this is purely anecdotal, the Bulldogs just look a bit off. I don't know if it's complacency after back-to-back national titles with a joke of a schedule, but they have started way too slow out of the gates for my liking so far in 2023, which will ultimately burn them on the road in the SEC if they continue that trend.
It's also the first road start for Carson Beck, who has looked OK but unspectacular in an offense that I believe really misses offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Getting over two touchdowns in a game that should be lower-scoring is too enticing for me to pass up, even if I'm admittedly petrified of backing this Auburn offense.
I'm also buying low on Auburn after an embarrassing performance last week in College Station, where I faded the Tigers against a motivated Aggies bunch out for revenge.
Weird things happen in Jordan Hare, so I also won't be surprised if this is super tight in the fourth quarter.
I may look super foolish here if Georgia comes out with a renewed sense of urgency and suddenly turns it on for league play, but it won't be the first or last time that happens.
War Eagle!
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze owns a 26-12 ATS record (68.4%) as an underdog in his career, covering by 6.5 points per game. That includes a 9-2 ATS mark when catching more than two touchdowns with three outright victories in the past four in this spot.
Also, as a home conference underdog, Auburn has gone 42-30-1 (58.3%) since 2005.
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Purdue +1 vs. Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
A pair of teams that have disappointed to start the season will meet in West Lafayette when Purdue hosts Illinois.
I actually fancy the home team here. I just have not been impressed with Illinois this season.
As expected, the defense has taken a major step back after losing three defensive backs who went in the top 75 of the NFL Draft. That's simply not production a team of Illinois' caliber can replace in one season. On the season, Illinois ranks 97th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
That drop in efficiency hasn't surprised me, but the struggles up front have, considering that was supposed to be the strength of this unit. The Illini front seven ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Havoc Rate.
Additionally, Illinois really misses defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who turned his success in Champaign into a head-coaching job with Purdue.
His familiarity with what Bret Bielema wants to do should give the Boilermakers an edge here with a defense that certainly lacks talent at multiple spots. They've also definitely been a bit unlucky on late downs, which are a bit more erratic.
Plus, I'm not a big fan of quarterback Luke Altmyer nor the Illini wide receiver corps on a rush-first offense that really misses Chase Brown, who's now with the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the Purdue offense hasn't had any problem moving the ball under new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card. Against three Power 5 opponents and a 4-0 Fresno State squad, it has averaged just under 400 yards per game.
The Boilermakers just have not enjoyed any good fortune at the end of drives in large part due to ill-timed fumbles and fourth-down struggles (117th nationally), which are high-variance metrics. The Wisconsin loss perfectly sums up Purdue's 1-3 start to the season. It actually outgained the Badgers, 396-388, but lost by 21 due to three turnovers and a pair of failed fourth-down conversion attempts.
Consequently, Purdue ranks 120th in FBS in Points Per Opportunity.
I expect some positive regression in that department in the near term, starting this week against a very vulnerable Illinois defense, especially after the Boilers figured out some things that worked in the run game last week.
I'm not sure the market has properly downgraded Illinois enough from last year's team. There's a reason the Illini have started out 0-4 ATS on the season with a pair of sound beatings at the hands of Penn State and Kansas in addition to a pair of one-possession home wins over Group of Five schools in Florida Atlantic (with a backup quarterback) and Toledo, which would've won outright if not for a miraculous late fourth-down conversion.
Lastly, Illinois has had major discipline issues to start the season, ranking 112th in penalty yards per game. That could spell doom on the road in league play.
Ultimately, I believe this is a good spot to buy low on the Boilermakers after some misleading results and continue to fade an Illinois defense that has major issues.
Plus, Purdue will be playing its second straight home game with an extra day to prepare after taking on Wisconsin last Friday night. That additional time should benefit Walters in his quest for some revenge over his former boss.
Boiler Up!
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Purdue has been the least profitable home team in all of college football. Over that span, Purdue has gone 45-72-1 (38.5%) ATS, failing to cover by over a field goal per game.
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UMass -1 vs. Arkansas State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Arkansas State, fresh off an upset win over Southern Miss, travels to UMass for a sleepy nonconference spot before another Sun Belt clash at Troy.
This is the same Red Wolves team that lost by a combined score of 110-3 on the road against Memphis and Oklahoma to start the season.
