NCAAF Predictions, Saturday Afternoon Best Bets for Week 8
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting for Saturday afternoon's NCAAF matchups. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
| 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
While we await the biggest game of the day — No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas — there's still value to be had during the college football afternoon slate.
In fact, our college football experts are diving into four best bets across three different afternoon affairs, including Baylor vs. Texas Tech in the Big 12.
Dive in below for the top college football best bets for the afternoon games.
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Hawaii vs. Washington State NCAAF Best Bet & Pick
By John Feltman
It's tough to predict what type of effort we'll get from the Bows, but I know that the Cougars are an overrated football team. Not to discredit them entirely for their record, but we'll dig into that more later.
However, QB Brayden Schager draws a terrific matchup against a bad Cougs secondary. The Bows are a middling 69th in Pass Success Rate, but they’re also top-50 in Offensive Line Yards.
The Bows have struggled to sustain and finish drives, but this matchup could lift the offense. I expect few clocks to churn with the Bows on offense, mainly because both teams love to run up-tempo.
The Cougs have been a solid offensive team, and there’s no denying the metrics. They’re top-60 in the following offensive metrics:
- Rush Success Rate
- Pass Success Rate
- Finishing Drives
- Quality Drives
When they reach the 40-yard line, they’re often coming away with touchdowns. QB John Mateer has had a fine season, throwing for over 1,300 yards and 13 TD passes with four INTs.
They’re 19th in tempo, so I expect the Cougs' offense to have many possessions throughout the contest. There are many advantages in the offensive trenches, so I think Mateer should have ample time to shred the Bows' secondary.
I love the over in the matchup, as both offenses are in a position for great success. Some underlying metrics suggest both secondaries are excellent in coverage, but I think they’re going to get exposed by both quarterbacks here.
Both offenses love to run up-tempo, so we should have many possessions for each respective unit. The Bows’ offense was shut down last week, but this is a much easier matchup against the Cougs’ defense.
The number is below a critical number of 56, so I’ll lock in the over before it increases.
Expect big days from Schager and Mateer to provide most of the scoring.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 56)
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Baylor vs. Texas Tech NCAAF Best Bet & Pick
By Cody Goggin
Baylor may be 2-4 on the season — as it goes on the road against a 5-1 Texas Tech team — but there’s a reason that the Bears are only six-point underdogs.
And I think they could be live here.
Sawyer Robertson has been good at quarterback for Baylor since taking over the starting role, averaging 0.16 EPA per drop back. Because Robertson didn’t play at the beginning of the year, Baylor’s full-season numbers make it look worse than I believe it actually is as a unit.
Texas Tech’s defense has been putrid this season, ranking 81st in Success Rate allowed, 97th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Explosiveness allowed.
Against the pass, the Red Raiders are 85th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 100th in Pass PPA allowed and 128th in PFF’s Coverage grades.
On the other side of this matchup, Baylor’s defense has been impressive all season long. It ranks second in Success Rate allowed and 12th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Texas Tech passes the ball 59% of the time, while Baylor ranks fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and third in Pass PPA allowed this season.
I think that this matchup will be closer than the records make it appear, as Baylor has an offense that will be capable of putting some points on the board and a passing defense that looks to be good enough to keep Texas Tech from doing what it would like to on offense.
The Bears may not be able to pull off the outright upset on the road, but I think that they'll be able to hang around this game and keep it within a touchdown.
I like taking Baylor at +6, but I wouldn't take it higher than this key number.
Pick: Baylor +6
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New Mexico vs. Utah State NCAAF Best Bet & Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This total is set as high as we’ve seen this season in any Division I football game. Neither of these defenses can be counted on to get stops, and the opposing offenses should take full advantage.
Devon Dampier is electric and should be able to run all over this Utah State defense, similar to what UNLV did last week.
Utah State’s defense has been really up against it because it allows so much success on first downs, so its opponents are consistently in short-yardage situations.
The Aggies are just 127th in defensive EPA per rush and 133rd nationally in Defensive Rush Success Rate surrendered.
New Mexico should find success on the ground against a Utah State run defense that’s surrendered 609 rushing yards in the last two weeks.
New Mexico has multiple receiving threats that will provide difficulty for Utah State to contain, and I would suspect there to be plenty of chunk plays on the ground and through the air for UNM.
For how wonderful the offense has been, the Lobos’ defense has been really bad. The defense has yielded no less than 35 points in every game this season, and it’s surrendering 498 yards per game, with 7.7 yards per play allowed.
The last two weeks have been especially concerning, as the Lobos’ stop unit has surrendered 77 points and 948 yards against two weak offenses in New Mexico State and Air Force.
Utah State has found some unexpected success this year airing it out, and New Mexico is just 130th nationally in defensive pass EPA per play. New Mexico is also 132nd in Pass Success Rate and 83rd in pass Explosiveness surrendered on defense.
I would suspect that wide receivers Jalen Royals and Jack Hestera have big games this week for the Aggies.
These offenses are going to put on a show this week. Against significantly weaker offenses, the last two New Mexico games have seen 90 and 89 points, respectively. Utah State has allowed 112 points in the last two weeks.
I would expect each of these teams to be in the 40s in a back-and-forth game. This should be a fun one.
Pick: Over 77.5
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New Mexico vs. Utah State NCAAF Best Bet & Pick
Danny Gonzales nearly killed this program, but Devon Dampier is bringing the Lobos back to life.
The dual-threat passer has this offense striking fear into MWC competition. Bronco Mendenhall’s team is running up yards (456 YPG, 25th) and points (35.3 PPG, 24th) at levels unseen in Albuquerque.
A big reason for this is Dampier and his offensive line.
You would think that a first-year starter with his kind of mobility would be boom-or-bust — long runs and sacks are usually what you get with a green passer — but Dampier has taken just one sack all season long, keeping New Mexico on schedule and in front of the sticks.
Even with NM’s offensive glow up, this is a steep number … until you examine the Lobos’ opponent.
Utah State plays at warp speed, snapping it every 21.3 seconds (third-fastest tempo). That means extra possessions for New Mexico against Utah State’s hapless defense.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings mark USU as the worst defense in America. I tend to agree. Pick a metric and the Aggies are in the bottom 15 in the country.
(Chunk plays, a matador run defense and a complete inability to create Havoc; it’s ugly across the board for the Aggies.)
All you need to know about this defense is that it allowed 45 points and 451 total yards to Temple. If the Owls can run wild, imagine what Dampier and the Lobos will do.
This is worthy of a ladder play as well, playing it over 40.5 at -110, over 44.5 at +145 and over 50 at +225.
Pick: New Mexico Team Total Over 40.5 (Play to 41.5)
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