UMass also knows which quarterback to prepare for with a full game tape of action — a luxury Southern Miss didn't have last Saturday before getting torched by true freshman dual-threat Jaylen Raynor in his first career start.
Meanwhile, UMass is certainly improved under head coach Don Brown in his second year after finally being able to build up the roster with better recruiting and an increase in scholarships. The results might not be there from a win-loss perspective, but UMass is getting closer to respectability.
After a season-opening upset victory at New Mexico State, the Minutemen have come up on the short end of the stick in a few competitive games despite dealing with a plethora of quarterback injuries.
They lost by two at Eastern Michigan on a final-minute touchdown despite outgaining the Eagles, 464-371. Then, last week against New Mexico, they fell by three points in overtime despite a whopping 495-338 total yardage advantage in large part due to failed fourth-down attempts.
I'm also under the impression that Taisun Phommachanh, who gives UMass the best chance to constantly move the ball, has a good chance of returning from injury this week.
However, if not, the other backups have gained invaluable game experience and looked more than adequate running an offense that now boasts more talent at receiver thanks to the portal in addition to a much more experienced offensive line.
The Minutemen should benefit from the return of star cornerback Jordan Mahoney, who missed last week with an injury. Mahoney, who has pro potential, is the best defender on the team. He's also the most important in Don Brown's blitz-heavy scheme that leaves cornerbacks on islands.
With Mahoney presumably returning on the outside, Brown can dial up more exotic pressure looks to confuse the true freshman making his first road start.
After a couple of flukey losses and key injuries, I think the Minutemen have some value this week against a bad Arkansas State team that could come out completely flat for this nonconference bout.
UMass may inevitably pull a UMass, but more wins should finally be on the horizon for this improved squad.
Go U!
Notable Nugget
After winning as an underdog of a touchdown or more the previous week, road teams in nonconference games have gone just 26-40 (39.4%) ATS since 2005.
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Ole Miss +3 vs. LSU
6 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I thought LSU came into the season extremely overvalued after a fairly fortunate 2022 campaign that could have looked a lot worse with just a few bounces the other way.
As a result, I'm still lower than the market on the Tigers, who beat up Grambling (who cares?) and a bad Mississippi State team I'm down on.
In their other two games, they failed to live up to oddsmakers' expectations, failing to cover by over two touchdowns against both Arkansas and Florida State.
The primary problem for the Tigers has come on defense, the biggest question mark coming into the season.
I had major concerns about the secondary, which has struggled, but even I didn't expect the entire unit to play this poorly over the first month of the season. After four games, the LSU defense ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate and in the bottom 10 nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and explosiveness.
That's not an ideal combination against a Lane Kiffin offense.
In fairness, the Ole Miss offense has not looked that crisp at times, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the injuries. It has basically played most of the season without three key pass-catchers in Tre Harris, Zakhari Franklin and Caden Prieskorn.
However, all three actually saw action in last week's game against Alabama despite being listed as doubtful. That's a very good sign heading into this matchup.
Plus, explosive running back Quinshon Judkins — the engine that makes the car go — has been banged up but hinted he may finally be back to full strength this week. Those are massive additions for an offense that still ranks in the top 10 nationally in explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, the Rebels defense has made significant strides — especially against the run — under new coordinator Pete Golding. However, it's still not an elite unit by any stretch. I don't envision Ole Miss getting very many stops against a very explosive LSU offense that has looked the part in 2023.
Ultimately, I'm buying Ole Miss at home after its loss last week against Alabama in which the Tide were playing at home for their season with a top-five defense against a shorthanded Ole Miss offense.
Plus, I still believe the market overvalues LSU.
Since I make the Rebels a minuscule favorite, I'll happily take the points (similar to Clemson vs. Florida State last weekend even though that didn't work out despite a 65% post-game win expectancy) in a matchup that could come down to whichever offense has the ball last.
Hotty Toddy!
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Ole Miss has been the most profitable underdog by a wide margin against top-15 league opponents, boasting an ATS mark of 28-14 (66.7%). That includes a 15-8 ATS (65.2%) record in Oxford.
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Southern Miss +5.5 vs. Texas State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Texas State is significantly improved under new head coach GJ Kinne, who is trying to replicate the success we saw Western Kentucky have with Bailey Zappe in a stunning one-season turnaround with a brand-new offense.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss has looked horrendous to start the season, as the offense continues to struggle and the defense appears to have taken a monumental step back after losing a number of key starters.
The Golden Eagles were super reliant on generating pressure on defense in recent years, but they just haven't found a way to replace the void left by the departed Santrell Latham, Dominic Quewon and Daylen Gill — their three top pass-rushers from a season ago.
Additionally, they sorely miss up-and-coming star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, whom Billy Napier plucked away from Hattiesburg for the same job in Gainesville.
That said, this is still a market where I'm always looking for buy-low/sell-high spots on a weekly basis, and this fits the bill. Texas State did upset Baylor to start the year, but that win looks a lot less impressive now.
Plus, the Bears didn't really know what to expect from the Bobcat offense — similar to what we saw with TCU against Colorado in Week 1.
Since then, Texas State has beaten two doormats in Jackson State and Nevada (which actually led 17-0 at the half) while losing, 17-10, at UTSA in a game where the offense could never get going against a defense that has allowed 37 and 45 to Army and Tennessee, respectively, over the past two weeks.
Simply put, this looks like too much of a market correction based on how these teams have started through four games.
After dropping three straight, including an upset loss at lowly Arkansas State to kick off Sun Belt play, I expect an inspired effort from Southern Miss, which at least finally got running back Frank Gore Jr. going last week.
Hopefully, the Nasty Boys defense shows back up and can generate pressure against a quarterback in TJ Finley who completely crumbles when under fire (bottom-15 against pressure this season, per PFF) without allowing too many explosive plays, which is my primary concern in this matchup.
The Bobcats offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in that category, while the aggressive Golden Eagles defense ranks second-to-last.
To the Top!
Notable Nugget
Home dogs following a straight-up road loss as a touchdown-plus favorite have hit at a 61% ATS clip over the past 20 seasons. Only Southern Miss fits that criteria this weekend.
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Troy +1.5 at Georgia State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
On the surface, Georgia State might look cheap as a 4-0 team at home in a league game against a 2-2 opponent. However, if you look a bit under the hood, Troy has looked a bit more impressive than its basic results.
The Trojans understandably lost on the road at Kansas State, with their other loss coming by two points to undefeated James Madison. Their two victories came over Stephen F. Austin in blowout fashion and Western Kentucky last week.
They beat the Hilltoppers by just three but absolutely dominated with almost 250 more total yards. Troy has certainly been a bit unlucky in a few areas that suggest some looming positive regression.
Meanwhile, the Panthers remain unblemished but have done so against one of the easiest schedules in the country to date with wins over Charlotte, Rhode Island, UConn and Coastal Carolina. Those four teams have a combined one FBS win — and it came against a former FCS team in its first year at the FBS level in Jacksonville State.
I have their strength of schedule ranked outside the top 150, while Troy is right around the national average.
From a matchup perspective, these two teams take different offensive approaches.
Georgia State wants to lean on its explosive rushing attack, led by dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger and running back Marcus Carroll. That style could prove problematic against a Troy defense that has excelled against the run in 2023, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Stuff Rate and Rush Success Rate.
The Trojans have shown some vulnerabilities in the secondary, but that's not as concerning against this particular opponent.
While the Panthers rely on their ground game to churn out yards and set up deep shots, the Trojans have a much higher passing frequency, utilizing the quick-passing attack of quarterback Gunnar Watson. That bodes well against an extremely vulnerable Georgia State pass defense that lost its top two defensive backs from last season.
Against the only two competent passing attacks they've faced, the Panthers allowed Coastal Carolina and Rhode Island — we're not talking about the Miami Dolphins here — to throw for over 700 combined yards.
This looks like an ideal sell-high spot for Georgia State after a pretty fraudulent 4-0 record against a bunch of Cupcake States.
I also don't mind buying a Troy team that has performed better than its final scores indicate on the road against a team that doesn't have much of a home-field advantage.
Lastly, from a pure numbers perspective, I make the Trojans a three-point favorite, so I certainly show value in the number and fancy the matchup on both sides of the ball to boot.
One Troy!
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, Sun Belt home teams have the lowest ROI of any conference since 2005. Over that span, they have gone just 295-386-8 (43.3%) for an ROI of -15.8%.
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Iowa State +20 at Oklahoma
7 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a prime spot to buy an Iowa State team that understandably struggled early in the season after dealing with off-the-field gambling-related issues leading up to the season, which ultimately forced the Cyclones to make a quarterback change.
They even had to deal with a food poisoning breakout that affected new starting quarterback Rocco Becht and leading receiver Jaylin Noel the night before a road loss at Ohio in a game Iowa State actually should have won, finishing with an 83% post-game win expectancy.
Speaking of the offense, after some inevitable early growing pains, it seemed to figure some things out last week in a 34-point outburst in a win over Oklahoma State to kick off Big 12 play.
With the running game not really functioning in an efficient manner, the Cyclones leaned more on the passing attack and seemed to find a spark that could carry into this week. Becht certainly responded, finishing 27-of-38 for 348 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, which earned him National Freshman of the Week honors.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma comes into this game sporting a 4-0 SU and ATS record after a road win at Cincinnati.
While certainly improved, I'm still not sold on the Sooners being back to their elite ways just yet.
They drilled two doormats in Tulsa (with a backup quarterback) and Arkansas State as expected but actually struggled a bit more than the final scores may indicate against Cincinnati (without its best defensive player) and SMU.
Both the Mustangs and Bearcats continuously shot themselves in the foot on offense. In those two double-digit victories, Oklahoma had a combined net yards advantage of just +47.
There are definitely still problems along the offensive line and in the secondary that the new-look Iowa State offense could potentially exploit to find pay dirt a few times. That's all it will likely take to cover this big number in a matchup that was priced around a coin-flip last year in Ames.
While its opponents have struggled to finish off drives, Oklahoma ranks in the top five nationally in Points Per Opportunity, which might not persist throughout the rest of the season based on what I've seen.
Ultimately, I think this number is too high for an Iowa State team that has thrived as a bigger underdog under head coach Matt Campbell by uglying these games up and leaning on its always-reliable defense.
It also doesn't hurt that Oklahoma has its biggest game of the year next week against Texas with major revenge on its mind after a 49-0 drubbing last season. As a result, the Sooners could come out a bit flat and could take their foot off the gas a bit earlier than usual if they build a comfortable lead in the second half.
For what it's worth, over the past 25 years, Texas and Oklahoma have gone a combined 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) the week before the Red River Rivalry.
The Sooners are also just 4-13 ATS as a home favorite the week before facing the Longhorns since 1980, and they've lost outright as favorites in each of the past two seasons in this spot on the schedule.
The last time Oklahoma was a home favorite the week before Texas actually came against Iowa State in a game the Sooners only won by seven as 31-point chalk.
Go Clones!
Notable Nugget
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS (80%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by an average margin of over eight points per game. That includes a perfect 6-0 ATS record as an underdog of more than 17 points.
Also, 4-0 ATS teams (like Oklahoma) favored by 17 or more points have gone just 14-22-1 (38.5%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by an average margin of 4.5 points.
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SMU -23 vs. Charlotte
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I hate to do this, but I'm fading Club Lit here and laying the points with SMU in a classic bounce-back spot at home against an inferior opponent.
I actually have SMU power-rated similar to Florida, which just laid 28 at home against Charlotte in a super flat spot with some key injuries and suspensions.
I think the Mustangs still have some value in the market after two high-profile road losses to TCU and Oklahoma, but I actually came away very impressed after they played the Sooners. They actually outgained Oklahoma in a game that was 14-11 midway through the fourth quarter.
The SMU defense is much better than I think anybody had anticipated, as the transfer portal additions are really working out on that side of the ball.
Conversely, the offense has not lived up to the lofty preseason expectations set for former five-star quarterback Preston Stone.
The offense just hasn't found its rhythm yet, but that should change on Saturday against a Charlotte secondary that can be attacked relentlessly.
After the loss at TCU, I'm sure this offense desperately wants to put up a big number against a bad defense — just as it did in a nice 69-0 win over Prairie View A&M after its loss to Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, this is a tough spot for Charlotte, playing its second straight road game after getting beat up a bit by an SEC opponent in Gainesville.
It's also hard to imagine the 49ers offense, which ranks dead last in third-down conversions and is still juggling quarterbacks, sustaining many drives against a vastly improved SMU defense.
Pony Up!
Notable Nugget
Since 2011, SMU has gone 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of at least two touchdowns against nonconference opponents, covering by over a touchdown per game. Only Duke (11-1-1 ATS) has turned a bigger profit in that role over that span.
